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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Add this to the pound town models.  

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2021021400_78_2250_220.thumb.png.39c1fd24fcc53c5344b6db66f2a25e23.png

Right in the bullseye on that one. However I’m fully preparing myself for a only few bands sweeping through while any main show sets up just to the east. Hopefully wrong but it’s hard to be excited when a few miles in any direction can make a break you on snow totals.

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LOT
 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WATCH:  
  
A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COOK COUNTY AND LAKE   
COUNTY IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO  
THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT LAKE   
EFFECT SNOW EVENT.  
  
OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN   
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES   
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO THE   
EXPECTATION OF 2 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE NEXT   
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.  

LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND   
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. MOST NOTABLE, IS THE STRONG SIGNAL IN FORECAST   
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER   
CONVERGENCE BAND ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. THIS   
LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROMINENT SINGLE BAND OF   
HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING, LIKELY INITIALLY IMPACTING PORTER  
IN. THERMODYAMICS OVER THE LAKE LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VERY   
HEAVY SNOW RATES IN THIS DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW, WITH LAKE INDUCED  
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOKING TO TOP OUT AROUND 6-7,000 FEET LATE TONIGHT   
AND ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT  
MAINLY PORTER COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING, SIGNS POINT AT IT SHIFTING   
WESTWARD OVER LAKE COUNTY IN LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT   
TONIGHT, BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING OVER PARTS OF COOK COUNTY ON MONDAY.  
  
CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THAT PARTS OF COOK COUNTY, INCLUDING  
MUCH OF THE CITY OF CHICAGO COULD BE IN THE LINE OF FIRE FROM THIS  
POTENTIAL BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY.  
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THIS BAND OF   
SNOW, WE COULD SEE SOME AMOUNTS TOTAL UP WELL OVER 6" IN PARTS OF   
THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO   
SEE SOME AREAS SEE IN EXCESS OF A FOOT.   
  
OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREA, AN APPROACH WEATHER DISTURBANCE   
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY   
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND BETTER MOISTURE LOOK TO FAVOR   
EAST CENTRAL IL AND INTO IN FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE AREA   
(2 TO 5"). THIS IS THE GENERAL AREA IN WHICH WE ISSUED THE WINTER   
WEATHER ADVISORY. LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK PROBABLE   
FARTHER NORTH, FOR INLAND AREAS OF CHICAGO METRO. DRIER AIR POTENTIAL   
WILL RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO A DUSTING OVER FAR   
NORTH CENTRAL IL.  
  
THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY   
COLD, WITH NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS TO -25 REMAINING PROBABLE THROUGH   
MONDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  
  
BKL/KJB  

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I'm within my model semi trust range of 24hrs.  Some of the 06Z runs are pretty impressive with synoptic snow of 6in up to Chicago.  I'm going to call 8 here by 12Z Tuesday.  I think some of the lower amount models are undercutting ratios, some as low as 12:1 from some of the soundings.  Not buying .4 -.5 qpf through 72 hours with 5 or 6 inches of snow.  We should see 15:1 minimum around here even with fairly warm 700mb temps at times.  Think its going to be more like a "mountain" snow with cold temps and a pretty deep DGZ nearly to the surface, light wind, nice size flakes, moderate to heavy at times, but a solid 24hrs of it. :weenie: 

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I’m a teacher and have lurked on these boards during winter for probably the last three or four years- always love a snow day.

Lived in Blacksburg VA for a bit, then DFW last year and now I am back near home in Columbus teaching 4th grade. Sometimes I show my class the Tropical Tidbits models and they love it. I saw the call for lurkers to post so figured I would.. excited for the storm!

If we get Tuesday off it would be 3 straight Tuesday snow days- not bad. Unless they make us teach remotely, though it seems that if they have to close the buildings for admin they just give us a real snow day. 

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10 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

 

 

Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform. 

Is that Northern IN or fringe of ILN CWA? I know the criteria is different the further North you go. 

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.

9 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

image.thumb.png.7ed1e7379b76a88745bfaa7be66054d0.png

 

Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform. 

 I hope DTX doesn't issue any headlines because when they're too conservative they always get burned and we end up with a good storm. Every winter there's a storm where they issue an advisory then upgrade to a warning an hour after 8 inches has already fallen. They've always sucked.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Euro bumpin again. If the guidance trends are to be believed, our amounts aside from LES going to need to be adjusted upward and headlines are going to need to be adjusted northwest today.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Im sure we wouldn't mind if you generously posted the weenie kuchera for this. Thanks in advance.

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Just now, fyrfyter said:

Is that Northern IN or fringe of ILN CWA? I know the criteria is different the further North you go. 

It's both northern IN, ILN, and CLE. From what I've read so far is ILN is treating this as a two part storm and they don't think those areas will reach warning criteria from either wave, despite ending up with 8" overall.

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4 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

It's both northern IN, ILN, and CLE. From what I've read so far is ILN is treating this as a two part storm and they don't think those areas will reach warning criteria from either wave, despite ending up with 8" overall.

ILN Warning for here says 5-8, but the ILN graphic says 6-9... You would think those should agree with each other. 

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4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'll post shortly, will post the total QPF, Kuchera and 10:1 for reference.

 

Edit: Here you go

 

 

 

7584df794f804f9c77c9178ba3830467.jpg72a8c7aa6ceafd218cc251b4189fa93b.jpg366ccad1ae715b80d3c1928715928463.jpg

 What's your take on the kuchera map totals.  Normally you have to at least cut those by 25% but in this setup with Arctic air in place, it's possible they could be more accurate?

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 What's your take on the kuchera map totals.  Normally you have to at least cut those by 25% but in this setup with Arctic air in place, it's possible they could be more accurate?

They still look overdone, but in this air mass have a chance to be closer to correct in spots. Unfortunately Pivotal Weather doesn't have the 06z run to make a direct comparison. It largely comes down to how deep the DGZ is, how strong the omega is, and how well aligned it is with the DGZ regarding ratios. Having the cold air mass certainly helps when the lift is strong and well aligned with the DGZ.   

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

They still look overdone, but in this air mass have a chance to be closer to correct in spots. Unfortunately Pivotal Weather doesn't have the 06z run to make a direct comparison. It largely comes down to how strong the omega is and how well aligned it is with the DGZ regarding ratios. Having the cold air mass certainly helps when the lift is strong and well aligned with the DGZ.  

 

 

 

 

So you are saying there's a non-zero chance of Indy getting double digits ?

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So you are saying there's a non-zero chance of Indy getting double digits ?

If the liquid equivalent of 0.6" for that run is close, absolutely possible to get double digits. Averaging a 17:1 ratio would get it done at that liquid equivalent. The WxBell Kuchera algorithm has an average around 23:1 which is very likely still overdone for an average. However, in these events, within mesoscale banding if the thermal profile is favorable for a deep DGZ, and strong lift is well aligned with the DGZ you can get at least temporary >20:1 ratios.

 

 

 

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

If the liquid equivalent of 0.6" for that run is close, absolutely possible to get double digits. Averaging a 17:1 ratio would get it done at that liquid equivalent. The WxBell Kuchera algorithm has an average around 23:1 which is very likely still overdone for an average. However, in these events, within mesoscale banding if the thermal profile is favorable for a deep DGZ, and strong lift is well aligned with the DGZ you can get at least temporary >20:1 ratios.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I've only seen double digits once in my life (10" in the blizzard of 93) so it would be cool to at least tie that. 

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