WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Obs and discussion thread for Saturday's sleet+freezing rain event. Maybe DCA's best chance at a sub-freezing high so far this winter. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 QPF looks to be cut in half from 0z. We know where this one is going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:13 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: QPF looks to be cut in half from 0z. We know where this one is going. Expand the thing with ice is you dont need that much qpf. if its drizzle and 25...thats trouble 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:13 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: QPF looks to be cut in half from 0z. We know where this one is going. Expand We do now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 WB 12Z EURO, highs below freezing everywhere on Saturday but slowly rising to freezing by Sunday daybreak and near 40 by midday Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 This thread might have just saved the area from a crippling storm. Mods are heroes 6 2 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I understand trends but it's hard for me to believe the envelope of possibilities has no room for a minor shift of the LP to the east to ride up the coast. And how much longer do we have to endure 1009 mb storm systems? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:18 PM, Ji said: the thing with ice is you dont need that much qpf. if its drizzle and 25...thats trouble Expand this right here, 0.1" of qpf can be a nightmare if it falls at 25 degrees. It may not bring down trees, but travel will be awful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Alright we just made a thread how much longer till the storm collapses. On a more serious note it does look pretty likely at least .2 inches of ice should fall and since I have never lived through an actual ice storm what would it be like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:29 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Alright we just made a thread how much longer till the storm collapses. On a more serious note it does look pretty likely at least .2 inches of ice should fall and since I have never lived through an actual ice storm what would it be like? Expand A quarter inch of ice isn't that uncommon actually. An isolated power outage would be possible. You really don't start getting "crippling" damage until you're above a half inch of ice. Truly severe ice storms approach or exceed the 1 inch mark. Even a tenth of an inch though can cause mayhem on the roads if cold enough. Otherwise - .1-.25 ice is usually just pretty up in the trees. Usually...not always. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Definitely worth remembering that when it comes to freezing rain and temps in the 20s, even if model QPF drops from 0.4" to 0.1", it's still a high-impact event. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:34 PM, high risk said: Definitely worth remembering that when it comes to freezing rain and temps in the 20s, even if model QPF drops from 0.4" to 0.1", it's still a high-impact event. Expand I was going to ask.. does the QPF scale 1:1? Surely not, correct? For every .2 IN of QPF, it isn't .2" of ice. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:29 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Alright we just made a thread how much longer till the storm collapses. On a more serious note it does look pretty likely at least .2 inches of ice should fall and since I have never lived through an actual ice storm what would it be like? Expand Like your car and everything around you was encased in carbonite. Bring a hammer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:34 PM, high risk said: Definitely worth remembering that when it comes to freezing rain and temps in the 20s, even if model QPF drops from 0.4" to 0.1", it's still a high-impact event. Expand trend, yo. soon it will be 0.1" to tumbleweeds. frozen ones 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:36 PM, Brianonymous said: Like your car and everything around you was encased in carbonite. Bring a hammer. Expand Sounds like fun count me in. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:29 PM, SnowenOutThere said: Alright we just made a thread how much longer till the storm collapses. On a more serious note it does look pretty likely at least .2 inches of ice should fall and since I have never lived through an actual ice storm what would it be like? Expand Oh... it is a truck load of fun. I just removed 20 large maple branches/trunks from my neighbors yard and threw out my back in the process. One my favorites parts is releasing my vehicle from their ice cocoons and prying doors open just to get inside. But perhaps my most favorite part is sliding all over the place and busting my ass on the ground. And let's not forget the ice damning on roofs and stuff that will cause your house to leaks in place you never thought were possible. Actually, I am getting excited just typing this... can't wait. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:36 PM, H2O said: trend, yo. soon it will be 0.1" to tumbleweeds. frozen ones Expand Shouldn't you of all people be able to fix the moisture issue? I mean....it's in your username Back on topic - it does seem a good chunk of the area will be pretty slick Sat PM to Sun AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:34 PM, high risk said: Definitely worth remembering that when it comes to freezing rain and temps in the 20s, even if model QPF drops from 0.4" to 0.1", it's still a high-impact event. Expand Very true, it doesn't take much ice at all especially if it really is that cold. If anyone remembers the early March 2015 ice event (I think it was on the 1st, a few days before that snow we got), it was nothing heavy...light drizzle or rain, maybe some sleet as well as I recall. Temperatures were also just below freezing, not as cold as what models are indicating for this Saturday. Didn't accrue a ton of ice, but it was outright dangerous!! In broad daylight, in early March no less. ETA: Experienced a really bad ice storm in Atlanta in Jan. 1999 (not the Super Bowl one the next year). Decent precip rates just pouring into that cold air, and it accumulated quite a bit (can't remember exact amounts, but I'd say pushing half inch of ice or so at least some places). Pine trees and those southern magnolias (which keep their leaves all year) with the huge leaves got absolutely shredded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyes2theskies Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I am driving from Florida to Virginia tomorrow. When do we think the worst of the ice will hit southern VA. I am trying to time my trip its a 17 hour drive all together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:41 PM, eyes2theskies said: I am driving from Florida to Virginia tomorrow. When do we think the worst of the ice will hit southern VA. I am trying to time my trip its a 17 hour drive all together. Expand Its all clear all day tomorrow...not an issue until saturday morning maybe in VA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:21 PM, wawarriors4 said: this right here, 0.1" of qpf can be a nightmare if it falls at 25 degrees. It may not bring down trees, but travel will be awful Expand There's so much salt and sand and brine on the roads that they wouldn't need to pretreat them even if the storm dropped a foot of ice. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 7:28 PM, mattie g said: There's so much salt and sand and brine on the roads that they wouldn't need to pretreat them even if the storm dropped a foot of ice. Expand There is so much salt I am having a hard time distinguishing between salt accumulations and snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Would be kind of funny if we get a WSWatch for ice and this time it verifies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:21 PM, wawarriors4 said: this right here, 0.1" of qpf can be a nightmare if it falls at 25 degrees. It may not bring down trees, but travel will be awful Expand .02 maybe even worse. More likely to be overlooked by road crews only expecting some spotty freezing drizzle. Happened in Kansas city in 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 6:36 PM, H2O said: trend, yo. soon it will be 0.1" to tumbleweeds. frozen ones Expand If people keep complaining, it will be 33 and tumbleweeds -- just out of spite. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 From an impact size, Event #1 could be the bigger event. Prolonged, light ZR / icing events can accrete much faster than heavier precip storms because of less latent heat release and faster accumulation on exposed or elevated surfaces. Unless it's in the low 20s, rainfall rates above 0.2"/hour won't convert to ice fast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 7:48 PM, csnavywx said: If people keep complaining, it will be 33 and tumbleweeds -- just out of spite. Expand Looks dangerous, when do they issue the warnings? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 7:38 PM, yoda said: Would be kind of funny if we get a WSWatch for ice and this time it verifies Expand Or we somehow bust with 4 inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 7:33 PM, KAOS said: There is so much salt I am having a hard time distinguishing between salt accumulations and snow accumulations. Expand Fairfax County has dropped so much salt on the roads recently that Scipio Africanus doesn't have any left to sow into the fields of Carthage. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ifindppl Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 7:53 PM, mattie g said: Fairfax County has dropped so much salt on the roads recently that Scipio Africanus doesn't have any left to sow into the fields of Carthage. Expand I do not post often but as a fan of Gladiator, that is hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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