WeatherMonger Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 ILX AFD Quote Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 340 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 340 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 A frigid air mass over the region will be in place as a strong storm system arrives in the area from the southwest tonight through Monday night. Bitterly cold wind chills will continue through tonight, followed by heavy snow, especially east of I-55. Six to twelve inches of snow are expected by Monday night east of I-55, and generally three to six inches to the west. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 340 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 The lead disturbance ejecting out of a deep low pressure trough over the southwest is already bringing snow from around the Illinois River westward in a frontogenetical region, while an additional disturbance currently heading into southern Missouri should arrive this evening and spread snow throughout central and southeast IL, becoming a bit heavier overnight. Just north of Peoria should see little snowfall with this feature, but the remainder of central and southeast IL should see an inch or two overnight, followed by a brief lull in snowfall rates. In the afternoon to late evening, the main surface low passes by to the southeast, but still bringing significant snowfall rates especially east central and southeast IL with a pronounced upper level shortwave moving through. This latter portion of the extended storm system should target southeast and east central IL with the heaviest amounts, ranging from 4 to 9 additional inches through Monday night, while areas west of I-55 only see an additional 2 to 5 inches. Storm totals therefore range up to the 8 to 12 inch range from the I-57 corridor eastward, 4 to 8 inches around the I-55 corridor, and 3 to 6 inches to the west. Therefore have winter storm warnings in effect from Sangamon County/ Champaign County southward/eastward, and winter weather advisories in effect to the northwest. It should be noted that snow should be light and fluffy given the very cold temperatures at the surface and aloft, so a bit unusual for the area. Although the weight of the snow will be low, blowing and drifting could initiate at lower wind speeds than typical as well. The snow should taper off and end late Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: Your climo is better in November and December and worse in Jan and Feb, that’s how it goes What's about to happen in the city is incredibly rare. It's just amusing to me it happens the first winter I leave and then I come out here and ruin Cary's snow chances to boot. I'd move to the north pole, but i'd hate to accelerate the melting of the arctic even more. I would also say our climo isn't much different from yours at all, aside from the lake influence. Lake County is literally 5 minutes away and has been doing fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'll take the 18Z GFS V16 for $200 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: yes but the 18z GFS doubled your snowfall and the 18z GFSV16 stayed the same so nice trends for you if u ignore the NAM Yes, the GFS has us around 2". The NAM was the model everyone was hyping earlier, when it was an obvious outlier. That's why I mentioned it. Not to mention the GFS literally just came out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Yes, the GFS has us around 2". The NAM was the model everyone was hyping earlier, when it was an obvious outlier. That's why I mentioned it. Not to mention the GFS literally just came out. What about the GFS v16 with about 5 for you, are u not buying it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 light snow already falling here...not sure its flukey or tied to the light snow were expecting overnight with the intial wave. It's about 0 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: 18z GFS bumped NW, and para GFS tick NW. Good convergence and all now well NW of last night's 00Z runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: What about the GFS v16 with about 5 for you, are u not buying it? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Trying to convince my parents they are either going to get 2-3 inches or 8-12 depending on how the LE shapes up. It’s a fun conversation. ;-) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Fwiw, the last time that IND and ORD both had at least a 10" snow depth was on 2/16/2014. Come on IND, make it happen in the next couple days without having to wait for the late week storm. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: I'll take the 18Z GFS V16 for $200 Here is the para GFS to 00z Wednesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: lol Another quality post. I am convinced you could get 2 feet only on your property and still find a reason to complain. All of the guidance has bumped NW starting overnight. The NAM was throwing more precip NW spreading out the gradient, but it wasn’t an outlier in terms of the evolution. If it had a Madison special, then it’s an outlier. A 20 mile difference in snow is within a reasonable margin of error is in line with other guidance. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Here is the para GFS to 00z Wednesday It's been steady with that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: What's about to happen in the city is incredibly rare. It's just amusing to me it happens the first winter I leave and then I come out here and ruin Cary's snow chances to boot. I'd move to the north pole, but i'd hate to accelerate the melting of the arctic even more. I would also say our climo isn't much different from yours at all, aside from the lake influence. Lake County is literally 5 minutes away and has been doing fine. That’s what I mean. Immediate lake influence does make a difference, at least in my experience living in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Fwiw, the last time that IND and ORD both had at least a 10" snow depth was on 2/16/2014. Come on IND, make it happen in the next couple days without having to wait for the late week storm. That’s a cool stat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago WX said: It's been steady with that call. I remember you doing a thread after the January 5, 2014 storm about how spread the wealth it was in Indiana. This one looks even more spread the wealth in the state. Actually, assuming this pans out, I can't remember the last time that a storm covered one end of the state to the other with amounts like this. Even January 1999 didn't do that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Fwiw, the last time that IND and ORD both had at least a 10" snow depth was on 2/16/2014. Come on IND, make it happen in the next couple days without having to wait for the late week storm. Not that it will happen, but when is the last time IND had two snowstorms of 10" in a 3 day period ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 First flakes falling. Not expecting much til tomorrow evening. I’m calling 6” here but it could go either way. Hope the lake surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I remember you doing a thread after the January 5, 2014 storm about how spread the wealth it was in Indiana. This one looks even more spread the wealth in the state. Actually, assuming this pans out, I can't remember the last time that a storm covered one end of the state to the other with amounts like this. Even January 1999 didn't do that. Yeah, I thought 1/5/14 was probably the biggest spread the wealth storm (coverage of 6"+) Indiana has ever seen. Along with Jan '99. This one, if it works out as modeled, beats it no doubt. Pretty amazing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Name Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 A lot of belittling on this forum. You guys really treat each other like crap. Exchange phone numbers and argue with each other. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Thinking 8-10 imby, probably some upside if things break right but good cushion for avoiding a total failure 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snownado said: Not that it will happen, but when is the last time IND had two snowstorms of 10" in a 3 day period ? Easy answer. Never. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Everyone having a romantic valentine's day? 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: Thinking 8-10 imby, probably some upside if things break right but good cushion for avoiding a total failure easy low-ball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Angrysummons said: Yeah, that isn't happening anytime soon. Do you think IND could get two 6" snows this week ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 i am going 4-8 with less in McHenry county 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Yeah, I thought 1/5/14 was probably the biggest spread the wealth storm (coverage of 6"+) Indiana has ever seen. Along with Jan '99. This one, if it works out as modeled, beats it no doubt. Pretty amazing. The 10"+ coverage looks phenomenal as well... possibly at least 90-95% of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Ensemble mean QPF for 18z GEFS, a tick up from 12z. 0.5"+ LE for downtown Chicago is impressive for an ensemble mean. And IND is looking money, as well as Detroit area. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Snownado said: Do you think IND could get two 6" snows this week ? Certainly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: easy low-ball. Been here b4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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