iluvsnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS for the late week storm takes a decided move East.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, iluvsnow said: GFS for the late week storm takes a decided move East.... It’ll come west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 there is a thread for that potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Sciascia said: 15z RAP going hard on LES Haven't looked in detail yet but conceptually, I'd think this farther northwest surface low track would make it even more likely that the band parks in Illinois for a while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 15z RAP with 14-18” around Chicago metro by 12pm Tuesday (with LES still falling at IL lakeshore at 51hrs) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The high ratio snow mixed with the gusts of 20-25 will create a disaster. It’s not going to take much wind with this fluff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Haven't looked in detail yet but conceptually, I'd think this farther northwest surface low track would make it even more likely that the band parks in Illinois for a while. Seems fairly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Haven't looked in detail yet but conceptually, I'd think this farther northwest surface low track would make it even more likely that the band parks in Illinois for a while. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z UKMET continues the bump NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cartier God Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 in like a day this shifted from looking like a 3-5" event here to potential for the strongest snowstorm of the winter. the nw trend really works wonders on my weenie. as much as i wanna lock in the weenie maps, 7 inches sounds good for my final call. if ur reading this i hope u get some snow dawg 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Chambana said: The high ratio snow mixed with the gusts of 20-25 will create a disaster. It’s not going to take much wind with this fluff. Yeah hoping for minimal wind once this stuff turns to sugar. Always seems like we're the last to see a plow out where I'm at. Plus its going to be falling on top of a mini Cyclone77 glacier so little resistance to hold it in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenwald Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 535 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 Confidence is medium in the forecast overall, with greater confidence in the southeast and lower confidence along the northwestern fringes. The totals occur over a 36 hour period, so we fall short of warning criteria in our far southeastern CWA. In collaboration with neighbors, opted to keep a high-end advisory for now, with potential for upgrade to a warning if the more aggressive solutions (NAM/ECMWF) look more likely. The first system will lift in tonight and exit by Monday afternoon/early evening before the next system if the GFS/GEM are correct. However, the ECMWF and especially the NAM keep the precipitation ongoing through that period, and develop a coupled jet structure right around 00z--which really amps things up as far as forcing goes. In addition, the ECMWF/NAM also have a weaker surface high sprawled across the midwest (as opposed to the GEM/GFS solution), which allows for that secondary low to lift further northwest as the stronger mid level trough inches eastward into Monday night/Tuesday. As far as Thursday`s system goes, both the ECMWF/GFS bring the upper level trough into the upper Great Lakes, and the subsequent strong surface low northeastward from the gulf into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio (the GFS faster and deeper with the system). With a negatively tilted trough and deepening surface low, I tend to go with the stronger solution and further northwest track. So have likely pops in the eastern CWA (mainly along/east of I 69) late Wednesday night into Thursday evening, and high end chances for the central CWA (lowest west half). Think this could be a better system than these first two, but a lot could change by then with this active short/mid term forecast so will hold off on any further discussion. So IWX may go to a warning, who knows. Forecasting 3-5 inches for us right now. Also a possible second "better" system on Thursday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 maybe people will stop trash talking the GFSv16 and actually realize it'll be an improvement on the current GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yeah hoping for minimal wind once this stuff turns to sugar. Always seems like we're the last to see a plow out where I'm at. Plus its going to be falling on top of a mini Cyclone77 glacier so little resistance to hold it in place. Same here. Starting to hear the B word thrown around. Doubt it meets strict criteria but close enough we might get some pretty sizable drifts.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G935A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 LOT has hoisted a Watch for the potentially LES impacted areas. No other changes to headlines for the others. Still going 2-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, madwx said: maybe people will stop trash talking the GFSv16 and actually realize it'll be an improvement on the current GFS I think it needs to prove itself for a few storms for people to take it seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Chicago WX said: LOT has hoisted a Watch for the potentially LES impacted areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 WWA updated at 10:30am and sticking with 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11AM IPA. Storm mode initiated. Hoping for 8”. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 ^ gonna be toast before the first flake. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Greenwald said: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 535 AM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 Confidence is medium in the forecast overall, with greater confidence in the southeast and lower confidence along the northwestern fringes. The totals occur over a 36 hour period, so we fall short of warning criteria in our far southeastern CWA. In collaboration with neighbors, opted to keep a high-end advisory for now, with potential for upgrade to a warning if the more aggressive solutions (NAM/ECMWF) look more likely. The first system will lift in tonight and exit by Monday afternoon/early evening before the next system if the GFS/GEM are correct. However, the ECMWF and especially the NAM keep the precipitation ongoing through that period, and develop a coupled jet structure right around 00z--which really amps things up as far as forcing goes. In addition, the ECMWF/NAM also have a weaker surface high sprawled across the midwest (as opposed to the GEM/GFS solution), which allows for that secondary low to lift further northwest as the stronger mid level trough inches eastward into Monday night/Tuesday. As far as Thursday`s system goes, both the ECMWF/GFS bring the upper level trough into the upper Great Lakes, and the subsequent strong surface low northeastward from the gulf into the lower Great Lakes/Ohio (the GFS faster and deeper with the system). With a negatively tilted trough and deepening surface low, I tend to go with the stronger solution and further northwest track. So have likely pops in the eastern CWA (mainly along/east of I 69) late Wednesday night into Thursday evening, and high end chances for the central CWA (lowest west half). Think this could be a better system than these first two, but a lot could change by then with this active short/mid term forecast so will hold off on any further discussion. So IWX may go to a warning, who knows. Forecasting 3-5 inches for us right now. Also a possible second "better" system on Thursday! Good grief a better system on Thursday ? So they must be thinking at least 10" for Thurs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 ILX late morning discussion mentions nothing on modeling trends or the system, only focused on windchills Quote .UPDATE... Issued at 1101 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 Trimmed I-55 corridor counties and a few nearby counties out of the wind chill warning due to wind chills rising above -20, and added to wind chill advisory until noon on Monday. Otherwise, have trimmed PoPs in east central IL as the light snow creeping into northeast Missouri in a frontogenetical region should extend into west central IL this afternoon, but is showing signs weakening and narrowing as it moves northward. Temperatures are looking on track with highs in the single digits north of I-70 and lower teens south. and below zero wind chills widespread today. Wind chills should generally remain below zero this afternoon, remaining near 15 below for many areas north of I-70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 24-30 hours until impact and crickets from dtw. I hate to rip them but they are awful. I guess one of these years I'd expect them to improve but that seems like false hope. Editt, i see they have taken down their weather story graphic they added early this am that had a map for 3-6 total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm a bit more optimistic than I was earlier. I'm 12 hours from snow entering my area so models don't mean as much as they did yesterday. Even if this "busts" it's still a significant snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 So did things stop trending NW ? Seems like Ohio is back in play again ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z UKMET continues the bump NW. NW like NAM or NW like gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: ILX late morning discussion mentions nothing on modeling trends or the system, only focused on windchills still calling for 2 inches at PIA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 31 minutes ago, mimillman said: Agree I almost hate to see the nw shift, because it potentially leaves me in a little bit of a no mans land between the heaviest synoptic rates and the longest residence time of the lake band. OTOH, synoptic snow is more reliable to count on and not so subject to micro shifts, so I feel like the floor on amounts is higher than it was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: ILX late morning discussion mentions nothing on modeling trends or the system, only focused on windchills 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: still calling for 2 inches at PIA Yeah I have no clue what ILX is looking at. Not only should there be an advisory area wide but they could honestly about bring warnings up to the IL River. ILX loves to do everything last second but this is pretty ridiculous based on current model trends. Looks like this system could give me a bigger snow than the 2nd system now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Snownado said: So did things stop trending NW ? Seems like Ohio is back in play again ? Only far SE Ohio is at risk of mixing. Track hasn't shifted that much. It's just potentially sharing the wealth more on the NW fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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