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OBS and nowcast mainly midnight - Noon Thursday Feb 11


wdrag
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226PM Update: Not changing the thread but if I had to do it over, I might start the snow as early as 930 PM western part and midnight eastern. Also, I'd probably boost the snowfall expectations to widespread 1-3" NJ/PA/LI part of the forum with at least 1 inch NYC, and increase se NYS-CT to trace far north to 1.5inch far south.  Minor roughly 6-9 hour snowfall.  Should look pretty in the early morning, provided you don't have to drive in it.  Not impossible to see a half hour of moderate 1/2SM snow.  

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The first of a series of successive snow-ice events for LI.  On-going threads will provide an attempt at future reality detail for each.

Modeling has drifted north for the first of 2,  or maybe even 3 in our NYC sub forum for the on-going 11-13th thread. 

Expect 1/2-2" from Scranton PA to NYC-LI southward overnight into Thursday morning with possible spot 3" south of I78.  Untreated surfaces will be slippery and it's likely this will have some minor impact on parts of the area Thursday morning commute, a few accidents and delays. Not major but like the Tuesday the 9th occurrence just north and west of NYC, except further south into the heart of the NYC metro area. There is a chance of some 3/4mile light snow with this event as a couple of bands are indicated and snow growth potential is modest but exists. The best axis? Not necessarily southern the edge of the subforum. Maybe we'll know later this Wednesday evening?

Amounts in se NYS-CT and northern Sussex County NJ probably a Trace to 1". Less impact there. 

Snow start time may be 11PM ish for the western parts of the forum but most of the snow should occur in the midnight to 8AM time frame Thursday. 

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749P: Added OKX and PHI snow forecasts to cover the forum and note that advisories are posted for LI/ and much of NJ.  Back in the morning. 

 

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Screen Shot 2021-02-10 at 7.46.33 PM.png

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2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Coming down pretty nicely here.  I never learned how to eyeball light vs. med. vs. heavy, but I'll call this the low end of moderate.

I use visibility markers using blocks in the city. One of the easiest places to do it. Looks like it’s snowing much harder in the southern part of the city vs. northern. 

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I use visibility markers using blocks in the city. One of the easiest places to do it. Looks like it’s snowing much harder in the southern part of the city vs. northern. 

Third time already that the snow plow has passed my block here in south Brooklyn 

 

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