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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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ILX AFD

 

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
340 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021


A frigid air mass over the region will be in place as a strong
storm system arrives in the area from the southwest tonight
through Monday night. Bitterly cold wind chills will continue
through tonight, followed by heavy snow, especially east of I-55.
Six to twelve inches of snow are expected by Monday night east of
I-55, and generally three to six inches to the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

The lead disturbance ejecting out of a deep low pressure trough
over the southwest is already bringing snow from around the
Illinois River westward in a frontogenetical region, while an
additional disturbance currently heading into southern Missouri
should arrive this evening and spread snow throughout central and
southeast IL, becoming a bit heavier overnight. Just north of
Peoria should see little snowfall with this feature, but the
remainder of central and southeast IL should see an inch or two
overnight, followed by a brief lull in snowfall rates. In the
afternoon to late evening, the main surface low passes by to the
southeast, but still bringing significant snowfall rates
especially east central and southeast IL with a pronounced upper
level shortwave moving through. This latter portion of the
extended storm system should target southeast and east central IL
with the heaviest amounts, ranging from 4 to 9 additional inches
through Monday night, while areas west of I-55 only see an
additional 2 to 5 inches. Storm totals therefore range up to the 8
to 12 inch range from the I-57 corridor eastward, 4 to 8 inches
around the I-55 corridor, and 3 to 6 inches to the west. Therefore
have winter storm warnings in effect from Sangamon County/
Champaign County southward/eastward, and winter weather advisories
in effect to the northwest. It should be noted that snow should
be light and fluffy given the very cold temperatures at the
surface and aloft, so a bit unusual for the area. Although the
weight of the snow will be low, blowing and drifting could
initiate at lower wind speeds than typical as well. The snow
should taper off and end late Monday night.

 

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Just now, mimillman said:

Your climo is better in November and December and worse in Jan and Feb, that’s how it goes 

What's about to happen in the city is incredibly rare. It's just amusing to me it happens the first winter I leave and then I come out here and ruin Cary's snow chances to boot. I'd move to the north pole, but i'd hate to accelerate the melting of the arctic even more. 

I would also say our climo isn't much different from yours at all, aside from the lake influence. Lake County is literally 5 minutes away and has been doing fine. 

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1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

yes but the 18z GFS doubled your snowfall and the 18z GFSV16 stayed the same so nice trends for you if u ignore the NAM

Yes, the GFS has us around 2". The NAM was the model everyone was hyping earlier, when it was an obvious outlier. That's why I mentioned it. Not to mention the GFS literally just came out. 

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7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

lol

Another quality post. I am convinced you could get 2 feet only on your property and still find a reason to complain. 

All of the guidance has bumped NW starting overnight. The NAM was throwing more precip NW spreading out the gradient, but it wasn’t an outlier in terms of the evolution. If it had a Madison special, then it’s an outlier. A 20 mile difference in snow is within a reasonable margin of error is in line with other guidance. 
 

 

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16 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

What's about to happen in the city is incredibly rare. It's just amusing to me it happens the first winter I leave and then I come out here and ruin Cary's snow chances to boot. I'd move to the north pole, but i'd hate to accelerate the melting of the arctic even more. 

I would also say our climo isn't much different from yours at all, aside from the lake influence. Lake County is literally 5 minutes away and has been doing fine. 

That’s what I mean. Immediate lake influence does make a difference, at least in my experience living in Chicago 

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1 minute ago, Chicago WX said:

It's been steady with that call. 

I remember you doing a thread after the January 5, 2014 storm about how spread the wealth it was in Indiana.  This one looks even more spread the wealth in the state.  Actually, assuming this pans out, I can't remember the last time that a storm covered one end of the state to the other with amounts like this.  Even January 1999 didn't do that. 

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12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Fwiw, the last time that IND and ORD both had at least a 10" snow depth was on 2/16/2014.  Come on IND, make it happen in the next couple days without having to wait for the late week storm.

Not that it will happen, but when is the last time IND had two snowstorms of 10" in a 3 day period ?

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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I remember you doing a thread after the January 5, 2014 storm about how spread the wealth it was in Indiana.  This one looks even more spread the wealth in the state.  Actually, assuming this pans out, I can't remember the last time that a storm covered one end of the state to the other with amounts like this.  Even January 1999 didn't do that. 

Yeah, I thought 1/5/14 was probably the biggest spread the wealth storm (coverage of 6"+) Indiana has ever seen. Along with Jan '99. This one, if it works out as modeled, beats it no doubt. Pretty amazing.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Yeah, I thought 1/5/14 was probably the biggest spread the wealth storm (coverage of 6"+) Indiana has ever seen. Along with Jan '99. This one, if it works out as modeled, beats it no doubt. Pretty amazing.

The 10"+ coverage looks phenomenal as well... possibly at least 90-95% of the state.

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