Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Last 4 NAM runs valid at 6z Tuesday. I guess the question is if it is done trending. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btcs31 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Add this to the pound town models. Right in the bullseye on that one. However I’m fully preparing myself for a only few bands sweeping through while any main show sets up just to the east. Hopefully wrong but it’s hard to be excited when a few miles in any direction can make a break you on snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 LOT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WATCH: A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY IN FOR TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AND PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT. OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH AREA, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR ALL COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-57 CORRIDOR. THIS WAS DONE DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF 2 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON MONDAY. MOST NOTABLE, IS THE STRONG SIGNAL IN FORECAST GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE INDUCED BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE BAND ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE LAKE THIS EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PROMINENT SINGLE BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THIS EVENING, LIKELY INITIALLY IMPACTING PORTER IN. THERMODYAMICS OVER THE LAKE LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VERY HEAVY SNOW RATES IN THIS DEVELOPING BAND OF SNOW, WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS LOOKING TO TOP OUT AROUND 6-7,000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND ON MONDAY. WHILE THIS BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO IMPACT MAINLY PORTER COUNTY EARLY THIS EVENING, SIGNS POINT AT IT SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER LAKE COUNTY IN LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BEFORE FINALLY SHIFTING OVER PARTS OF COOK COUNTY ON MONDAY. CONCERNS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THAT PARTS OF COOK COUNTY, INCLUDING MUCH OF THE CITY OF CHICAGO COULD BE IN THE LINE OF FIRE FROM THIS POTENTIAL BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RATES IN THIS BAND OF SNOW, WE COULD SEE SOME AMOUNTS TOTAL UP WELL OVER 6" IN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME AREAS SEE IN EXCESS OF A FOOT. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE EFFECT AREA, AN APPROACH WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND BETTER MOISTURE LOOK TO FAVOR EAST CENTRAL IL AND INTO IN FOR THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE AREA (2 TO 5"). THIS IS THE GENERAL AREA IN WHICH WE ISSUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES LOOK PROBABLE FARTHER NORTH, FOR INLAND AREAS OF CHICAGO METRO. DRIER AIR POTENTIAL WILL RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS TAPERING OFF TO A DUSTING OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL IL. THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD, WITH NEGATIVE WIND CHILLS TO -25 REMAINING PROBABLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BKL/KJB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Would be blown away to see more than 6 of pure LES, so hard to do here but looks like it's on the table. P wild 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9z RAP is bullseye for imby with band(s) still raging tho I suspect best is just south based on climo alone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm within my model semi trust range of 24hrs. Some of the 06Z runs are pretty impressive with synoptic snow of 6in up to Chicago. I'm going to call 8 here by 12Z Tuesday. I think some of the lower amount models are undercutting ratios, some as low as 12:1 from some of the soundings. Not buying .4 -.5 qpf through 72 hours with 5 or 6 inches of snow. We should see 15:1 minimum around here even with fairly warm 700mb temps at times. Think its going to be more like a "mountain" snow with cold temps and a pretty deep DGZ nearly to the surface, light wind, nice size flakes, moderate to heavy at times, but a solid 24hrs of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: 6z NAM with a bump northwest. Rgem as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6z euro is ticking NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
614teacher Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I’m a teacher and have lurked on these boards during winter for probably the last three or four years- always love a snow day. Lived in Blacksburg VA for a bit, then DFW last year and now I am back near home in Columbus teaching 4th grade. Sometimes I show my class the Tropical Tidbits models and they love it. I saw the call for lurkers to post so figured I would.. excited for the storm! If we get Tuesday off it would be 3 straight Tuesday snow days- not bad. Unless they make us teach remotely, though it seems that if they have to close the buildings for admin they just give us a real snow day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro bumpin again. If the guidance trends are to be believed, our amounts aside from LES going to need to be adjusted upward and headlines are going to need to be adjusted northwest today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform. Is that Northern IN or fringe of ILN CWA? I know the criteria is different the further North you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 . 9 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Classic lowball advisory calling for 5"-7" here. NWS must not be buying the NW bumps yet. Even though I'm in a warning, I feel like areas to my NW will out perform. I hope DTX doesn't issue any headlines because when they're too conservative they always get burned and we end up with a good storm. Every winter there's a storm where they issue an advisory then upgrade to a warning an hour after 8 inches has already fallen. They've always sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 What a run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Euro bumpin again. If the guidance trends are to be believed, our amounts aside from LES going to need to be adjusted upward and headlines are going to need to be adjusted northwest today. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Im sure we wouldn't mind if you generously posted the weenie kuchera for this. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Can someone post the 6z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Stevo6899 said: Im sure we wouldn't mind if you generously posted the weenie kuchera for this. Thanks in advance. It is 12-15" for Detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, fyrfyter said: Is that Northern IN or fringe of ILN CWA? I know the criteria is different the further North you go. It's both northern IN, ILN, and CLE. From what I've read so far is ILN is treating this as a two part storm and they don't think those areas will reach warning criteria from either wave, despite ending up with 8" overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, AWMT30 said: It is 12-15" for Detroit I figured but pink and white are my fav colors, and its only fitting to start my day with a lovely map today. Happy vday to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'll post shortly, will post the total QPF, Kuchera and 10:1 for reference. Edit: Here you go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Man this thing is screaming NW. I went from being on the NW fringe of heavier snow to almost a mix in just 12 hours of runs. Hopefully just windshield wiper effect here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fyrfyter Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Gino27 said: It's both northern IN, ILN, and CLE. From what I've read so far is ILN is treating this as a two part storm and they don't think those areas will reach warning criteria from either wave, despite ending up with 8" overall. ILN Warning for here says 5-8, but the ILN graphic says 6-9... You would think those should agree with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I'll post shortly, will post the total QPF, Kuchera and 10:1 for reference. Edit: Here you go What's your take on the kuchera map totals. Normally you have to at least cut those by 25% but in this setup with Arctic air in place, it's possible they could be more accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'll post shortly, will post the total QPF, Kuchera and 10:1 for reference. Edit: Here you go QPF total got messed up so trying again Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 What's your take on the kuchera map totals. Normally you have to at least cut those by 25% but in this setup with Arctic air in place, it's possible they could be more accurate?They still look overdone, but in this air mass have a chance to be closer to correct in spots. Unfortunately Pivotal Weather doesn't have the 06z run to make a direct comparison. It largely comes down to how deep the DGZ is, how strong the omega is, and how well aligned it is with the DGZ regarding ratios. Having the cold air mass certainly helps when the lift is strong and well aligned with the DGZ. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: They still look overdone, but in this air mass have a chance to be closer to correct in spots. Unfortunately Pivotal Weather doesn't have the 06z run to make a direct comparison. It largely comes down to how strong the omega is and how well aligned it is with the DGZ regarding ratios. Having the cold air mass certainly helps when the lift is strong and well aligned with the DGZ. So you are saying there's a non-zero chance of Indy getting double digits ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 So you are saying there's a non-zero chance of Indy getting double digits ?If the liquid equivalent of 0.6" for that run is close, absolutely possible to get double digits. Averaging a 17:1 ratio would get it done at that liquid equivalent. The WxBell Kuchera algorithm has an average around 23:1 which is very likely still overdone for an average. However, in these events, within mesoscale banding if the thermal profile is favorable for a deep DGZ, and strong lift is well aligned with the DGZ you can get at least temporary >20:1 ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: If the liquid equivalent of 0.6" for that run is close, absolutely possible to get double digits. Averaging a 17:1 ratio would get it done at that liquid equivalent. The WxBell Kuchera algorithm has an average around 23:1 which is very likely still overdone for an average. However, in these events, within mesoscale banding if the thermal profile is favorable for a deep DGZ, and strong lift is well aligned with the DGZ you can get at least temporary >20:1 ratios. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I've only seen double digits once in my life (10" in the blizzard of 93) so it would be cool to at least tie that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Here's a better zoom for the 06z Euro, Kuchera output and 10:1 for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Here's a better zoom for the 06z Euro, Kuchera output and 10:1 for reference. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Additionally, QPF, sleet and freezing rain output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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