frostfern Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: Gfs seems to be on its own but time will tell It seems like most the models agree that energy will transfer to the coast. That's the major problem. I don't know if the GFS handles precip placement as well as other models though. It seems to miss bands that occur away from the low back in the cold air. At least that's a bias I have noticed in the past. A few people may get lucky with a defo-band hanging back overhead for a while even as the surface low transfers to the coast. Maybe wishful thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, frostfern said: It seems like most the models agree that energy will transfer to the coast. That's the major problem. I don't know if the GFS handles precip placement as well as other models though. It seems to miss bands that occur away from the low back in the cold air. At least that's a bias I have noticed in the past. A few people may get lucky with a defo-band hanging back overhead for a while even as the surface low transfers to the coast. Maybe wishful thinking. Another thing in our favor is that this is a cold storm so ratios should be high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'm gonna say the 00z NAM will have a better look than the 00z GFS. Prove me wrong GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Another thing in our favor is that this is a cold storm so ratios should be high I think there's a good chance of that with northwestward extent. Could end up with less good ratios around your area and areas south/east due to some mid level "warmth"/less deep DGZ, but probably still better than climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
500 mbvort Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'm gonna say the 00z NAM will have a better look than the 00z GFS. Prove me wrong GFS. First time poster long time lurker. You really think so? At 84 it looks more like what the GEM was doing at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, 500 mbvort said: First time poster long time lurker. You really think so? At 84 it looks more like what the GEM was doing at 12z. Welcome The bar is low for the GFS... and I'm mainly talking about how far northwest it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
500 mbvort Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Welcome The bar is low for the GFS... and I'm mainly talking about how far northwest it snows. Should clarify I’m talking about the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 a little late but the 21z Plumes at ORD had jumped up to 7.8 thru monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Well now most models are in somewhat of agreement over the OHV. Time for a mega trend to the coast! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Things are getting very interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Things are getting very interesting It could be time for Indy,DTW, and OV in general to cash in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Ukie still looks fairly respectable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Sorry for Spartmaning the thread, but lol Louisiana 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Pretty nice spread the wealth on the 00z Euro. Lake is a wild card but between that and synoptic, I like my chances of getting several inches from this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 34 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Pretty nice spread the wealth on the 00z Euro. Lake is a wild card but between that and synoptic, I like my chances of getting several inches from this one. Im assuming ratios would be atleast 20:1, so detroit could be looking at their first 6+ event, and possibly wsw and warning. Hopefully the euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Sigh..another "one day in the cone" as my drought of Watch/Warn events looks to continue. Twenty WWA's outta my office (and planning on another with these trends) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 ^ Southeast Alaska is all scribbled out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 haven't looked at a model. but there is this: THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE ON SPECIFICS, BUT THE TREND THE PAST 12-24 HOURS HAS BEEN SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND MORE OVERRUNNING SIGNAL OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND MOISTURE OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 From ILN's AFD: Heading into Sunday night and Monday, guidance is beginning to show shortwave activity ejecting out of the central U.S. trough. This induces weak isentropic lift Sunday night into Monday morning, so PoPs have been introduced. Thermal profiles look to support mainly light snow, with some light freezing rain and sleet mixing in for northeast Kentucky potentially up into the lower Scioto River valley. NBM thermal fields appear too cold aloft, so blended in NAM and CONSALL data. After a brief respite Monday afternoon, the next disturbance arrives from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday. Once again, snow should be the main precipitation type. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few inches from this system -- though uncertainly remains high on track/intensity of low pressure. Once again, warm air aloft could mean some sleet/freezing rain in the southeast. I didn't know we were just looking at a "few inches" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 looking like DAB unless the lake polishes another turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: looking like DAB unless the lake polishes another turd start the Feb 18 thread. Title:" If at first you don't succeed, try, and try again." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDoppler4TnySandz Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 46 minutes ago, Gino27 said: From ILN's AFD: Heading into Sunday night and Monday, guidance is beginning to show shortwave activity ejecting out of the central U.S. trough. This induces weak isentropic lift Sunday night into Monday morning, so PoPs have been introduced. Thermal profiles look to support mainly light snow, with some light freezing rain and sleet mixing in for northeast Kentucky potentially up into the lower Scioto River valley. NBM thermal fields appear too cold aloft, so blended in NAM and CONSALL data. After a brief respite Monday afternoon, the next disturbance arrives from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday. Once again, snow should be the main precipitation type. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few inches from this system -- though uncertainly remains high on track/intensity of low pressure. Once again, warm air aloft could mean some sleet/freezing rain in the southeast. I didn't know we were just looking at a "few inches" ILN always plays it that way this far out...the fact that we are still 60+ hours out and they are referencing a few inches is somewhat significant IMO. A couple of the local mets down here (TV 12 and 19) that I trust as a Met and not just a reader of the tele-prompter were both talking about essentially wintry precip Monday into Tues, Weds, Thur-Fri --- Now I know why the school district sent an email last night saying to make sure the kids had all needed material for online days in case it was needed...My guess is the potential of next week has been shared with the Superintendents. In the near term...the Saturday system is not that far SE from the I-71 line....if that ends up slightly NW, what is the ripple effect downstream through the week? Perhaps that's the NW tick that the Chicago and Mich crew would like to see? Just thinking out loud. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: Pretty nice spread the wealth on the 00z Euro. Lake is a wild card but between that and synoptic, I like my chances of getting several inches from this one. Like your position better than NW LOT to receive anything. No lake bailout here and you may get clipped by synoptic. This Saturday maybe it for a couple inch refresher till at least late next week. Temps look to rebound later next week also hopefully start to get systems tracking further NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Like your position better than NW LOT to receive anything. No lake bailout here and you may get clipped by synoptic. This Saturday maybe it for a couple inch refresher till at least late next week. Temps look to rebound later next week also hopefully start to get systems tracking further NW yeah, this pattern was nice and all but without a major on the table, i think i'm ready to try something new 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 plumes thru monday @ ORD 8.92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said: ILN always plays it that way this far out...the fact that we are still 60+ hours out and they are referencing a few inches is somewhat significant IMO. A couple of the local mets down here (TV 12 and 19) that I trust as a Met and not just a reader of the tele-prompter were both talking about essentially wintry precip Monday into Tues, Weds, Thur-Fri --- Now I know why the school district sent an email last night saying to make sure the kids had all needed material for online days in case it was needed...My guess is the potential of next week has been shared with the Superintendents. In the near term...the Saturday system is not that far SE from the I-71 line....if that ends up slightly NW, what is the ripple effect downstream through the week? Perhaps that's the NW tick that the Chicago and Mich crew would like to see? Just thinking out loud. Yeah ILN lowballs everything and ends up right 90% of the time. Of course we can't guarantee the track of the storm given the system out ahead of it. However the Mon/Tue system should be widespread enough that along I-71 should be somewhat safe, other than the fear of mixing like the euro put out last night. The warm tongue around 850mb means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 both 12z NAM and RGEM bringing decent snows again in the late sun/monday period lets see what the king (GFS) has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 mood dust for lovers 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12z GFS with strong support from GEFS for a solid hit across much of IN and OH. GEFS seems a tad further NW of the op with the heaviest stripe. Looking solid for those of along and south of I-70. The extended range of the NAM supports a GFS solution as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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