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February 10-12 event obs


snowfan
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Wow. I can’t say I’m totally shocked, but damn  I was legitimately rooting for you guys in the big cities. Can’t catch a damn break. Think folks north of 32ish will be fine column wise. I actually like @WxUSAF area for this one. Should be a good spot for QPF but remain cold enough for 90+% snow. Baltimore will be a close call but is definitely in a better spot for wave 1 than dc. 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Wow. I can’t say I’m totally shocked, but damn  I was legitimately rooting for you guys in the big cities. Can’t catch a damn break. Think folks north of 32ish will be fine column wise. I actually like @WxUSAF area for this one. Should be a good spot for QPF but remain cold enough for 90+% snow. Baltimore will be a close call but is definitely in a better spot for wave 1 than dc. 

Got to smell the sleet to get the goods? We’ll see I guess. This is a winter where you kinda just want to give up on trying forecast amounts.

40/25

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32, Light Snow.  Under a warning now.

MDZ003>005-502-WVZ050>052-504-110400-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.210211T0000Z-210211T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KLWX.WS.W.0005.210211T0000Z-210211T1500Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Eastern Mineral-
248 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland and the
  eastern panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Got to smell the sleet to get the goods? We’ll see I guess. This is a winter where you kinda just want to give up on trying forecast amounts.

40/25

I'm pretty nervous for our area. I feel like things trended in our direction suddenly for a nice event but may have trended a little too far north. If we can stay snow with solid ratios, I think it could be our best event of the winter, but the snow/rain line sure is creeping very close.

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Got to smell the sleet to get the goods? We’ll see I guess. This is a winter where you kinda just want to give up on trying forecast amounts.

40/25

Exactly. Think your area is a giant crap shoot over the next few days, but with big upside. I’m sure you’ve noticed that a majority of guidance has that second sweet spot in QPF that slices through the middle of HoCo and points east toward the bay. The GFS, which has been insanely persistent about that precip VA precip hole, has also been very consistent about this QPF jack as well. Think it may be onto something. We shall find out by tomorrow.  

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8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I'm pretty nervous for our area. I feel like things trended in our direction suddenly for a nice event but may have trended a little too far north. If we can stay snow with solid ratios, I think it could be our best event of the winter, but the snow/rain line sure is creeping very close.

I actually think you’re in an even better position being in west EC as far as thermals are concerned. I do like the northern and eastern half of HoCo for this, but as you said.... things can go very wrong, very quickly with a tiny shift in any direction. Going to be a tight rope to walk. 

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