Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Gfs took a step in the right direction. Hopefully can shift more nw like euro. But have a feeling with that strong high to the north that a near miss south is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I will take the gfs please 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: It's way too early to be in the concerned phase but just as a matter of that run, the 12z GFS brings back nightmares of 2/24/16. Key takeaway is that it still has a nice storm and would be a good sign if the GEFS members have several good hits. From a sub-forum perspective, looks like a pretty high chance at this range for a widespread warning type event for portions of the sub. now do the weekend event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 CMC says nope LOL. GFS is great eye candy.. Although I am concerned about that HP to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, AWMT30 said: CMC says nope LOL. GFS is great eye candy.. Although I am concerned about that HP to the NW Same here. Depends on how far south the HP digs. Euro doesn't dig as much and brings good snows nw into IL. Other models not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I will take the gfs please It's not often you see both Dallas and Detroit get crushed with powdery snow from the same storm in mid-February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 8 minutes ago, Powerball said: It's not often you see both Dallas and Detroit get crushed with powdery snow from the same storm in mid-February. its not often Dallas gets any snow let alone powdery snow. The likely over done gfs is ungodly for Dallas. temps 52 degrees below avg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: the likely over done gfs is ungodly for Dallas. temps 52 degrees below avg. Temps might not even be overdone. Models are already running several degrees behind with the shallow low-level cold air (we've been stuck in the low/mid 30s). Imagine how much colder it will get with a deep snowpack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ukmet going big at the end of the run, obv favoring eastern portions of sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: Gfs took a step in the right direction. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 46 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: ukmet going big at the end of the run, obv favoring eastern portions of sub We gotta get a shortwave with some strength to come along before this cold air retreats and were back to dealing with precip issues. Early indications the euro is still gonna have a respectable storm based on the ridging and location of high pressure. Maybe a lil further east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: We gotta get a shortwave with some strength to come along before this cold air retreats and were back to dealing with precip issues liking the extended. cold doesn't look to be retreating anytime soon. deep winter to continue. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The Euro looks like it's coming way nw with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Um..... The only problem is the surface front and deep moisture are still well-removed from the upper low center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Weeks ago I scheduled errands to run for myself and mom on the 16th so this is definitely going to be a big dawg. You're welcome, guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 You want spread the wealth? The 12z Euro is that. 6"+ snowstorm for much of NE/KS/TX/IA/MO/AR/WI/IL/IN/MI. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ride it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I this case the farther NW solutions are weaker, quicker, and less phased. The optimal big dog phase location is a whiff southeast for me. Just can't win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 25 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Um..... The only problem is the surface front and deep moisture are still well-removed from the upper low center. An occluded mess with a big-ass dry slot shutting things off early. Most of the moisture is shunted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 snow action being driven by the ull, 850 travels over central il despite slp well south suspect this event is suffering from the too tight wave spacing that has impacted some of the others, short waves off the pac come too fast, heights never have a chance to really rise in the east and the baroclinic zone remains shunted south preventing anything big from spinning up. v-day weekend going to dust is probably helping give this a lil more of a window but u know the deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: snow action being driven by the ull, 850 travels over central il despite slp well south suspect this event is suffering from the too tight wave spacing that has impacted some of the others, short waves off the pac come too fast, heights never have a chance to really rise in the east and the baroclinic zone remains shunted south preventing anything big from spinning up. v-day weekend going to dust is probably helping give this a lil more of a window but u know the deal. We might've been talking rainer here if the lobe to the north wasn't there/moved out quickly. Obviously can have too much of a good thing to where it suppresses this too far south. Anything is possible but generally speaking, I like the chances of a noteworthy storm in the sub. I see more than one way to get there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: We might've been talking rainer here if the lobe to the north wasn't there/moved out quickly. Obviously can have too much of a good thing to where it suppresses this too far south. Anything is possible but generally speaking, I like the chances of a noteworthy storm in the sub. I see more than one way to get there. Suppression is better for the southeastern forum. You'll have the possibility of a better low to dump in the OV, maybe as far northeast as DTX. Just Alek and me will get whiffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This would be sooo much better if this weekends storm would materialize into something. I feel like we a chasing ghosts if nothing actually happens that is even close to the models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Frog Town said: This would be sooo much better if this weekends storm would materialize into something. I feel like we a chasing ghosts if nothing actually happens that is even close to the models. Seems like something will happen. It's just a matter of what and where. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 EPS is hotter and hotter. Trends are worth continuing to watch because there are now a couple of members that shift the confluence out so quickly that it bombs out to near 980 passing west of ORD. Mean low goes from the Ohio Valley to Lake Huron. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 v good to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 KLOT (not ricky) Attention will then turn to the Monday/Tuesday timeframe for another round of snow. Ensemble model guidance is in relatively good agreement that a storm system will lift form the Plains to the Great Lakes dropping a swath of snow along the backside. Statistical Cluster Analysis from the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) shows that ~70% of the CMC, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble members drop at least 0.1" of precipitation across northern Illinois and northwest Indiana, with ~50% dropping at least 0.25". The CMC model system is the driest, while the ECMWF is the wettest. With forecast low-level thermal profiles expected to remain cold and squarely in the snowflake growth zone, fluffy snow ratios will again be able to convert even just 0.10" of liquid to several inches of snow. So, we`ll need to keep a keen eye on the Monday/Tuesday timeframe for an impactful snow event somewhere in the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Have no fear about a storm getting suppressed SE of you guys. It never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Where were you all of last winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 48 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: Where were you all of last winter I wish there was a sarcasm tag 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts