A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 PV stronger on the euro and result is as expected, not a major change tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 As often in this setup, the low wants to transfer its energy to a coastal vs remaining dominant and strengthening as it moves NE. This is why its so hard to get a big dog in the eastern great lakes/subforum. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: PV stronger on the euro and result is as expected, not a major change tho I'm sure it will end up trending completely to GFS because why not. But holding hope we can get some decent snows in the deformation band of the upper level system since the sfc system is way south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks like it's still holding as a decent storm for the OHV. I doubted a big dog from the start, but ratios could be on my side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Could have ridiculously large coverage of winter warnings and advisories for this one. Possibly all the way from the Gulf coast to the Lakes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: PV stronger on the euro and result is as expected, not a major change tho As typical, the next system is another long-range tease on the euro. Could it trend NW without the PV? And no other system riding it's ass too close? If none of these produce it's time to punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 It's funny how just a couple years can change your mindset and thinking. 2-3 years ago, those on the northwest fringe of storms thought they were sitting pretty In case of last minute NW trend/stronger low pressure systems, which we saw often. The past couple years its been the opposite for the most part. I never thought I would miss the Northwest trend days. Hoping we can get back to that the next few weeks. Ill take potential for sleet and rain over dry, cold and miss the the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Don't have access to Euro forecast soundings but it again looks like an extremely deep DGZ around Chicagoland from near the surface all the way into the mid levels. Can't see omega either but if it is lined up nicely in that growth zone, then you could easily imagine 20:1 or 30:1 type ratios out of this setup. I'd hesitate to suggest higher without knowing more... also this type of system origin is not necessarily known for producing bonkers high ratios, but we could be dealing with an exception this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Remember earlier in winter when systems had marginal cold air Residents of Nuevo Laredo will be saying, "Se me están congelando las bolas aquí abajo." 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Gonna have crazy snow depths around the area if this next week or so of systems pans out. 3", 6", 8" snow depth is kind of all the same to me, but if we're talking around 2 feet or more, yeah, bring it on. Then please come shovel around my car next week. lol.......Actually this helps me get my exercise and makes up for skimpings when I spent winters in Indpls area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Then please come shovel around my car next week. lol.......Actually this helps me get my exercise and makes up for skimpings when I spent winters in Indpls area. No thanks, this 110 foot driveway is enough shoveling for me. At least the last couple rounds have been light and fluffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, IWXwx said: Residents of Nuevo Laredo will be saying, "Se me están congelando las bolas aquí abajo." I would have thought there'd be a "cojones" or "huevos" in there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 From the ILX FB page, a bit early on the call maybe? I know they lean rather heavily on WPC but, 5 days out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Each run is just weaker and weaker. Idk if this one will survive tbh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 18z gfs going fishing in the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, CoachLB said: 18z gfs going fishing in the Gulf of Mexico. Could be typical progressive bias from GFS or another one swept out from under us. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 you know it’s bad when angrysummons has more of a leveled head than some of you these days.. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 para GFS at 18Z seems to have a much better look almost like an inverted trough set up that spreads snow shield fairly far north and west of the main storm. Long way to go on this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 I haven't looked at the skill scores but anecdotally, the GFS seems like it has been struggling a lot, whether it's thermal issues or some other aspects of a system. We are seeing it again on the system for tomorrow/Saturday... it still can't figure that one out and it is like 24 hours away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12z GFS had OV getting 16" from the two storms next week. Believe that when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Delayed but not denied rolls on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS progressive bias in mid range. Always happens it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Don't have access to Euro forecast soundings but it again looks like an extremely deep DGZ around Chicagoland from near the surface all the way into the mid levels. Can't see omega either but if it is lined up nicely in that growth zone, then you could easily imagine 20:1 or 30:1 type ratios out of this setup. I'd hesitate to suggest higher without knowing more... also this type of system origin is not necessarily known for producing bonkers high ratios, but we could be dealing with an exception this time.Pivotal has a 20% off sale going The DGZ is extremely impressive on both the UKMET and ECMWF from their 12z runs. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I will cross post this because it does the same at 96 hours as well. I wouldn't trust the GFS output for precip, it can't even agree with intramodel processes. 20 minutes ago, Stebo said: Incredible amount of garbage from GFS. I will give an example, this is at 45 hours in NE Indiana, sounding Map at same time I mean that is insanely wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Raid the stores Houstonians Inland Harris- Including the city of Houston 429 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 .SUNDAY NIGHT...Light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the late evening and overnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent in the evening increasing to 80 percent after midnight. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy with light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Colder. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent in the morning decreasing to 40 percent in the afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 35 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: From the ILX FB page, a bit early on the call maybe? I know they lean rather heavily on WPC but, 5 days out.... GFS seems a bit lost per usual. Definitely sad when Oklahoma is going to have a better winter than most of IL. Forecasting 8-12in in their watch there. Shoot at this point I would kill for high end advisory or low end warning amounts. Definitely will hurt if it's a near miss like that. Like either slam me or go far away. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: GFS progressive bias in mid range. Always happens it seems I know it usually does this, but it still worries me on the chance it's being the 1st to catch on to a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Raid the stores Houstonians Inland Harris- Including the city of Houston 429 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 .SUNDAY NIGHT...Light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the late evening and overnight. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent in the evening increasing to 80 percent after midnight. .WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Mostly cloudy with light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the morning, then partly cloudy with a chance of light freezing rain, snow and sleet in the afternoon. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 1 inch. Colder. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 80 percent in the morning decreasing to 40 percent in the afternoon. I feel for all those tech migrants from California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Gfs seems to be on its own but time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Delayed but not denied rolls on If the NW trend is possible this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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