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February 10-12 event obs


snowfan
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48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

slow death? HRRR is just getting better and better baby. DT is pulling his hair out.

1613124000-dntMU2nMzys.png

1613124000-6Wq7qV8OalY.png

The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress.  Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me. NWS appears to agree... guess we never know though. Could be a nowcast type deal 

This Afternoon
Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 
Tonight
Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 
Friday
Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. 
Friday Night
A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. 
Saturday
Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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Just now, jayyy said:

The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress.  Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me  

This Afternoon
Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 
Tonight
Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 
Friday
Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. 
Friday Night
A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. 
Saturday
Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Trust me, I'm not saying the HRRR will verify, haha. Just stating that the storm has come back a bit. EURO does bring RIC close to WSW criteria, FWIW.

1613152800-uhfFlCWEq9U.png

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47 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

slow death? HRRR is just getting better and better baby. DT is pulling his hair out.

1613124000-dntMU2nMzys.png

1613124000-6Wq7qV8OalY.png

The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress.  Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me. I guess things could shift last second and this turns into a now cast type situation.... but idk man  

This Afternoon
Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 
Tonight
Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 
Friday
Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. 
Friday Night
A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. 
Saturday
Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress.  Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me  

This Afternoon
Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 
Tonight
Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 
Friday
Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. 
Friday Night
A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. 
Saturday
Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

For pretty much every midday model run snow totals have increased compared to the last few runs before 12z. Again it won’t approach 10 inches but where he had the “bull’s-eye” it will be 3 to 6 probably.

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Trust me, I'm not saying the HRRR will verify, haha. Just stating that the storm has come back a bit. EURO does bring RIC close to WSW criteria, FWIW.

1613152800-uhfFlCWEq9U.png

Nice!!! Glad to see the euro on board. That’s definitely a good model to have on your side if there’s not much else going for you . I’ve been at work all morning and didn’t get to see much other than the UK NAM and GFS which didn’t look terribly hot. That’s good news! Definitely rooting for you all down there - this wave certainly is not for my neck of the kids (got 5.75” last night and am more than happy to share the wealth), I’m just extremely skeptical given the temp issues in NoVA DC and SoMD last night  (sleeted almost all night in Winchester) that Richmond sees 4-5”.  Anything can happen though! Never thought I’d see Baltimore out-snow PSU and CLskins during a marginal event but alas, they did last night. 

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7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress.  Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me. NWS appears to agree... guess we never know though. Could be a nowcast type deal 

This Afternoon
Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. 
Tonight
Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. 
Friday
Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. 
Friday Night
A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. 
Saturday
Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

For the record, you can be REALLY IMBY-centric. Union Bridge is likely out for tonight - but for DC south a bump north really helps them. Fingers crossed for that crew. 

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11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

For the record, you can be REALLY IMBY-centric. Union Bridge is likely out for tonight - but for DC south a bump north really helps them. Fingers crossed for that crew. 

I was up until 3 AM with the HoCo-Baltimore crew last night basking in all of their glory. I DM with people from all over the sub forum - Baltimore, DC, etc and discuss impending storms and I rarely focus on my own BY when I discuss things. I spend a good amount of time talking about central MD, VA, and other areas as well. I can’t count how many times I posted in the past few days about how Baltimore and that general area was being under forecasted and how I thought @WxUSAF was going to do well. I’m actually far less IMBY CENTRIC than most in here  

You’re not new here. you know this hobby is cut throat - and literally everyone in here is somewhat “IMBY-centric” outside of the Mets who post  here - which is perfectly fine. 

My opinion on any given storm has literally nothing to do with union bridge. I’ve been out of this second wave for days now.  I’m most certainly rooting for the southern part of the forum to cash in. Doesn’t mean I’m going to spew wishcasting nonsense. Do I hope it pans out for DC and Richmond? Yes. Absolutely. I’m just not incredibly optimistic about that based on what we saw last night is all. How much snow I personally get is irrelevant to how I analyze what I’m seeing in front of me. I could very well be wrong, but please let’s not spew that nonsense. You clearly don’t know me. 

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1 minute ago, notvirga! said:

Looking like temps will bust low today. Still freezing here. Was supposed to be 35-36 now. 

Looks like forecasted highs were fairly spot on up this way. I’m at 31 currently. Does look like temps will bust a little low closer to the cities however  

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