chris21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Grothar of Herndon said: I am not sure where you live, but for me in Herndon this is currently a non-event. Short Pump to Eastern Shore looks interesting... I think even .03 of freezing rain in these temps in dc would be more impactful than any event we’ve had. I could be wrong... just my experience with ice events with cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 310 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham- Page-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Highland- Eastern Highland-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton- 310 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain, mixed with sleet at times. Storm total ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland, northern, northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Ice Storm Warning now. However the NAM doest think so as it barely gets precip up to EZFSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Another rug pull less then 24 hours of an event lol 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, CentralVaNATS said: Ice Storm Warning now. However the NAM doest think so as it barely gets precip up to EZF Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk It gets about .2 qpf up to dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-023-024-131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.210213T1300Z-210214T1200Z/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD- Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Pennsville, Millville, Cape May Court House, and Ocean City 321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 8 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible due to icy roadways, especially Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Heres the NWS blend of models FWIW. Not sure how much of a weight this carries Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Rare instance where I’m happy to be left out. Be safe all. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Can't quite figure out why Charlottesville isn't under an ISW, ice forecast looks identical. Guess it's a certainty thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Can't quite figure out why Charlottesville isn't under an ISW, ice forecast looks identical. Guess it's a certainty thing. They can adjust those if needed. The irony is the Euro had a decent ice storm at my house and it must have been totally discounted at 24 hrs out or I would be under an ISW..less even. We are living in bizzaro world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Short Pump pummeled!! Pumpled. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Can't quite figure out why Charlottesville isn't under an ISW, ice forecast looks identical. Guess it's a certainty thing. Warning text for CHO mentions IP, which would indicate LWX doesn't have as much confidence right now for a straight freezing rain event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 This forecast is for significantly LESS ice than what Charlottesville got earlier in the year. Dec 16-17 was almost entirely ice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 These huge icers can happen but mostly not . There have been some but last time it was like what is being portrayed was 1999. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: This forecast is for significantly LESS ice than what Charlottesville got earlier in the year. Dec 16-17 was almost entirely ice here. Yeah, looking at my notes I guess there was almost .5" of ice here. It was a guesstimate based off Twitter reports but that's definitely significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Trees were snapping all throughout our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: These huge icers can happen but mostly not . There have been some but last time it was like what is being portrayed was 1999. That 99’ storm was really brutal in Bethesda. Power out for a week and extensive tree damage even though the temp warmed up to 50 the next day. Not sure anyone has been forecasting that (3/4 inch of ice)... but an RGEM/euro combo would be a warning level Ice storm in the district with temps in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-023-024-131000- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0007.210213T1300Z-210214T1200Z/ New Castle-Kent-Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Kent MD- Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-Cape May- Atlantic Coastal Cape May- Including the cities of Wilmington, Dover, Georgetown, Rehoboth Beach, Chestertown, Centreville, Easton, Denton, Pennsville, Millville, Cape May Court House, and Ocean City 321 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of southern New Jersey, northeast Maryland and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 8 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible due to icy roadways, especially Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Hopefully won’t materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 My snow/sleet/mix bag of goodies from last night is already crusted and perfect for sledding in RVA, so I’ll pass on the ice storm. Also I’m little upset that these maps now always cut off at short pump instead of RVA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Warning text for CHO mentions IP, which would indicate LWX doesn't have as much confidence right now for a straight freezing rain event. NAM twins definitely show a fair bit of sleet for most on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Rooting for sleet to win out. Located in Richmond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: NAM twins definitely show a fair bit of sleet for most on this forum. I’m mobile. How many inches for MoCo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said: I’m mobile. How many inches for MoCo? Looks like about .4" of sleet and barely any FRZA. So mostly a sleet storm. I mostly noted it because it's got quite a wide swath of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 38 minutes ago, chris21 said: That 99’ storm was really brutal in Bethesda. Power out for a week and extensive tree damage even though the temp warmed up to 50 the next day. Not sure anyone has been forecasting that (3/4 inch of ice)... but an RGEM/euro combo would be a warning level Ice storm in the district with temps in the 20s. Those are the worst! The rapid warmups cause BIG pieces to fall and can severely injure or kill people! Fortunately all our towers are free standing. The storm in 2014 started shedding ice quickly off our stacked 2 meter and 6 meter beams (boom about 60') and it sounded like horses galloping on the roof at times. There's a lexan canopy skylight over the laundry (thank goodness for that dome which is like a fighter jet canopy) as the glass ones surely would have exploded. It sounded like gunshots coming from the laundry room when those came raining down. This shows it well. 1600' TV tower guy wires shedding ice. This is extremely dangerous! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Looks like about .4" of sleet and barely any FRZA. So mostly a sleet storm. I mostly noted it because it's got quite a wide swath of sleet. The GFS is barely an event. Good trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The GFS is barely an event. Good trends so far. Yeah, not too much to speak of. Slightly drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
just654 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Sorry for the banter. But have a question. Supposed to drive to Glen Burnie from EC tomorrow at 4pm. And the BWI the following morning at 430am. Do you think both trips will be good? Or should I just drive from EC to BWI Sunday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Yeah, not too much to speak of. Slightly drier. Kind of all over the place... the para is a fair amount wetter at 18z. Gfs is a little drier but includes more sleet now. RGEM is a nasty ice storm with over .3, icon is .4 and euro is .4. 3k was a lot wetter at 18z than 12z and the NAM was pretty much the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 One more time for those in the back: .02" of freezing rain is a high-impact event if it's in the 20's and has been for hours leading up the event. That said, there is a clear signal in the CAMs, the parent NAM, the GFS para, and the 18z GFS for sleet at the start for most of the area except for southern MD where it's all ice. Having a coating of sleet first would certainly lessen the impact of freezing rain on surfaces, although I still think that it's going to be unpleasant walking or driving tomorrow and tomorrow night. 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Love how we have been reduced to rooting for sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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