zinski1990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: We need to get some more central and southern members on here lol I know theres more. Most never or rarely post though. I think generally the southern side of the forums members are quiter and just lurk more 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Wagons west on every model for 00z. Dtx's going forecast of 1 to 3 is definitely going up. Id argue the eastern 2 tiers and the thumb needing a watch with current model trends. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 45 minutes ago, mimillman said: Any way y’a slice it, this is a very impressive lake effect signal and arguably the most promising set up in years for delivery in the Chicago metro This has a shot to be highly disruptive/borderline crippling for a localized area that stays under it the longest. Blowing/drifting not necessarily a major factor but there should be a bit of wind. The heavy rates and very cold temps could make it very difficult for road crews to keep up with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Stebo said: Wagons west on every model for 00z. Dtx's going forecast of 1 to 3 is definitely going up. Id argue the eastern 2 tiers and the thumb needing a watch with current model trends. That comment earlier u said after that one post about the high pressure placement. You said this seals it it's coming north now lol. You were sarcastic but probably right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geddyweather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: I'm surprised these boards are not on fire right now. Lol Fwiw I came home from work to see the NW shift happen and have looked like the cat in the HeavyBreathing.gif ever since. That said, I am taking some of the gaudier totals on Kuchera maps with a grain of salt. As discussed at length, temperature profiles are going to be good pretty much across the board for high-ratio snowfalls, but of course there are other factors at play when it comes to SLRs. Thinking that knocking a couple inches off all across the board may not be a bad idea but we’ll see. Feel for the folks in the WFOs around here. Going to be a hectic couple of days. G 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, geddyweather said: Fwiw I came home fr Quote om work to see the NW shift happen and have looked like the cat in the HeavyBreathing.gif ever since. That said, I am taking some of the gaudier totals on Kuchera maps with a grain of salt. As discussed at length, temperature profiles are going to be good pretty much across the board for high-ratio snowfalls, but of course there are other factors at play when it comes to SLRs. Thinking that knocking a couple inches off all across the board may not be a bad idea but we’ll see. Feel for the folks in the WFOs around here. Going to be a hectic couple of days. G I agree for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 For all of you who have been deserving this snow for a while, I hope it delivers and then some. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: For all of you who have been deserving this snow for a while, I hope it delivers and then some. I like nice people 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 56 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Reference LES - LOT AFD update (click link for additional discussion on tomorrow night and Monday): Add this to the pound town models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro with a wide swath of 6”+ from Chicago & points SE (majority 10 inch totals in Indiana). Oddly enough, is the first 0z run I’ve seen tonight without a strong western LM lake signal. Or, I should say, no wacky weenie results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 21 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Add this to the pound town models. Euro came a good bit NW w/ the back edge of precip late Monday (as compared to 12Z). Hi res models are showing the EL close to 2km which is more than enough for the heavy rates you’ve been hinting at, and having the synoptic support tomorrow night and again Monday nights helps guarantee sufficient moisture. My hunch is that LOT is a bit gun shy given the tendency for hi res to overdo LES earlier in the season, but there are a lot more reasons to believe it this round than not, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 The way I see it, the population of this board is sort of representative of the general population. The Chicago metro area has something like 9 million people, so you would expect more Chicago area posters here than, say, Indianapolis or Cincinnati area posters. That being said, to anybody in the Ohio Valley area who is lurking, feel free to join in. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Okay, I noticed there is a relative lack of southern/eastern sub-forum members posting on this event so I decided to hop in. Long time lurker of 6 years, from NW KY. It's been quite awhile since I have seen this much consensus on a 6"+ storm for the Lower OH Valley. Excited to say the least! Was somewhat questioning last night's 0z GFS sporting the progressive bias, but pretty much all late evening runs have corrected back to the west. Thankfully this go around we won't have any icing issues in my vicinity, received almost .50 of that from the ice storm a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The way I see it, the population of this board is sort of representative of the general population. The Chicago metro area has something like 9 million people, so you would expect more Chicago area posters here than, say, Indianapolis or Cincinnati area posters. That being said, to anybody in the Ohio Valley area who is lurking, feel free to join in. Still can't believe I'm the only one who ever posts from the DVN cwa, other than the CR crew on DVN's northwest edge. The QCA is a fairly high population area relatively speaking, so for me to be the only one here is kind of weird lol. Did have some mets in the past (Oceanstwx and Justin) who were great, but they've moved out of the area. Wish some of the DVN peeps who probably peruse the board in the shadows would post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Southern stream said: Okay, I noticed there is a relative lack of southern/eastern sub-forum members posting on this event so I decided to hop in. Long time lurker of 6 years, from NW KY. It's been quite awhile since I have seen this much consensus on a 6"+ storm for the Lower OH Valley. Excited to say the least! Was somewhat questioning last night's 0z GFS sporting the progressive bias, but pretty much all late evening runs have corrected back to the west. Thankfully this go around we won't have any icing issues in my vicinity, received almost .50 of that from the ice storm a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm basically an hour from the PA border in Ohio by lake erie so sometimes i feel alone here too lol lurk alot. haha i know we got the Ohio subfourm bit its not as active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuteirishgirl25 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I live in the Mt Washington area just east of Cincinnati Ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hthe620110 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I live just Northwest of Dayton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern stream Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 PAH and LMK will more than likely up areas to warning headlines by morning, based on the 0z runs a good (maybe even conservative) 6-10"+ swath looking probable considering the ratios we will be dealing with in an arctic airmass. Hopefully you peeps up to my north/northwest can get in on the action too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nice lake event for Chicago. Pretty rare times for totals like that in ne ill. Hrrr model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nice lake event for Chicago. Pretty rare times for totals like that in ne ill. Hrrr model Umm.. HRRR a little Teste with the lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I could see it happen hamilton ontario got 15 to 20 inches past couple days. And on north west side of lake Michigan got got with 20 inches near escanaba today. So there's been a history of historic lake snows in areas past few days that don't get much normaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Street Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I haven’t been this excited about a storm in years! Our local stations are still only calling for 3-4 inches here in Indy. I have a feeling quite a few people are going to wake up surprised Tuesday morning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nice lake event for Chicago. Pretty rare times for totals like that in ne ill. Hrrr model I about fainted when I saw that run lol. Still going nicely at the end of the run. Something with this high of a ceiling doesn't come around too often for the northwest tip of Indiana and especially Chicago. It's not like the traditional snowbelts where you get good chances more often. Yeah there's some synoptic snow to fall back on, but it would sting if this one doesn't live up and produce 12+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 ^that is crazy to see dual maxes of about 18"+. Imagine what could happen if it stalled out in one place for longer than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Hey I am on east side of rochester ny and get this stuff alot. Excited to see areas get it that don't get it alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 6z NAM with a bump northwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM a bump NW. 00z compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 lol these models are a joke by 9pm tomorrow's NAM it'll be a dusting for CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Angrysummons said: Lets don't confuse this for February 1910. I see this having a large 8-12 inch area in eastern Indiana/western half Ohio, which is impressive. But it isn't necessarily historical, which is when you get 3-4 threads. 1-2 threads will be more than enough probably in the end. Yeah I totally was going to get this confused with Feb of 1910, I was such a young spry kid back then. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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