OhioWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Cautiously optimistic in SW Ohio. The overachiever on the 8-9th and now this just feels too good to be true. Year after year of disappointing winters... I’m not used to being spoiled like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 If that Euro were to verify I'm looking 3-6". More optimistic than I've been thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, OhioWX said: Cautiously optimistic in SW Ohio. The overachiever on the 8-9th and now this just feels too good to be true. Year after year of disappointing winters... I’m not used to being spoiled like this. you deserve it ! good luck ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, OhioWX said: Cautiously optimistic in SW Ohio. The overachiever on the 8-9th and now this just feels too good to be true. Year after year of disappointing winters... I’m not used to being spoiled like this. I think this is our jackpot storm. Yes, we are normally lacking in solid snowfall events. It's tough for us to get more than 3-4" at any point. I just hope the end of this week doesn't bring a crippling ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 If that Euro were to verify I'm looking 3-6". More optimistic than I've been thinking. Thankfully there's good support now from all the non-GFS op models. It may not be done trending either. Distinct trend to weaken the confluence from the departing PV lobe due to an earlier escape east and strengthening ridging out ahead of the system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Reeling this one way in here in Detroit. Gonna need headlines for sure haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Plumes up again at ord, now higher than gyy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Everything looks good for Kokomo but the NWS forecast remains tempered at 2-4" advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6z new kid in town 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 In addition to the changes with weakening confluence and strengthening eastern ridging, doesn't hurt that the 500 mb shortwave is trending stronger and more neutrally to close to negatively tilted. This also feeds back to the background ridging out ahead of the system, with an additional bump in height rises. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Trends have been great for SE MI. North trends seem to be the theme this year. Snow depth could really be something by Friday if these next 2 produce. Current depth in SE MI ranges from 5-9" however outside of the top fluffy layer from yesterday its a pretty solid depth. Layer upon layer of light snows have settled/compressed so it's like walking in frozen sugary sand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 From my coworker at LOT on shift today: "Yeah, this really got interesting. 0.5" QPF contour comes into our CWA now, already chatting with neighbors we'll have to increase totals perhaps by a factor of 2. Also, NBM gives Chicago a foot of LES. If the NBM is doing that, we're in trouble. Could envision having to issue a warning for a good chunk of the area." 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: Everything looks good for Kokomo but the NWS forecast remains tempered at 2-4" advisory level. They'll adjust it at last minute like always. I swear they just hug the crappy gfs op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z HRRR is acceptable. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, zinski1990 said: They'll adjust it at last minute like always. I swear they just hug the crappy gfs op 12Z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said: This one really brings me back to my younger days and trying to descramble Skinimax. The trend is our friend for Monday’s storm. Keep it coming. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, tuanis said: This one really brings me back to my younger days and trying to descramble Skinimax. The trend is our friend for Monday’s storm. Keep it coming. Trend is our friend. WAGONS NORTH! Went from a DAB yesterday to being in a solid advisory event now. LES is going to be epic. We will be unmoderated for awhile while Hoosier blacks out in joy. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Negative tilt is becoming more pronounced across the Southern Plains before ejection: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM looking good with precip more organized further NW of slp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: Negative tilt is becoming more pronounced across the Southern Plains before ejection: Resulting in significant changes at the surface 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 12z HRRR is acceptable. Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 56 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Thankfully there's good support now from all the non-GFS op models. It may not be done trending either. Distinct trend to weaken the confluence from the departing PV lobe due to an earlier escape east and strengthening ridging out ahead of the system. So your saying my area still has a shot at shoveling?lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just comparing the 0z NAM to the 12z run...needless to say...wagons north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 So your saying my area still has a shot at shoveling?lolYes, see new NAM rolling out haha Edit: Warning amounts for much of the metro through 09z Tuesday and still snowing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM 54 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 STAT TIME: Chicago’s snowiest month on record is January 1918 with 42.5”. If this storm/lake effect pans out, February 2021 is gonna be hot on its heels. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 . 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 On 2/13/2021 at 6:05 AM, A-L-E-K said: yeah bad nw/se synoptic gradient enhanced by missing the lake effect hopefully we get some unforeseen favorable trends with the 12z guidance now that we have full sampling of pac sw On 2/13/2021 at 6:20 AM, Chicago Storm said: zzzzz . Yikes.gif 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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