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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Gfs seems to be on its own but time will tell:yikes:

It seems like most the models agree that energy will transfer to the coast.  That's the major problem.  I don't know if the GFS handles precip placement as well as other models though.  It seems to miss bands that occur away from the low back in the cold air.  At least that's a bias I have noticed in the past.  A few people may get lucky with a defo-band hanging back overhead for a while even as the surface low transfers to the coast.  Maybe wishful thinking.

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

It seems like most the models agree that energy will transfer to the coast.  That's the major problem.  I don't know if the GFS handles precip placement as well as other models though.  It seems to miss bands that occur away from the low back in the cold air.  At least that's a bias I have noticed in the past.  A few people may get lucky with a defo-band hanging back overhead for a while even as the surface low transfers to the coast.  Maybe wishful thinking.

Another thing in our favor is that this is a cold storm so ratios should be high

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22 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Another thing in our favor is that this is a cold storm so ratios should be high

I think there's a good chance of that with northwestward extent.  Could end up with less good ratios around your area and areas south/east due to some mid level "warmth"/less deep DGZ, but probably still better than climo.  

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34 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty nice spread the wealth on the 00z Euro.

Lake is a wild card but between that and synoptic, I like my chances of getting several inches from this one.

Im assuming ratios would be atleast 20:1, so detroit could be looking at their first 6+ event, and possibly wsw and warning. Hopefully the euro is right.

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haven't looked at a model. but there is this:

 THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF VARIANCE IN   
GUIDANCE ON SPECIFICS, BUT THE TREND THE PAST 12-24 HOURS HAS BEEN  
SLOWER EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC HIGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO   
MONDAY, AND MORE OVERRUNNING SIGNAL OF WARM ADVECTION ALOFT AND   
MOISTURE OVER ILLINOIS AND INDIANA.

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From ILN's AFD:

Heading into Sunday night and Monday, guidance is beginning to show
shortwave activity ejecting out of the central U.S. trough. This
induces weak isentropic lift Sunday night into Monday morning, so
PoPs have been introduced. Thermal profiles look to support mainly
light snow, with some light freezing rain and sleet mixing in for
northeast Kentucky potentially up into the lower Scioto River
valley. NBM thermal fields appear too cold aloft, so blended in NAM
and CONSALL data.
 
After a brief respite Monday afternoon, the next disturbance arrives
from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday. Once again, snow
should be the main precipitation type. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few inches from this system -- though uncertainly remains high on
track/intensity of low pressure. Once again, warm air aloft could
mean some sleet/freezing rain in the southeast.

I didn't know we were just looking at a "few inches"

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46 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

From ILN's AFD:


Heading into Sunday night and Monday, guidance is beginning to show
shortwave activity ejecting out of the central U.S. trough. This
induces weak isentropic lift Sunday night into Monday morning, so
PoPs have been introduced. Thermal profiles look to support mainly
light snow, with some light freezing rain and sleet mixing in for
northeast Kentucky potentially up into the lower Scioto River
valley. NBM thermal fields appear too cold aloft, so blended in NAM
and CONSALL data.

 
After a brief respite Monday afternoon, the next disturbance arrives
from the southwest Monday night into Tuesday. Once again, snow
should be the main precipitation type. Wouldn`t be surprised to see
a few inches from this system -- though uncertainly remains high on
track/intensity of low pressure. Once again, warm air aloft could
mean some sleet/freezing rain in the southeast.

I didn't know we were just looking at a "few inches"

ILN always plays it that way this far out...the fact that we are still 60+ hours out and they are referencing a few inches is somewhat significant IMO.

A couple of the local mets down here (TV 12 and 19) that I trust as a Met and not just a reader of the tele-prompter were both talking about essentially wintry precip Monday into Tues, Weds, Thur-Fri --- Now I know why the school district sent an email last night saying to make sure the kids had all needed material for online days in case it was needed...My guess is the potential of next week has been shared with the Superintendents.

In the near term...the Saturday system is not that far SE from the I-71 line....if that ends up slightly NW, what is the ripple effect downstream through the week? Perhaps that's the NW tick that the Chicago and Mich crew would like to see? Just thinking out loud.

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5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Pretty nice spread the wealth on the 00z Euro.

Lake is a wild card but between that and synoptic, I like my chances of getting several inches from this one.

Like your position better than NW LOT to receive anything. No lake bailout here and you may get clipped by synoptic. This Saturday maybe it for a couple inch refresher till at least late next week. Temps look to rebound later next week also hopefully start to get systems tracking further NW

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3 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Like your position better than NW LOT to receive anything. No lake bailout here and you may get clipped by synoptic. This Saturday maybe it for a couple inch refresher till at least late next week. Temps look to rebound later next week also hopefully start to get systems tracking further NW

yeah, this pattern was nice and all but without a major on the table, i think i'm ready to try something new

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2 hours ago, NoDoppler4TnySandz said:

ILN always plays it that way this far out...the fact that we are still 60+ hours out and they are referencing a few inches is somewhat significant IMO.

A couple of the local mets down here (TV 12 and 19) that I trust as a Met and not just a reader of the tele-prompter were both talking about essentially wintry precip Monday into Tues, Weds, Thur-Fri --- Now I know why the school district sent an email last night saying to make sure the kids had all needed material for online days in case it was needed...My guess is the potential of next week has been shared with the Superintendents.

In the near term...the Saturday system is not that far SE from the I-71 line....if that ends up slightly NW, what is the ripple effect downstream through the week? Perhaps that's the NW tick that the Chicago and Mich crew would like to see? Just thinking out loud.

Yeah ILN lowballs everything and ends up right 90% of the time. Of course we can't guarantee the track of the storm given the system out ahead of it. However the Mon/Tue system should be widespread enough that along I-71 should be somewhat safe, other than the fear of mixing like the euro put out last night. The warm tongue around 850mb means business. 

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12z GFS with strong support from GEFS for a solid hit across much of IN and OH. GEFS seems a tad further NW of the op with the heaviest stripe. Looking solid for those of along and south of I-70. The extended range of the NAM supports a GFS solution as well.

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