Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
 Share

Recommended Posts

A little positivity from NWS Indy.  I think the Ohio posters are going to get buried.  
 

Quote

Looking through probabilistic data, there`s around a one in five
shot of 6 inches, and 8 to even 12 inches in those 36 hours isn`t
out of the question. Right now, the better chances for higher
amounts are east and southeast, but it is still early and there is
variability in the track that could significantly affect the
outcome. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

silly 18z NAM still thinks that the snow will reach into IL on Monday I guess the GFS hasnt informed it yet!!!

if your talking the sun/mon wave where  the NAM/GEM show snow and the GFS shows zero...do a compromise like the incoming event and go 1-3". 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

LOT just briefly touched on the lake enhancement/effect potential in the afternoon afd.  

The thermodynamics would support 1-2" per hour rates in the heart of the band imo.  If we had higher inversion heights, then I think it would be one of those that would be capable of 3-4" per hour rates.  But it's hard to envision those kind of rates with the somewhat limited depth of the mixed layer.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

Can someone explain the difference between the two snow maps above??  I guess I always thought the Kuchera was I higher ratio version, but the difference above seems to be more than that.  

If I recall correctly, the Kuchera takes into account the actual air temperatures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Jim Martin said:

If I recall correctly, the Kuchera takes into account the actual air temperatures.

It does, and it takes into account the entire thermal profile (not just air temps). That said, the weather bell implementation is totally wonky, or they are purposely inflated. Their maps are always bonkers. The pivotal ones are more true to form, and slightly more realistic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From the ILN area...

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
  inches. Some sleet and freezing rain may mix in with the snow
  across South Central Ohio and Northeast Kentucky.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
  Northeast and Northern Kentucky and Central, South Central,
  Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

Yep, I'm riding this. Only thing that could screw us is if it warms up too much, but I'm feeling this one. 4-8 is a fair amount, but I wouldn't be stunned if it's more.

 

All I know is that I told my s/o that Cincy has weak, boring winters. I have for one year been proven wrong.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a forecast sounding from southern Lake Michigan at 84 hrs.  Nice omega (pink lines on left) overlay in the dgz.  From a delta T perspective, I don't remember another setup with this good of a delta T on the western/southwestern shoreline this winter.

 10610268_2021021212_NAM_084_41.78-87.38_severe_ml.thumb.png.ac16858621b84a961293dd6cf7653876.png

Just to touch on this again.  I have been thinking about it and am struggling to remember the last time that a lake enhanced event on the southern/western shore had ~20-22C delta T in place for basically the entire duration of the synoptic system.  I'm sure it happens every once in a while but it's far more common to see that toward the tail end of a system as CAA kicks in.  Some models are stingy with the inland penetration of the band but the boundary layer flow looks good enough to get it at least several miles inland imo.  At least I hope lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just got off of the phone with someone in Irving, Texas. I could hear the almost panic in her voice while discussing their forecast. People are freaking out.  A lot of snow and zr in their forecast, along with below zero wind chills. The worst thing for them is that it's not going to get above freezing for almost a week. Expect lots of headlines from their area.

  • Haha 4
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...