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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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WPC Day 5 snow probs and their model choice via extended forecast discussion

 

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The WPC medium-range forecast package was derived from a composite blend of the 12Z ECMWF/EC ensemble mean, the 18Z GFS/GEFS, together with a smaller contribution from the 12Z CMC/CMC mean and the 01Z NBM. Mostly ensemble means were used on Days 6 and 7 given the increasing model uncertainties.

 

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1 hour ago, zinski1990 said:

I'll give it another day or so. If it doesn't trend back nw I'll give up. 

Many of yesterday's 12z EPS members brought mix/ZR/rain up into central IN. The 0z and 6z EPS looks like a better track - very few mixing issues here, albeit drier. The GEFS is a similar situation. I like where we're at ATM, though do need to monitor any weaker/more sheared/drier trends today and tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, blue60007 said:

Many of yesterday's 12z EPS members brought mix/ZR/rain up into central IN. The 0z and 6z EPS looks like a better track - very few mixing issues here, albeit drier. The GEFS is a similar situation. I like where we're at ATM, though do need to monitor any weaker/more sheared/drier trends today and tomorrow.

The Euro looks good. Were lucky that were in a neg pna. Southeast ridge is saving it from being another southern slider

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21 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

The Euro looks good. Were lucky that were in a neg pna. Southeast ridge is saving it from being another southern slider

00Z Euro area average sounding for Chicago below. The DGZ is ~14,000' deep with steep lapse rates above that and unidirectional flow off the lake. Would probably be double digit totals w/ the QPF it has forecast.

Obviously still a lot can go wrong w/ the TPV not moving out in time. There has been a trend for a deeper upper low moving across the SW and TX - if that can cut off a bit more and slow down it would likely result in a farther N/W storm track at the surface.

930407126_ScreenShot2021-02-11at9_33_19AM.thumb.png.fee6b3ff608b2df74c88028c926f6189.png

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26 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

we hit on these next couple, even modestly, and we're pushing top tier depths for our climo

Don't remember depths exceeding this in 07-08 or 13-14. GHD was temporary and not the steady increase this year has been

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11 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Don't remember depths exceeding this in 07-08 or 13-14. GHD was temporary and not the steady increase this year has been

Skilling posted this last night, duration of this snow depth definitely getting impressive. Top 5 is in the bag, would be neat to have every day in February in double digits though

2DDCCDC3-AE95-4BE5-9476-A7F2D180C47B.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, cutlew said:

Skilling posted this last night, duration of this snow depth definitely getting impressive. Top 5 is in the bag, would be neat to have every day in February in double digits though

2DDCCDC3-AE95-4BE5-9476-A7F2D180C47B.jpeg

Its been remarkable. I haven't seen the ground since late December.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

we hit on these next couple, even modestly, and we're pushing top tier depths for our climo

Out here in corn country, I judge snow cover by how much corn stubble is still visible. In 25 years, I can't recall it being this deep for this long, ever. There is barely a corn stalk visible in any field.

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I haven't been home since nov 1st, but via cam near my front door, I can confirm I see blades of grass peaking through the snow. The lack of big dog potential in my neck of the woods this winter is a bummer. Old crusty snowcover doesnt do anything for me but y'all enjoy your yellow/black dirty snowcover.

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