WeatherMonger Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Crazy track for where the warnings and advisories are 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Always fun to take the time to post on here along with [mention=1610]purduewx80[/mention] and any other NWS mets that post here and on other subs, and see others saying they'd have no problem defunding the NWS. If that person wasn't deleted they should be. This subforum doesn't need that shit. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Talk about a spread the wealth system! A realistic outcome at 17-20:1. Looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: St.Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Toronto all look to get 4"+ from this with some of those cities also looking at 8"+ Pretty weird thing to complain that its missing most of this board when its one of the most spread the wealth storms this winter. Probably should have started off with the fact that its missing your backyard so you don't care for it instead of trying to say its a nothing storm for the sub. I think he just quickly glanced at the nws warnings map and assumed it was missing michigan. Can never assume without looking at the current trend or models. I dont think he'll make that mistake again lol. All good lansingdewd. Or dewdette. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The 18Z HRRR is burying Chicago. I recall reading that the model has a tendency to overdo lake effect snow. Even if it's by 20%, the city is looking at almost 20 inches of snow in parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 DVN goes WWA for the SE third of their CWA for 2 to 5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Crazy track for where the warnings and advisories are That is way east of where it will be and also from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk It has the whole state of indiana getting 8+ lol. Close to a foot at dtw. We'll see if these kuchera maps verify for once. It'll be interesting if we get a classic nam18z overamped run here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 54 minutes ago, Dalfy said: STL's criteria is >=6 inches I believe. They haven't updated their AFD or forecast since this morning at 6, before the NW shift; they were calling 4-6'' which is under their warning criteria. "Other potential areas for concern with this forecast are exactly what the SLRs will be and whether we might be a tad low on snowfall for Monday. Given the very cold air mass, snow ratios should be high with dendrites dominating. Present thinking is that storm total snowfall amounts will range from 2-3 inches in far northeast MO and west central IL to 4-6 inches encompassing the remainder of the CWA. These totals agree well with GEFS exceedance guidance using a max SLR, and are in the 50-90th percentile of the NBM. Noteworthy is our operational NBM data looked a bit light on QPF for Monday. The winter weather advisory looks on target for this event considering the aforementioned expectations and has been expanded to include the remainder of the northern CWA." Glass from STL CWA, stuck to his guns in the 1pm update. It's also interesting they're the only CWA to not expand wind chill warnings south of the central portion of their forecast area. Other potential areas for concern with this forecast are exactly what the SLRs will be and whether we might be a tad low on snowfall for Monday. Given the very cold air mass, snow ratios should be high with dendrites dominating. Present thinking is that storm total snowfall amounts will range from 2-3 inches in far northeast MO and west central IL to 4-6 inches encompassing the remainder of the CWA. These totals agree well with GEFS exceedance guidance using a max SLR, and are in the 50-90th percentile of the NBM. Noteworthy is our operational NBM data looked a bit light on QPF for Monday. The winter weather advisory looks on target for this event considering the aforementioned expectations and has been expanded to include the remainder of the northern CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: St.Louis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit, Toronto all look to get 4"+ from this with some of those cities also looking at 8"+ Pretty weird thing to complain that its missing most of this board when its one of the most spread the wealth storms this winter. Probably should have started off with the fact that its missing your backyard so you don't care for it instead of trying to say its a nothing storm for the sub. bro, my back yard is in Puerto Rico. Couldnt care less, I was just pointing out based on the way the warnings were it was sweeping up to miss most to the east. And wow, a whole 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Sorry for the ignorance, but at what point would a lake effect snow warning be more appropriate than a WSW? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk What is your shift schedule coming up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I feel compelled to post the weeniebell kuchera if nothing else to archive 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: Sorry for the ignorance, but at what point would a lake effect snow warning be more appropriate than a WSW? There could be 100" of snow and it will remain a winter storm watch/warning, since it has the synoptic component. Could perhaps make an argument to convert to LES headlines sometime on Tuesday since it will be transitioning to pure lake effect then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The 18z HRRR is legit save worthy for downtown Chicago. And also very solid for the metro. Which represents a bump from the 12z run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk and it still has a funky meso low jut offshore throwing snow back into NE IL and SE WI at the end of the run at 18z Tuesday Cook county IL transformed into southern Erie county NY I never recall such a setup , usually any Delta T of 20+ with higher inversions will only last an hour or two behind a low and the band swings into IND 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I think he just quickly glanced at the nws warnings map and assumed it was missing michigan. Can never assume without looking at the current trend or models. I dont think he'll make that mistake again lol. All good lansingdewd. Or dewdette. Appreciate it, I did just take a look, only looked on the warning map because it was so crazy. I am not following this storm. I am glad the trends are reeling the storm in for you guys compared to what I saw at a glance. Just annoyed with the hostility. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 If current model indications are accurate, I think this is going to be the largest "spread the wealth" storm we've seen in well over a decade. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: I feel compelled to post the weeniebell kuchera if nothing else to archive Prime for jeb walks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It has the whole state of indiana getting 8+ lol. Close to a foot at dtw. We'll see if these kuchera maps verify for once. It'll be interesting if we get a classic nam18z overamped run here in a bit. The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: I feel compelled to post the weeniebell kuchera if nothing else to archive Without thinking twice, I would give up all of next winter to shift that squarely into mby, especially since we're already starting off with good snow depths. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, LansingWeather said: Appreciate it, I did just take a look, only looked on the warning map because it was so crazy. I am not following this storm. I am glad the trends are reeling the storm in for you guys compared to what I saw at a glance. Just annoyed with the hostility. People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Stevo6899 said: People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie. Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Stevo6899 said: People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie. Ha, for sure! Lansing always seems to miss storms though. Its like it's thing. I did look at GRR and DTX before posting, consensus was 3-4 for Detroit and 1-2 in lansing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Powerball said: Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now? Since covid ive been able to work remotely, so I decided to rent an apartment down here this winter. Been here since nov1. Heading home march 1. Ive lucked out since this winter has been zzzz so far.....nam looks to be a bit SE with the track. Hoping it doesnt start to transfer its energy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Without thinking twice, I would give up all of next winter to shift that squarely into mby, especially since we're already starting off with good snow depths. Can’t believe I’m gonna miss this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Powerball said: The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW... Well that's good to hear since those of us in Detroit and on the Northwest side are banking more on these ratios to get our big totals since the better moisture will be off to the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The NAM giveth and taketh lol Part of what makes it tough is it's hard to pin down when that model is not going to be unstable for this area. Running with roughly what ensemble means show and added detail for lake enhancement probably the way to go for QPF and snow amounts. Figure a 15-20:1 ratio on average and greater than that for lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 the 18z NAM moved back east (McHenry Snow is correct) and according to this model run he will bust high on his 1-2 inch prediction. The 3K NAM is slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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