StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The nam and the euro are in good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Are you home right now? Down in florida until mid march. Tbh I dont think this will be more than 3-5 in SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Really curious as to what things will look like in the morning once all this can be digested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Stevo6899 said: Down in florida until mid march. Tbh I dont think this will be more than 3-5 in SEMI. Nice man! Hope you are enjoying it down there ya prick haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Some of the CAMs are going nuts with 18-24" on or just offshore of IL, and that's through 48 hours. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Definitely liking the looks tonight for us Central Indiana guys. About time things improve for us closer to an event instead of fall apart 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Nice man! Hope you are enjoying it down there ya prick haha Yea been down here since nov 1st. The weathers been so nice. Its rained 3 days since then and above avg temps in the 80s everyday during this arctic intrusion the past 7 days up north. Ive been really rooting for y'all up there all winter. Hopefully this storm or the next one can deliver finally for ya. Good luck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, zinski1990 said: Definitely liking the looks tonight for us Central Indiana guys. About time things improve for us closer to an event instead of fall apart Things look better for now, but still time for things to fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Yea been down here since nov 1st. The weathers been so nice. Its rained 3 days since then and above avg temps in the 80s everyday during this arctic intrusion the past 7 days up north. Ive been really rooting for y'all up there all winter. Hopefully this storm or the next one can deliver finally for ya. Good luck. Thanks we are trying to reel this one in. Especially Josh and myself! Miss you on the chat on FB man! Be well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Some of the CAMs are going nuts with 18-24" on or just offshore of IL, and that's through 48 hours. Navy Pier buried? EDIT: WRF-ARW also painting a 24”+ spot just offshore in IL, with the lake plume still present at 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Some of the CAMs are going nuts with 18-24" on or just offshore of IL, and that's through 48 hours. NSSL WRF is almost 18" for downtown Chicago by 00z Tuesday and still ripping at the end of the run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Almost all 0z models so far highlighting a strong LE signal for western Lake Michigan. Not all heaviest amounts are onshore, though. So like all lake effect scenarios, a wait & see approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'll take the scraps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: NSSL WRF is almost 18" for downtown Chicago by 00z Tuesday and still ripping at the end of the run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Common theme amongst most of those models (including the HRRR and RAP) is for big amounts somewhere near the IL/IN shore... or both. Obviously I hope it's around here but depending on where it is, I may take a quick ride into it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Coldest airmass of the season settling in, had 50:1 ratios with the overnight/morning system. Not anticipating that type for this system by any means, but hopefully it can overperform for a lot of us snow starved, and by snow starved I'm speaking to depth of snow rather than season total. I'm just glad snow is in the forecast during the arctic surge, rooting for it to wring the atmosphere of every drop available 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z GFS with another bump NW. I'm starting to really like where I'm sitting. Hopefully the rest of the 0z runs trend well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 P -gfs is another big hit. Might be time to upgrade to warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: P -gfs is another big hit. Might be time to upgrade to warnings 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS-V16 continues 0z trend of strong lake-influenced NE IL high snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 11 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Ugh. I can't help but to be jealous of all those pretty red colors in Louisville and Cincinnati. Hopefully it will move NW a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Any way y’a slice it, this is a very impressive lake effect signal and arguably the most promising set up in years for delivery in the Chicago metro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: Any way y’a slice it, this is a very impressive lake effect signal and arguably the most promising set up in years for delivery in the Chicago metro Arlington Heights with an inch while parts of downtown Chicago end up with 18”+ would be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z Canadian showing a wide swath of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Final call 3” here. I managed about an inch from the system today and there’s light lake effect falling now. Hoping the grand finale will be the Thursday system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 So meanwhile, in Cincy, they're calling 9-12. I'm still not mega convinced, I'm in the 6-10 range, but even 6-10 with any wind would be a disaster out here. We may be in the bullseye, folks. Here's hoping we hit the jackpot! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm surprised these boards are not on fire right now. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: I'm surprised these boards are not on fire right now. Lol Cause it's not in Chicago. You all know it's true 5 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: I'm surprised these boards are not on fire right now. Lol It's because the southern part of the forum will get hit the hardest.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Cause it's not in Chicago. You all know it's true We need to get some more central and southern members on here lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Reference LES - LOT AFD update (click link for additional discussion on tomorrow night and Monday): Quote Finally, we did toss around the idea of needing a Winter Storm Watch for parts of the northeast Illinois shore for later Sunday evening through Monday with the signal for potentially significant lake effect snowfall increasing. LES parameters aren`t overly- stellar, but the potential for a nearly full-lake fetch along with lake-induced CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg with the 925-850 mb layer essentially completely within the dendritic growth zone lends some credibility to the 0.50+" QPF forecasts with the incoming hires guidance. SLRs in this type of setup would undoubtedly be high, likely 20-25:1, so you can probably see where I`m going here. Given the fickle nature of these setups, elected to defer any decision to the midnight shift, but do note that the threat for significant LES snowfall somewhere along the NE Illinois/NW Indiana shore exists into Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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