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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Just to touch on this again.  I have been thinking about it and am struggling to remember the last time that a lake enhanced event on the southern/western shore had ~20-22C delta T in place for basically the entire duration of the synoptic system.  I'm sure it happens every once in a while but it's far more common to see that toward the tail end of a system as CAA kicks in.  Some models are stingy with the inland penetration of the band but the boundary layer flow looks good enough to get it at least several miles inland imo.  At least I hope lol

 

F_61889.jpg

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13 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

 

F_61889.jpg

Hope so.  I am a little paranoid about the band hanging to my east and then shifting westward through here more quickly than I'd like.  Also some indications of mesolow development which can screw with things.  I only wish we had this setup a month ago.  Would've been talking about even higher Delta T values with that good dgz/omega overlap.

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31 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Mean up to 7 (including tonight). Spread is wide tho. 4-12

Nam looks a bit better with precip more NW with similar L placement through 48

in the end have to hope for the intial Sunday PM wave. The 3rd wave on the train is DOA as that dam high is dominant. Left with only a lake effect dream. But folks south and east deserve their time. 

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15 minutes ago, Baum said:

in the end have to hope for the intial Sunday PM wave. The 3rd wave on the train is DOA as that dam high is dominant. Left with only a lake effect dream. But folks south and east deserve their time. 

Speaking of lake effect dream.  This is just to 12z Mon.  Band is pointed toward Lake county IN at end of run.

snku_024h.us_mw.thumb.png.96d81f1517b60f56445e4c4053446c1e.png

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Will be curious to see if LOT pulls the trigger on a winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the overnight package or later tomorrow to account for the rather solid lake enhanced signal.  Then perhaps it's advisory for a good chunk of the cwa for Sun-Mon, especially since the roads will probably be sh!t with such cold temps.

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While I don't have the courage of Alek to come out with an exact number, I do like 6"+ here.  I also think somebody in the LOT cwa will see double digits out of this... the synoptic alone probably won't be enough to get double digits that far north so it may need to be the synoptic/lake combo, which would mean somewhere in Lake/Porter and possibly the Illinois shore.  If the lake effect stalls out for a long time and goes crazy, then you couldn't rule out isolated amounts of 18-24" somewhere in those counties.  That is a high end/low probability scenario though.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

While I don't have the courage of Alek to come out with an exact number, I do like 6"+ here.  I also think somebody in the LOT cwa will see double digits out of this... the synoptic alone probably won't be enough to get double digits that far north so it may need to be the synoptic/lake combo, which would mean somewhere in Lake/Porter and possibly the Illinois shore.  If the lake effect stalls out for a long time and goes crazy, then you couldn't rule out isolated amounts of 18-24" somewhere in those counties.  That is a high end/low probability scenario though.

ukie is liking the same areas

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9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

ukie is liking the same areas

Subtract a little bit for tonight/Saturday, but that's a hell of a signal for a global model and considering what overall ratios are likely to be in the synoptic and lake effect, this verbatim is probably the 18+ scenario.

qpf_acc.us_mw.thumb.png.5df2717dfe69a59e147179a63513f16b.png

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47 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

I concede to yet another 6-7 day forecast that got my hopes up. At this point I'd rather see enough of a lapse in Winter to wash my truck. Car washes are all shut down with the deep cold, could use a run through two or three timea

 

 

You and me both man. Is it tornado season yet?

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