frd Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 12:53 PM, CAPE said: Way too many trees here. A light ice coating might look nice and add to the winter scene. Beyond that, no thanks. Expand Me as well. Have many trees, a few damaged extensively by the March 2018 ice / storm events. I pass on ice. Ice threat looks to diminish for this weekend, and the Euro has not been that convincing with its failures of late. By the way, where the hell did all the cold go ? Seems the models can't forecast East of the Mississippi. And certainly when they forecast cold for the East do not believe it, regardless of the magnitude. Read your posts, about Nina, etc. Makes sense, but damn, there was across the board consensus form the EPS, GEFS, GEM ensembles for a period of cold that would feature below 32 degrees for days on end. And it went POOF ! I recall even mets stating the cold that was forecasted was very impressive. I have been busy at work and thank goodness. I jump off a bridge if I were tracking all these failures the last few days and going back even months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 12:53 PM, CAPE said: Way too many trees here. A light ice coating might look nice and add to the winter scene. Beyond that, no thanks. Expand Don't worry it will be 50 on Sunday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 welp almost NAM time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 1:16 PM, Awilson said: welp almost NAM time.. Expand Its uber long range HRRR time lol, In reality it fared pretty well I think for wednesday night snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 HRRR has light icing in the area saturday afternoon but its spotty...seems like decent consensus now for this to be a spotty icing event...some issues still but not all that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 1:40 PM, Baltimorewx said: HRRR has light icing in the area saturday afternoon but its spotty...seems like decent consensus now for this to be a spotty icing event...some issues still but not all that bad Expand I’m still seeing .15- .2 qpf of ice with temps of 28-29 in dc by hr. 42 with freezing rain ongoing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 1:49 PM, chris21 said: I’m still seeing .15- .2 qpf of ice with temps of 28-29 in dc by hr. 42 with freezing rain ongoing. Expand On 2/12/2021 at 1:40 PM, Baltimorewx said: HRRR has light icing in the area saturday afternoon but its spotty...seems like decent consensus now for this to be a spotty icing event...some issues still but not all that bad Expand Can't emphasize enough that even .01" of ice with a cold antecedent air mass can be an absolute nightmare on the roads, as shown in Ft Worth yesterday. As noted by @chris21the 12z HRRR verbatim is certainly a high impact event - plenty cold, and modest rates (which help accretion), but plenty dangerous on the roads and sidewalks and enough total QPF to threaten some power issues in areas where some of the (patchy) higher amounts fall. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 1:49 PM, chris21 said: I’m still seeing .15- .2 qpf of ice with temps of 28-29 in dc by hr. 42 with freezing rain ongoing. Expand Yeah its more QPF down in DC and southern MD...I posted before the run was complete...more spotty up this way though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 NAM looks to be making a comeback so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 1:57 PM, high risk said: Can't emphasize enough that even .01" of ice with a cold antecedent air mass can be an absolute nightmare on the roads, as shown in Ft Worth yesterday. As noted by @chris21the 12z HRRR verbatim is certainly a high impact event - plenty cold, and modest rates (which help accretion), but plenty dangerous on the roads and sidewalks and enough total QPF to threaten some power issues in areas where some of the (patchy) higher amounts fall. Expand My apologies, you're right...Deff looks like the biggest issues are DC-South and east but issues area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 1:57 PM, high risk said: Can't emphasize enough that even .01" of ice with a cold antecedent air mass can be an absolute nightmare on the roads, as shown in Ft Worth yesterday. As noted by @chris21the 12z HRRR verbatim is certainly a high impact event - plenty cold, and modest rates (which help accretion), but plenty dangerous on the roads and sidewalks and enough total QPF to threaten some power issues in areas where some of the (patchy) higher amounts fall. Expand Yup. Icing is an uneven distribution, and frankly 0.2" zr at 27 degrees is worse than a driving rain at 31 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:02 PM, Baltimorewx said: My apologies, you're right...Deff looks like the biggest issues are DC-South and east but issues area wide Expand No need for apologies. We're all used to hunting big QPF for winter events, and seeing some models showing 0.05 to 0.1" liquid naturally evokes a 'meh'. We all just have to remember ZR, no matter the rates, is a nightmare when you have it falling with temps in the 20s onto surfaces that are "cold" going in to the event. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:02 PM, stormtracker said: NAM looks to be making a comeback so far... Expand I know everyone is rooting against the ice storm, but as psu mentioned, a stronger wave on sat would not allow the Sunday wave enough space to amp up. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The HRRR and 3k NAM seem to agree that it is mostly freezing drizzle during the day Saturday and then there is a batch of ZR that moves through overnight. DCA might have had a sub freezing day except for the midnight high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:03 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. Icing is an uneven distribution, and frankly 0.2" zr at 27 degrees is worse than a driving rain at 31 degrees. Expand Imagine wind driven rain (35kn sustained, 55dBz) at FIFTEEN degrees F! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:27 PM, MN Transplant said: The HRRR and NAM seem to agree that it is mostly freezing drizzle during the day Saturday and then there is a batch of ZR that moves through overnight. DCA might have had a sub freezing day except for the midnight high. Expand Yes, and the NAM nest actually waits until after midnight Saturday night to get its heaviest precip going. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:35 PM, high risk said: Yes, and the NAM nest actually waits until after midnight Saturday night to get its heaviest precip going. Expand should we call this a trend setter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:35 PM, high risk said: Yes, and the NAM nest actually waits until after midnight Saturday night to get its heaviest precip going. Expand Ah yes, light ZR at night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 How does the Nam Nest ice look down in Richmond area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The 12z Nam keeps most if not all the precipitation se of WDC as opposed to the 6z run. Looks heavier than 6z but more se. Is that accurate? May be on the road tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 2:49 PM, Wonderdog said: The 12z Nam keeps most if not all the precipitation se of WDC as opposed to the 6z run. Looks heavier than 6z but more se. Is that accurate? May be on the road tomorrow. Expand until later evening...then it looks like it starts as sleet...purple to red...unless I am reading it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 We don't even do purple well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 RGEM would be over .2 qpf... a bit of sleet to freezing rain with temps around 26-29 in DC, while the icon went back to the idea of a half inch of ice with temps in the mid 20s at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 3:09 PM, chris21 said: RGEM would be over .2 qpf... a bit of sleet to freezing rain with temps around 26-29 in DC. Expand For reference, here is the winter storm / ice storm warning criteria from LWX: Quote Winter Storm Warning A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent. Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of: 1) 5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period AND/OR 2) Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines. AND/OR 3) a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind. The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period). Ice Storm Warning ¼ inch or more of ice accumulation. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 FWIW, the 12Z ICON has ~0.25-0.50" or so generally across the region through later Saturday night. Stripe of 0.50" cuts right through the DC area. The amounts are not as high or as expansive compared to 06Z, but still (and that could just be run-to-run variation). Temperatures generally in the 25-30 degree range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 3:23 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: FWIW, the 12Z ICON has ~0.25-0.50" or so generally across the region through later Saturday night. Stripe of 0.50" cuts right through the DC area. The amounts are not as high or as expansive compared to 06Z, but still (and that could just be run-to-run variation). Temperatures generally in the 25-30 degree range. Expand Tuesday looks more impressive with ice to me for DC area on 12z ICON. looks also a tad colder than Saturday/Sunday deal. you see that too? in fact it looks quite significant on second glance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 3:29 PM, BristowWx said: Tuesday looks more impressive with ice to me for DC area on 12z ICON. looks also a tad colder than Saturday/Sunday deal. you see that too? Expand Yeah, sort of noticed that. And Tuesday is looking more like a Monday night into early Tuesday event according to the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/12/2021 at 3:32 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, sort of noticed that. And Tuesday is looking more like a Monday night into early Tuesday event according to the ICON. Expand the Sunday ice might not have chance to melt away. that sort of stalled front look could yield hours of drizzle keeping the "party" going 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 IcE sToRM WaRNiNg!1!11! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS looks like a slight increase in precip through 36 hrs. Still pretty light and not much change from 6z. Should be pretty slick still! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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