Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Right before I moved here. I took a quick look at that event the other day and Delta T's were similar. Not sure how the other parameters compare though. I know that 2014 event had 4-5" per hour rates around Griffith. Usually you're gonna need pretty good inversion heights to get rates like that. So I looked at 1/21/2014 in more detail. With the caveat that I can't get an archived forecast sounding from over the lake, just looking at a couple RAOBS and reanalysis maps at 850 mb and 700 mb, it seems like inversion heights back then would've been fairly similar or maybe just a little higher. That makes me even more confident that this band could really rip as a number of the other parameters line up similarly to the 2014 event. I think it's very likely to produce 1-2" per hour rates and wouldn't dismiss the possibility of some 3-4" per hour rates at peak organization. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 27 minutes ago, ohiocat5908 said: What's the 10:1 map look like?? 0 chance it'll be 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'll be more than happy if we can squeeze an inch out here on the northwest fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just be careful with the weatherbell kuchera maps... they are prone to overinflating. The exception may be in areas of lake enhancement since that is more of a mesoscale thing and if anything may underdo it there with such focused omega in the dgz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, dilly84 said: 0 chance it'll be 10:1 I know that. I just don't believe the ratios spit out at WB and want to compare more apples to apples to the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, ohiocat5908 said: I know that. I just don't believe the ratios spit out at WB and want to compare more apples to apples to the 12Z run. I'd guess 18:1 or 20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: This is starting to get real Are these 30:1+ ratios for SE Michigan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Quick math on the above is 30:1. Perhaps 20:1 is more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 It's just mind boggling to look at the Euro, and to almost discount 75% of the wester edge. Some Mets are probably gonna lose some sleep over that. To be 10-15" on the Euro, and 2-5 on the GFS......Normally I'd be ecstatic 36 hours out. If I’m not mistaken it’s not going to even get into the 20s for Toledo during this entire event. Should help with the ratios quite a bit. Blowing and drifting is going to be insane this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 it really matters how much of the column is in the dendritic growth zone and other factors like fracturing of snowflakes by the wind. Low temps don't always equal crazy high ratios. For a major synoptic storm like this it's pretty tough to average more than 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'd pay some cash to get the 00z HRRR to verify. About a foot of snow here and still ripping at 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I'd pay some cash to get the 00z HRRR to verify. About a foot of snow here and still ripping at 48 hrs. One day, one day, the HRRR LES signal will verify. I think Cook, Lake, and Porter counties are realistically in for 4-6” locally 8”, which is still solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Is it possible to have very low temps (under 20) and low ratios (under 10:1) ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Snownado said: Is it possible to have very low temps (under 20) and low ratios (under 10:1) ? No. Not to any knowledge I've ever seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: One day, one day, the HRRR LES signal will verify. I think Cook, Lake, and Porter counties are realistically in for 4-6” locally 8”, which is still solid. I'll take the over. Northern Porter got 6" today on parameters that were significantly worse than what we'll have coming up. The only way it fails imo would be if the band unexpectedly stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 0z NAM bumping northwest. IND looking good. Even the LAF. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Chicago WX said: 0z NAM bumping northwest. IND looking good. Even the LAF. Yeah just beat me. Throws precip significantly nw of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Chicago WX said: 0z NAM bumping northwest. IND looking good. Even the LAF. Low appears very close to same spot as 18z, looks more like it's just expanded the precip shield further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NAM jumps ship and heads NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I think we all were literally typing at the same time. Serious nerding out here. Most people are doing this on a Saturday night, Right?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_ind Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm not in the office and I'm not commenting on any decisions, but WPC also doesn't agree with these insane totals being thrown out there. Here is the 48 hour probability of >8" ending Tuesday at 12Z, <50% chance for IND's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Transfer seems to be a bit delayed as well. Low makes it further into southern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 LET'S GO!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, wxman_ind said: I'm not in the office and I'm not commenting on any decisions, but WPC also doesn't agree with these insane totals being thrown out there. Here is the 48 hour probability of >8" ending Tuesday at 12Z, <50% chance for IND's area. I just have a hard time believing there's only a 10% chance of 8" in Indy. Surely at least a 30% chance ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, Snownado said: Is it possible to have very low temps (under 20) and low ratios (under 10:1) ? Yes absolutely. We’ve had several events in the Midwest the past couple weeks with 10:1 ratios w temps in the single digits and teens. It depends on temps in the clouds and where the best upward motion is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 WOW AT THE NAM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yeah just beat me. Throws precip significantly nw of 18z. Let's start a trend here, starting with the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 15 over my county in ohio riding it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Lol @ nam having some of the higher totals in the area in nw ohio that has no advisories currently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Lol @ nam having some of the higher totals in the area in nw ohio that has no advisories currently. Are you home right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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