EHoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: reverse bust? Who wouldn't take a 1-2" late evening surprise? I would kill a man for half of that. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, snowfan said: I don’t trust this one bit but here’s the euro for wave 2. 3.3" actually seems about right for Short Pump. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 not quite sure how well this extrapolates, but water vapor imagery still shows quite a moisture fetch into the region. just need that low to trend further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, snowfan said: I don’t trust this one bit but here’s the euro for wave 2. Hmmm... Anne Arundel jackpot... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 46 minutes ago, jayyy said: “Wave 2” is dying a slow death on models. Wonder how DT is feeling looking at guidance this AM. He get rid of his 10” in Richmond idea yet Really starting to see some resemblance to 1996 in the models, at least to these tired old eyes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 48 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: slow death? HRRR is just getting better and better baby. DT is pulling his hair out. The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress. Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me. NWS appears to agree... guess we never know though. Could be a nowcast type deal This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Friday Night A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Saturday Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 lol at trusting a model that busted worse than Mike Tyson against buster douglas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, jayyy said: The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress. Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Friday Night A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Saturday Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Trust me, I'm not saying the HRRR will verify, haha. Just stating that the storm has come back a bit. EURO does bring RIC close to WSW criteria, FWIW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 47 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: slow death? HRRR is just getting better and better baby. DT is pulling his hair out. The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress. Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me. I guess things could shift last second and this turns into a now cast type situation.... but idk man This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Friday Night A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Saturday Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress. Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Friday Night A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Saturday Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. For pretty much every midday model run snow totals have increased compared to the last few runs before 12z. Again it won’t approach 10 inches but where he had the “bull’s-eye” it will be 3 to 6 probably. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 believing the euro right now be like 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Trust me, I'm not saying the HRRR will verify, haha. Just stating that the storm has come back a bit. EURO does bring RIC close to WSW criteria, FWIW. Nice!!! Glad to see the euro on board. That’s definitely a good model to have on your side if there’s not much else going for you . I’ve been at work all morning and didn’t get to see much other than the UK NAM and GFS which didn’t look terribly hot. That’s good news! Definitely rooting for you all down there - this wave certainly is not for my neck of the kids (got 5.75” last night and am more than happy to share the wealth), I’m just extremely skeptical given the temp issues in NoVA DC and SoMD last night (sleeted almost all night in Winchester) that Richmond sees 4-5”. Anything can happen though! Never thought I’d see Baltimore out-snow PSU and CLskins during a marginal event but alas, they did last night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, H2O said: believing the euro right now be like I don't wanna jinx it but this has the makings of us getting a surprise half inch up here. Expect "we can pull 3"" out of this posts within 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, jayyy said: The HRRR and what else? It looks far less impressive than it did even 2 days ago. That’s why the dropped the watches for 5+ and didn’t issue warnings for anywhere outside of the WV mountains. Advisories for Max 2” snow and a ton of slop isn’t exactly something to get giddy about, but I digress. Here’s the forecast for Richmond proper. Models outside of the HRRR don’t scream 5-10” of snow to me. NWS appears to agree... guess we never know though. Could be a nowcast type deal This Afternoon Rain. High near 39. Northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tonight Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 3am, then freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 29. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Freezing rain, mainly before 10am. High near 32. North wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Friday Night A chance of freezing rain before 3am, then a chance of freezing rain and sleet. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Saturday Freezing rain and sleet before 8am, then freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then freezing rain and sleet after 9am. High near 31. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. For the record, you can be REALLY IMBY-centric. Union Bridge is likely out for tonight - but for DC south a bump north really helps them. Fingers crossed for that crew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, EHoffman said: I don't wanna jinx it but this has the makings of us getting a surprise half inch up here. Expect "we can pull 3"" out of this posts within 8 hours. A model won't make it snow. When its on the ground then it will have happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I will say though... we seem to do way better in the DMV region when NWS airs on the side of caution and goes with low #s versus when they go for the warning - 75% of which get cancelled. Reverse psychology perhaps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, H2O said: A model won't make it snow. When its on the ground then it will have happened 100%. We all know Watches and Warnings are what makes it snow. I thought everyone knew this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: For the record, you can be REALLY IMBY-centric. Union Bridge is likely out for tonight - but for DC south a bump north really helps them. Fingers crossed for that crew. I was up until 3 AM with the HoCo-Baltimore crew last night basking in all of their glory. I DM with people from all over the sub forum - Baltimore, DC, etc and discuss impending storms and I rarely focus on my own BY when I discuss things. I spend a good amount of time talking about central MD, VA, and other areas as well. I can’t count how many times I posted in the past few days about how Baltimore and that general area was being under forecasted and how I thought @WxUSAF was going to do well. I’m actually far less IMBY CENTRIC than most in here You’re not new here. you know this hobby is cut throat - and literally everyone in here is somewhat “IMBY-centric” outside of the Mets who post here - which is perfectly fine. My opinion on any given storm has literally nothing to do with union bridge. I’ve been out of this second wave for days now. I’m most certainly rooting for the southern part of the forum to cash in. Doesn’t mean I’m going to spew wishcasting nonsense. Do I hope it pans out for DC and Richmond? Yes. Absolutely. I’m just not incredibly optimistic about that based on what we saw last night is all. How much snow I personally get is irrelevant to how I analyze what I’m seeing in front of me. I could very well be wrong, but please let’s not spew that nonsense. You clearly don’t know me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS/Euro get snow up to DC metro....The short termers are flirting with the idea for DC proper - spitballing Nothing - 50% Flurries - 30% T-1" - 15% 1"+ - 5% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: GFS/Euro get snow up to DC metro....The short termers are flirting with the idea for DC proper - spitballing Nothing - 50% Flurries - 30% T-1" - 15% 1"+ - 5% Can you conjure up enough magic to get snow here tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 If I get 20 flakes tonight, I consider that a win. That would mark the 6th day out of the last 10 or so where wintry weather has occurred. Some snow tv sounds good to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Temps falling back a bit. Nice to have a snow event that doesn't melt in 10 minutes with full sunshine and 44 degrees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Can you conjure up enough magic to get snow here tonight? Yes..working on it now... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Deck Pic said: Yes..working on it now... prepping for an obligatory deck pic tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Allegedly sleeting in Crozet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looking like temps will bust low today. Still freezing here. Was supposed to be 35-36 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, notvirga! said: Looking like temps will bust low today. Still freezing here. Was supposed to be 35-36 now. Looks like forecasted highs were fairly spot on up this way. I’m at 31 currently. Does look like temps will bust a little low closer to the cities however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentTalkie Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, The Ole Bucket said: Allegedly sleeting in Crozet. It's extremely light, but I am seeing sleet in Crozet as well. 35 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Hearing the sleet against my window in Charlottesville. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Radar looks good but will probably die to the mountains. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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