EHoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Nothing gets a bust going like LWX issuing watches. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 29 minutes ago, haudidoody said: Not when it's presented in my dining room, no. Rooting hard against any ice, especially given condition of a few bent pines around my house. I'm on a four bust streak here, happy for a fifth. How far apart were your four busts?. That’s pretty impressive. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 49 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Something is and has been coming over last 10 days and for next 4. Models have not known what nor where and will not so neither do or will we. Looks like significant arctic plunge was a bust also even if two days for upper 20’s high upcoming A new method is desperately needed and I have the answer. Im wondering what the answer is. Can you enlighten me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Im wondering what the answer is. Can you enlighten me? hear me out... forecasts delivered by carrier pigeon. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: wrong thread, but... Happen to have total QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Happen to have total QPF? All frozen. It is less wet than 18z, though. I sorta assumed that was what you were really getting at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS no bueno. I don’t recall a winter like this where everything falls apart less than 48 hours to game time. What’s the point of tracking? 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 33 minutes ago, BristowWx said: GFS no bueno. I don’t recall a winter like this where everything falls apart less than 48 hours to game time. What’s the point of tracking? This! By far the most annoying winter of tracking in my life. Every single storm collapses completely within 4 days. It is Fing ridiculous. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This! By far the most annoying winter of tracking in my life. Every single storm collapses completely within 4 days. It is Fing ridiculous. Y’all shouldn’t be surprised. It’s because I’m here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 UK joins the rainstorm train. What a monumental disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1999 was worst I’ve seen. Wheaton and Kemp Mill Glenmont and west 0.25+ and 27/28. Pepco had not trimmed yet and it was a 7 day out for some. We had to move relatives , Sharp demarcation as I was living in far a nw PG which is highest point and about 5 miles east and we definitely iced at 30/31 but only about 0.1 and not hard frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: 1999 was worst I’ve seen. Wheaton and Kemp Mill Glenmont and west 0.25+ and 27/28. Pepco had not trimmed yet and it was a 7 day out for some. We had to move relatives , Sharp demarcation as I was living in far a nw PG which is highest point and about 5 miles east and we definitely iced at 30/31 but only about 0.1 and not hard frozen. Well break out your golf umbrella for this one. You are going to need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro just has like an hour or two of freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 LWX morning disco still discussing warnings despite overnight runs apparently .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... For Saturday, the next winter storm arrives, with low pressure sliding by to our southeast. Precipitation falling on the northwest side of the low will fall through an above freezing layer and into sub-freezing surface air. Guidance has continued to trend downwards in terms of QPF totals, so have come down a bit since the previous forecast. That being said, conditions will be favorable (temps in the upper 20s to near 30 and a 10-15 mph breeze) for some decent accretion rates. Taking all of this into account, have come up with a pretty wide swath of 0.1 to 0.2 inches of accretion along/east of the Blue Ridge, and an area closer to (perhaps exceeding) a quarter inch along and east of I-95. As said before, trends have been coming down in terms of moisture availability, but still on track for the Winter Storm Watch area to get a decent icing event. An upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning may bee needed on subsequent updates, but at this time, do not have the confidence to do so given the recent trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 06z 3km NAM now has 0.23" ice at DCA through 60 hours while 00z had 0.05"... expansive area of 0.20" to 0.40" on this 06z run across a majority of the LWX CWA 06z 12km NAM now has 0.1-0.2" ice along i95 corridor from BWI to EZF... S MD 0.3-0.4" ice 06z RGEM is 0.1-0.2" ice along i95 corridor BWI to EZF... just south of EZF and S MD 0.25-0.35" ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 16 hours ago, H2O said: This thread might have just saved the area from a crippling storm. Mods are heroes bump 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: Something is and has been coming over last 10 days and for next 4. Models have not known what nor where and will not so neither do or will we. Looks like significant arctic plunge was a bust also even if two days for upper 20’s high upcoming A new method is desperately needed and I have the answer. I agree with *some* of the stuff you say about model failures, so please post whatever your method is. I’ve seen you make several posts alluding to this “method”, so I would like to see if it stands up to scrutiny. Not trolling- I’m genuinely curious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, H2O said: bump It is the one reliable constant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I agree with *some* of the stuff you say about model failures, so please post whatever your method is. I’ve seen you make several posts alluding to this “method”, so I would like to see if it stands up to scrutiny. Not trolling- I’m genuinely curious. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 So many people on here don’t like ice but I love weather so much that I would definitely take a severe ice storm and enjoy it as much almost as much as a snowstorm. Pansies in here... scared of ice. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I agree with *some* of the stuff you say about model failures, so please post whatever your method is. I’ve seen you make several posts alluding to this “method”, so I would like to see if it stands up to scrutiny. Not trolling- I’m genuinely curious. Hunch? Analogues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The GFS says intermittent freezing drizzle Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 46 minutes ago, winterymix said: The GFS says intermittent freezing drizzle Sunday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 My kind of ice 'storm'. A tenth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: My kind of ice 'storm'. A tenth. My kind of ice "whimper". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, frd said: My kind of ice "whimper". Way too many trees here. A light ice coating might look nice and add to the winter scene. Beyond that, no thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Normally a day and a half out, I could look at that euro projection and be rather confident that it will at least be close to verification. Honestly though, lately, I might as well be looking at the 51 hour RAP. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Glad to see the ice forecast generally going down for tomorrow. Don’t need power outage issues. Still looks like a glaze to a .10 for a lot of us though so travel may still be iffy later tomorrow into early Sunday. Enough probably for my plow guy to salt a couple times maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I hope we see downward trends with regard to precip down here in Richmond area. The local Mets seem bullish on the ice potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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