fyrfyter Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 That’s a rarity down there. Someone posted elsewhere that his wife has only seen snow 3 times in her life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just to touch on this again. I have been thinking about it and am struggling to remember the last time that a lake enhanced event on the southern/western shore had ~20-22C delta T in place for basically the entire duration of the synoptic system. I'm sure it happens every once in a while but it's far more common to see that toward the tail end of a system as CAA kicks in. Some models are stingy with the inland penetration of the band but the boundary layer flow looks good enough to get it at least several miles inland imo. At least I hope lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Did KIND drop their Winter Storm Watch ? I'm not seeing it anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snownado said: Did KIND drop their Winter Storm Watch ? I'm not seeing it anymore. It's still there. Prepare 2 b buried 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Snownado said: Did KIND drop their Winter Storm Watch ? I'm not seeing it anymore. They did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 There’s a bug in the national map that is causing some issues. Last time it looked like ILN had dropped theirs and they had not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Kuchera from the GFSv16 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Hope so. I am a little paranoid about the band hanging to my east and then shifting westward through here more quickly than I'd like. Also some indications of mesolow development which can screw with things. I only wish we had this setup a month ago. Would've been talking about even higher Delta T values with that good dgz/omega overlap. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Kuchera from the GFSv16 18z run. Nice. Why is the GFS Op always bad at 18z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 bankin on lake effect snow on the west shore of Lake MIchigan 84 hours out is a losers game. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Considering the aggressiveness of the HRRR with lake effect/enhancement this winter, it'll be interesting to see what it does with this one when it gets in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 37 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Nice. Why is the GFS Op always bad at 18z? Last I heard, and this may have changed, but they used to not use steering currents in the 06z & 18z model runs to save money in the simulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Plumes are good?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 38 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Plumes are good?! Mean up to 7 (including tonight). Spread is wide tho. 4-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 31 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said: Mean up to 7 (including tonight). Spread is wide tho. 4-12 Nam looks a bit better with precip more NW with similar L placement through 48 in the end have to hope for the intial Sunday PM wave. The 3rd wave on the train is DOA as that dam high is dominant. Left with only a lake effect dream. But folks south and east deserve their time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 41 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Plumes are good?! Mean over 6” out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, Baum said: in the end have to hope for the intial Sunday PM wave. The 3rd wave on the train is DOA as that dam high is dominant. Left with only a lake effect dream. But folks south and east deserve their time. Speaking of lake effect dream. This is just to 12z Mon. Band is pointed toward Lake county IN at end of run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Difference between the Kuchera Snowfall from WxBell and Pivotal Weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Will be curious to see if LOT pulls the trigger on a winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the overnight package or later tomorrow to account for the rather solid lake enhanced signal. Then perhaps it's advisory for a good chunk of the cwa for Sun-Mon, especially since the roads will probably be sh!t with such cold temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z GFSV16 24 hr snowfall. I call challenge on the 11 inches over cook county and totals thru 2/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 While I don't have the courage of Alek to come out with an exact number, I do like 6"+ here. I also think somebody in the LOT cwa will see double digits out of this... the synoptic alone probably won't be enough to get double digits that far north so it may need to be the synoptic/lake combo, which would mean somewhere in Lake/Porter and possibly the Illinois shore. If the lake effect stalls out for a long time and goes crazy, then you couldn't rule out isolated amounts of 18-24" somewhere in those counties. That is a high end/low probability scenario though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: While I don't have the courage of Alek to come out with an exact number, I do like 6"+ here. I also think somebody in the LOT cwa will see double digits out of this... the synoptic alone probably won't be enough to get double digits that far north so it may need to be the synoptic/lake combo, which would mean somewhere in Lake/Porter and possibly the Illinois shore. If the lake effect stalls out for a long time and goes crazy, then you couldn't rule out isolated amounts of 18-24" somewhere in those counties. That is a high end/low probability scenario though. ukie is liking the same areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: ukie is liking the same areas Subtract a little bit for tonight/Saturday, but that's a hell of a signal for a global model and considering what overall ratios are likely to be in the synoptic and lake effect, this verbatim is probably the 18+ scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I concede to yet another 6-7 day forecast that got my hopes up. At this point I'd rather see enough of a lapse in Winter to wash my truck. Car washes are all shut down with the deep cold, could use a run through two or three timea 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 47 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: I concede to yet another 6-7 day forecast that got my hopes up. At this point I'd rather see enough of a lapse in Winter to wash my truck. Car washes are all shut down with the deep cold, could use a run through two or three timea You and me both man. Is it tornado season yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 00z Euro came in hot for the OV and into southeast Michigan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Anyone got a Kuchera map for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, WHEATCENT said: Anyone got a Kuchera map for the Euro? I can only guess the Wxbell one will pop some 20" amounts with the modeled qpf. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, WHEATCENT said: Anyone got a Kuchera map for the Euro? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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