Harry Perry Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 GRR discounting the system totally this morning. (A general 1-2” is possible). This should be fun to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nam's/rap being generous with this wave sun night into Mon. Right now ILX isn't showing accumulating snow in my grids with only 50% pops. Definitely think that needs to be bumped up. Hrrr looks much drier but it also did abysmal with this current wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Sref holding with accumulating snow at ord and probably more eastern cook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 From a big picture, we really lucked out holding onto unseasonably warm lake temps late into the season before the pv settled in for this prolonged period of intermittent east flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 40 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Don't know if this will actually happen but if it were me, I'd go winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the afternoon package... would be mainly for the northern parts of the counties. There's more time to decide about what to do with Cook county. 15z rap has a gfs like orientation, cook might be in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Sref holding with accumulating snow at ord and probably more eastern cook 0.4” liquid equivalent at GYY would be good for 8-12”+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 55 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said: Wow!!! Nornally id say you gotta cut these kuchera totals in half atleast but its been awhile since SEMI has had this kinda arctic air in place with a decent storm and moisture coming in from the south, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Models seem to be overdoing the heights that push the storm east compared meso analysis. I wonder if the SE trend over the last 24 hours is really legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Still liking the possibility of double digits near the lake in the LOT cwa. RegionRat may be in a favored spot but really anybody from around downtown Chicago over to Porter county is in the game. Don't jinx me. You were pointing out that the forecast parameters are amongst the best we've seen this winter. I certainly hope the parameters materialize and then we'll see if the band settles over one spot for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 IWX has issued Winter Weather Advisory for most of their CWA, including there NW Ohio counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Also, NWS Cleveland is being tardy on their Winter Weather headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Well, if KIND is right this may end up being pretty much a non-event for Indy. I'm thinking we'll be lucky to see 3". Probably will be downgraded to an Advisory. 24 hrs ago it was 5-7, now its 3-5. 24 hours from now 1-3 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Something to keep in mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Interesting, CLE electing not to go with a WSW, even with CWA's both upstream and downstream going with watches. That tells me they think this is going to be an advisory level event. Seems pretty conservative to me. I have to think at least from I-71 east a watch would be justified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 28 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said: Don't jinx me. You were pointing out that the forecast parameters are amongst the best we've seen this winter. I certainly hope the parameters materialize and then we'll see if the band settles over one spot for awhile. I think northern Porter coming in with 6" last night and today is a good sign, because delta T this morning was not as high as it will be coming up. One knock on this setup is the relatively modest inversion heights, but most other parameters check the box and it should be ripping fatties with the good co-location of omega in the dgz. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 43 minutes ago, Gino27 said: Models seem to be overdoing the heights that push the storm east compared meso analysis. I wonder if the SE trend over the last 24 hours is really legit. Take a look right now. The high is already too strong on what models were showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, vpbob21 said: Interesting, CLE electing not to go with a WSW, even with CWA's both upstream and downstream going with watches. That tells me they think this is going to be an advisory level event. Seems pretty conservative to me. I have to think at least from I-71 east a watch would be justified. Or they could be one of the worst forecast offices in the country. Even Toledo TV mets frequently take shots at them and the "I-75 wall" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Angrysummons said: That isn't how it works. The high might be stronger, but so is upper level organization. That is whats causing the overrunning. Its coming nw, this seals it 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Isn't the tweet saying that the surface high is weaker than progged? Let's at least get the tweet correct, whether or not you think it will matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I think that tweet mentioned that the high pressure on the forecast models are higher than what the high pressure is currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Stebo said: Its coming nw, this seals it Sarcasm aside, do you see this coming back a little bit?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Funny, I used to dread the NW trend, now I'm begging for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The 18z NAM seems to move a bit back west from what I saw., I think. 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: Funny, I used to dread the NW trend, now I'm begging for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Don't know if this will actually happen but if it were me, I'd go winter storm watch for Lake/Porter with the afternoon package... would be mainly for the northern parts of the counties. There's more time to decide about what to do with Cook county. No watch with the afternoon package and no mention of entertaining one in the afd. Do not pass go, do not collect $200 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Deep digging upper level trough through the Central Plains states will gradually shift east and become negatively tilted slightly. This will result in surface low pressure over the delta region of the Mississippi River to move northeast toward West Virginia by Monday evening followed by a secondary stronger low pressure system. The first low will be in response to an upper level positive vorticity maximum sliding into the southern Great Lakes region and then the secondary low deepens as the upper trough becomes more negatively tilted. Typically, deepening low tracks through the Panhandle of West Virginia are ideal tracks for our forecast area as this places the best frontogenetical forcing over our area. Latest upper air model soundings suggest this forcing axis will remain just south of our area as the secondary low moves northeast through Virginia. Current thinking was to lower snow accumulations slightly due to the above comments and this is in line with the WPC guidance. Will not be issuing any headlines at this time due to the long duration snow accumulation event and will not exceed the 8 inches in 24 hour time frame. However, potential for total snow accumulations up to 9 inches possible in the east with gradually lowering amounts to 4 inch totals in the Toledo to Findlay areas. From NWS Cleveland. Not exactly sure I buy this explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Or they could be one of the worst forecast offices in the country. Even Toledo TV mets frequently take shots at them and the "I-75 wall" Yeah I thought about that but didn't want to be the one to say it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Almost seems like at times NWS Cleveland does not care about their NW Ohio counties at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 21 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Sarcasm aside, do you see this coming back a little bit?? Yes, everything has been north of what was forecast all year, today included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Almost seems like at times NWS Cleveland does not care about their NW Ohio counties at all. Definitely get the step kid feeling over here sometimes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts