LansingWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Wow, I just got in the loop with this storm a bit. I don't think I have ever seen the entire state of texas under a WSW before. What a massive storm, too bad it seems to want to avoid the great lakes region. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, LansingWeather said: Wow, I just got in the loop with this storm a bit. I don't think I have ever seen the entire state of texas under a WAW before. What a massive storm, too bad it seems to want to avoid the great lakes region. That is impressive. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that either. The entire state. Mind boggling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z Euro with a bump back SE from 6z run. Ends up very similar to 0z run, which had the initial bump NW. Going to be some wicked variation across Cook Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm calling 3" here total in GRR on 0.2" liquid. Hope I bust low. I just don't buy that it will be super high ratio. Will probably be mostly small flake dust as fringe synoptic events tend to be under cold conditions. Lake influence areas will get better flake size and fluff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z Euro with a bump back SE from 6z run. what is the official snow depth at ORD? Fridays end of the day climate report had 13 they had an obs yesterday showing 15 (and 1 inch that hour) and they got more after that This morning climate report for Saturday has them back down to 13????? the record I believe is 29 back in 1979 with luck with the LES parking over them they may have 22-24 inches going into midweek I assume the correct current number is higher then 13?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Going to be some wicked variation across Cook Co Wow, those totals are higher than Ive seen. I havent been following this storm though, but GRR has only 2-3 inches in the lansing area. Hope it bodes better than that for you guys! The map above is such a nice spread the wealth storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 thinking 4-6" here which is decent bump from thoughts yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said: what is the official snow depth at ORD? I assume the correct current number is higher then 13?? The fluff settles/sublimates quick. I doubt it’s much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, tuanis said: The fluff settles/sublimates quick. I doubt it’s much more than that. Yes I know but surely yesterdays 3.2 added something to the snowpack EDit: Dekalb and and Genoa +2 net change for example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 27 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Nov 2015 storm a perfect example And November 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: Wow, those totals are higher than Ive seen. I havent been following this storm though, but GRR has only 2-3 inches in the lansing area. Hope it bodes better than that for you guys! The map above is such a nice spread the wealth storm That it's a long-duration event with two periods of light snow might pump up the numbers. If they clear the snowboard after every inch you might end up with a sum of 4", even though it's only 3" additional on the ground at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baum said: thinking 4-6" here which is decent bump from thoughts yesterday. I'm not sold that high yet though.. Waiting for trend to continue Are you banking LE makes it this far west? Or more synoptic snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: That is impressive. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that either. The entire state. Mind boggling. whats also crazy is that almost all of Louisiana and Mississippi under winter storm warnings as well. Add it all together with Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana, Mississippi and parts of Alabama this is a storm that will go down in the record books for them as I dont know the last time they've all been under warnings at the same time. Crazy thing is once this departs down there Monday evening, a lot of those same areas go right back to winter storm watch for Wednesday and Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Going to be some wicked variation across Cook Co Interesting to see the lack of a better lake enhanced signal on the Chicago side of the lake. I think you probably discount it at this point as almost all signs point to the Illinois side getting pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Another huge run from the euro!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Will go 1-2" unless more NW shifts occur Certainly no reason to expect better up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Interesting to see the lack of a better lake enhanced signal on the Chicago side of the lake. I think you probably discount it at this point as almost all signs point to the Illinois side getting pounded. No soup for you.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Breaking the waves down for Toledo Metro, I'm thinking 2-3 for wave #1 and 7-9 for wave #2 for a total of 9-12. I came to this conclusion by taking the average qpf of all models minus the highest (NAM3k) and lowest (GEM) which ended up being 0.62" and a ratio of 15-18:1 overall. Looking at trends there should be a WWA for wave #1 and a WSW for wave #2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Will go 1-2" for here/QC. NAMs showing 3-4" but not gonna fall for that this time lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 28 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: Wow, I just got in the loop with this storm a bit. I don't think I have ever seen the entire state of texas under a WSW before. What a massive storm, too bad it seems to want to avoid the great lakes region. It's not going to avoid the Great Lakes region 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, ohiocat5908 said: Breaking the waves down for Toledo Metro, I'm thinking 2-3 for wave #1 and 7-9 for wave #2 for a total of 9-12. I came to this conclusion by taking the average qpf of all models minus the highest (NAM3k) and lowest (GEM) which ended up being 0.62" and a ratio of 15-18:1 overall. Looking at trends there should be a WWA for wave #1 and a WSW for wave #2. Good thinking but just go with a WSW for the sake of simplicity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z HRW WRF-ARW Destroys northern cook county that small orange dot representing 30 inches of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Will go 1-2" for here/QC. NAMs showing 3-4" but not gonna fall for that this time lol. NAMs are obvious outliers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: NAMs are obvious outliers. Question why are they outliers when u have the GFSv16,GEM, RGEM , UKMET and both NAMS pretty much in agreement? They could all be wrong but please back up your statement. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12z HRW WRF-ARW Destroys northern cook county that small orange dot representing 30 inches of snow Fwiw, my observation over the years has been that the ARW tends to have some westward bias. So maybe put that 30" around Evanston or so lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: low-ball still. Not sure if it's being mentioned much, but that's a hell of a DGZ to work with. Ratios are going to be sky-high on a broad swath of N/NW flank of the storm. DGZs are between 200-400mb in depth and wind shear is low, which would cut down on shattering/breaking aggregates. Saturation isn't great, but it's not bad, either. Pretty telling when the pos-snow depth change products on the models are significantly higher than the classic 10:1 maps. You don't often see that kind of delta. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Looks like 8-11 inches in warning areas in Indiana update. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It's not going to avoid the Great Lakes region I meant relatively. Also this board doesnt count the eastern lakes. Most people here are from western OH west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Not sure if it's being mentioned much, but that's a hell of a DGZ to work with. Ratios are going to be sky-high on a broad swath of N/NW flank of the storm. DGZs are between 200-400mb in depth and wind shear is low, which would cut down on shattering/breaking aggregates. Saturation isn't great, but it's not bad, either. Pretty telling when the pos-snow depth change products on the models are significantly higher than the classic 10:1 maps. You don't often see that kind of delta. One of the best in the game 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Looks like there is a pretty solid layer of Ice (with maybe even snow on it) from south central Cook county SE to Lake/Porter border area on the SW tip of the lake north of there is Ice just offshore but this looks more like ice flows with some gaps any thoughts on that being a factor ? do the models factor this in when spitting out the huge LES numbers inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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