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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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20 minutes ago, blue60007 said:

12z GFS with strong support from GEFS for a solid hit across much of IN and OH. GEFS seems a tad further NW of the op with the heaviest stripe. Looking solid for those of along and south of I-70. The extended range of the NAM supports a GFS solution as well.

Looks too good to be true given the way these had evolved over the past 5 years. There's always going to be a catch that shows up in the short range (dry air, mixing, shunt in track etc...)

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3 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Looks too good to be true given the way these had evolved over the past 5 years. There's always going to be a catch that shows up in the short range (dry air, mixing, shunt in track etc...)

I hear you. I'm trying to not even look at the follow up storm later in the week just yet.

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5 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Looks too good to be true given the way these had evolved over the past 5 years. There's always going to be a catch that shows up in the short range (dry air, mixing, shunt in track etc...)

You win the prize for most pessimistic! LOL Understandable though! 

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7 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

You win the prize for most pessimistic! LOL Understandable though! 

Half sarcasm, half realistic I guess. Being a weenie has gotten me burned so many times lol. I can't lie I'm getting really excited for this setup just as I was for the last storm. We've sure had some putters out of good setup before, but I'm even seeing some '08 similarities (minus the deform blizzard part).

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Nice looking lake band on the extended range NAM.  A couple negatives of the setup are nearshore ice (still plenty of open water though) and fairly modest equilibrium heights.  Delta T is very nice though with nice omega right through the dgz.  If this band can be a slow mover, which looks plausible, it could pile up pretty nicely.

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5 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

Half sarcasm, half realistic I guess. Being a weenie has gotten me burned so many times lol. I can't lie I'm getting really excited for this setup just as I was for the last storm. We've sure had some putters out of good setup before, but I'm even seeing some '08 similarities (minus the deform blizzard part).

We are all weenies and all been burned and all been bummed. It’s why we are even on this stupid board! LOL

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3 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

We are all weenies and all been burned and all been bummed. It’s why we are even on this stupid board! LOL

Exactly haha! I do miss the days when I didn't really track snow events and snow was a surprise, but there's nothing like watching a storm come together on models and verifying

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34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Nice looking lake band on the extended range NAM.  A couple negatives of the setup are nearshore ice (still plenty of open water though) and fairly modest equilibrium heights.  Delta T is very nice though with nice omega right through the dgz.  If this band can be a slow mover, which looks plausible, it could pile up pretty nicely.

Here's a forecast sounding from southern Lake Michigan at 84 hrs.  Nice omega (pink lines on left) overlay in the dgz.  From a delta T perspective, I don't remember another setup with this good of a delta T on the western/southwestern shoreline this winter.

 10610268_2021021212_NAM_084_41.78-87.38_severe_ml.thumb.png.ac16858621b84a961293dd6cf7653876.png

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Here's a forecast sounding from southern Lake Michigan at 84 hrs.  Nice omega (pink lines on left) overlay in the dgz.  From a delta T perspective, I don't remember another setup with this good of a delta T on the western/southwestern shoreline this winter.

 

Yeah for sure, that’s beautiful. Cloud depth covers the entire DGZ. A little shear at the top of the layer but most of it is unidirectional. Also seeding it a bit from aloft. 

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9 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Yeah for sure, that’s beautiful. Cloud depth covers the entire DGZ. A little shear at the top of the layer but most of it is unidirectional. Also seeding it a bit from aloft. 

The delta T is pretty high end for an enhancement setup... talking 20C or even a bit more.  Also, that 20C+ delta T is in place for the entire time, not just coming in as the low pulls away as is often the case.  Gotta think this will deliver for somebody.

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Whelp euro took a step towards GFS for next week. Barely brings the precip shield into IL except the far east. Curious if globals are underestimating precip on nw side. Higher res like nam suggests more snow pretty far nw. Not holding my breath though. Trend this winter seems to be downward as we get closer. 

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8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

i'll go 3" final call, ull and slp just gonna miss by too much and les is more of an IN affair

Everybody near the IL/IN shore has high bust potential depending on the band behavior/placement.  I think a case can be made that the LES gets spread around on both sides, starting in IN and then migrating to the IL shore as winds gain a more easterly component.  

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13 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro runs, a day or two ago, that showed snow getting pulled back into Iowa were just a tease.  The PV lobe is going to hang around longer and put the kibosh on that scenario.

Pv and arctic air need to retreat a bit. Rather take my chances with precip issues. More often than not, big dogs occur with warmer temps, more moisture. Gotta smell the rain to get the big snows most of the time. This pattern isn't allowing any spacing or room for amplification. Not sure if that's more bad luck with pieces ejecting/lack of a strong shortwave or the colder air squashing the storms more SE.

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While trends have been unfavorable for the Chicago metro overall for the Monday into Tuesday period, not going to write off a better outcome here when this is still 84 hours out and beyond. It seems that the PV lobe location is going to be a big player and if that can slip east northeast a bit quicker, would imagine a more expansive precip shield to the northwest.

 

It looks like even based off 12z operational runs we have a decent shot to get clipped with enough synoptic forcing to allow for good lake effect/enhancement (with already discussed favorable parameters) that could penetrate decently far west and southwest into the metro and support at least a couple inches if not more, especially lakeside.

 

The GEMs have put their eggs into the Sunday night-Monday period, which the outer ranges of NAM supports, and the other guidance doesn't, so I'm not sure what to make of that yet.

 

 

 

 

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14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The Euro runs, a day or two ago, that showed snow getting pulled back into Iowa were just a tease.  The PV lobe is going to hang around longer and put the kibosh on that scenario.

Sounds fitting for this winter. Curious if we will see other models trend that direction. Nam and gem still showing a decent precip shield into a good chunk of IL. 

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The crib is 37° as well.

My guess is maybe a bit of upwelling. Can see on vis sat that the NW winds are pushing the ice offshore and to the SE.


.
The Crib has been bouncing around a lot. I think that one is taken farther underwater than the shore reading, which is taken at the Jardine water purification plant. Since the lake gets highly stratified is less windy period and it hasn't been all that windy during this cold stretch, that might help explain things. The surface layer would cool very quickly and ice over while the depth at which the temperatures are taken wouldn't have much time to cool in such a rapid ice up, as you would have kind of opposite of summer when surface is warmest and cooler layers below. The ice itself would insulate the layers below, which is what snowpack does to somewhat limit how deep frost can develop in the soil.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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