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February 10-12 event obs


snowfan
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Just now, Paleocene said:

This is what this storm looks like inside the beltway snow hole. Most of what is covering the grass was already there after the initial 5-7pm burst last night.

 

PXL_20210211_141337793_40.jpg

Hahaha same here.  Looks the same as our last "winter storm".  As someone else pointed out it has snowed 3 times now recently but never at a temperature below 32 degrees for any amount of time. 

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35 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I-70 seemed to be the literal traintracks the beefy part of the storm followed. Definitely a good amount of yellows on radar right around there last night. Curious what some of the far nothern folks ended up with that had the warning. Seemed like the heaviest ended up just south of them.

Verified the 4-8” warning with 5.75”. Didn’t quite hit 6” like I thought. I’m at 670ft elevation

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1 minute ago, ovechkin said:

I think this winter has really highlighted what really has been going on in and around the beltway for a couple of years now. We are simply damn warm. Every season. Pattern doesn’t matter.  Last 2 summers DCA is popping 90-91 when closeby places (even south) are mid 80s. We blow by forcasted highs regularly and bust way high on lows in all seasons. I’m not talking “normal,” just compared to that day’s forecast. I can’t think of a day where we ended up lower than predicted (save for the smoke days last September.)Clear nights with light north winds and DCA stays with a steady temp for hours. But full clouds in December with no sun angle? We pop 5 degrees above predicted. Yes, purely anecdotal, but we are just damn warm.  Tracking, trying to understand boundry layers etc... all fine and dandy. It’s also been pretty irrelevant.  Yes, spoken like a dumb novice I am sure. But that is really the only observation right now. 

Besides for it being 36 at DCA at 9am... whicb is our forcased high for the day. 

No question.  As others have mentioned/alluded to it will be simply be harder for us to get snow as our climate warms.   Of course it's not just a DC problem, as the years/decades pass it will creep up to colder climates.  Look at the projections of how this will affect our ski areas. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-and/climate-skiing

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1 minute ago, ovechkin said:

I think this winter has really highlighted what really has been going on in and around the beltway for a couple of years now. We are simply damn warm. Every season. Pattern doesn’t matter.  Last 2 summers DCA is popping 90-91 when closeby places (even south) are mid 80s. We blow by forcasted highs regularly and bust way high on lows in all seasons. I’m not talking “normal,” just compared to that day’s forecast. I can’t think of a day where we ended up lower than predicted (save for the smoke days last September.)Clear nights with light north winds and DCA stays with a steady temp for hours. But full clouds in December with no sun angle? We pop 5 degrees above predicted. Yes, purely anecdotal, but we are just damn warm.  Tracking, trying to understand boundry layers etc... all fine and dandy. It’s also been pretty irrelevant.  Yes, spoken like a dumb novice I am sure. But that is really the only observation right now. 

Besides for it being 36 at DCA at 9am... whicb is our forcased high for the day. 

this winter reminds me of some of the 90s storms (aka mixy).  it wouldn't surprise me if the generally above average atlantic temps (notably the gulf stream) are playing a role as well.  i think there's something to be said about starting the season off cold from canada on down for snowpack and cooler water temps.  if it's going to take longer in the season to get those variables to work in our favor, then feb could be even more of a prime climo here than before.

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5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

this winter reminds me of some of the 90s storms (aka mixy).  it wouldn't surprise me if the generally above average atlantic temps (notably the gulf stream) are playing a role as well.  i think there's something to be said about starting the season off cold from canada on down for snowpack and cooler water temps.  if it's going to take longer in the season to get those variables to work in our favor, then feb could be even more of a prime climo here than before.

This could also be why March has become more of a winter month in dc lately.

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could be.  hard to tell, but we've never exactly been a ski town even before all the climo talk, so any 1-2 degree difference is pretty huge here and really that played out to a tee the last couple of storms where upstairs was cold, but we had just enough above surface temps/thin layer to turn what could have been a 2-4/3-6" event (not including what was wiped off a snowboard, but what is actually currently on the ground) into a sloppy mess.  elevation always mattered, but it might matter more going forward.  it's an interesting topic, so not really trying to ruin the mood lol.  hopefully one of the next systems can work out.

 

edit: meant to reply to chris lol.

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45 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

I think this winter has really highlighted what really has been going on in and around the beltway for a couple of years now. We are simply damn warm. Every season. Pattern doesn’t matter.  Last 2 summers DCA is popping 90-91 when closeby places (even south) are mid 80s. We blow by forcasted highs regularly and bust way high on lows in all seasons. I’m not talking “normal,” just compared to that day’s forecast. I can’t think of a day where we ended up lower than predicted (save for the smoke days last September.)Clear nights with light north winds and DCA stays with a steady temp for hours. But full clouds in December with no sun angle? We pop 5 degrees above predicted. Yes, purely anecdotal, but we are just damn warm.  Tracking, trying to understand boundry layers etc... all fine and dandy. It’s also been pretty irrelevant.  Yes, spoken like a dumb novice I am sure. But that is really the only observation right now. 

Besides for it being 36 at DCA at 9am... whicb is our forcased high for the day. 

Honestly, nothing unexpected with these storms given history. I lived not far from DCA for 15 years starting in the early 2000s and what you're describing is SOP. And the orientation and track of storms this year has not been good for areas around and below DCA's latitude. It's not just BL temps that have been poor, the upper levels haven't worked out either. We're not doing any better out here in Fairfax.

We had less than DCA here for this one... about 0.1" at best.

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1 hour ago, osfan24 said:

I-70 seemed to be the literal traintracks the beefy part of the storm followed. Definitely a good amount of yellows on radar right around there last night. Curious what some of the far nothern folks ended up with that had the warning. Seemed like the heaviest ended up just south of them.

About 10 mins north of Frederick here, just by eyeballing it looks like about 4 - 5 inches fell overnight.  So yeah warning criteria was met, and NAM was pretty close, just a hair under maybe.

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1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Hmm. 6Z GFS wants to get me back in the snow with the second wave now. I am only looking at the American models from now on :)

The American programmers who enter their own data into the models know our climate better, so they’re able to get results that better reflect reality around here.

That’s how it works...right?

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