February 14-16 Winter Storm

[Chicago Storm]

5 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

NW like NAM or NW like gfs? 

More like the GFS for Ohio.

[Cary67]

2 minutes ago, jaf316 said:

NW like NAM or NW like gfs? 

Ukie still looks good for Indiana and Ohio as does GFS. GEM looks good also.12Z NAM seems furthest NW with mixing in Ohio. Will see what Euro shows. Being on NW fringe not seeing major moves NW from globals.

[mimillman]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

I almost hate to see the nw shift, because it potentially leaves me in a little bit of a no mans land between the heaviest synoptic rates and the longest residence time of the lake band.  OTOH, synoptic snow is more reliable to count on and not so subject to micro shifts, so I feel like the floor on amounts is higher than it was yesterday. 

You’ll be fine. Bumping up my 4-6” call to 6-12” by the lake and 4-8” inland

[Chicago Storm]

Just now, mimillman said:

You’ll be fine. Bumping up my 4-6” call to 6-12” by the lake and 4-8” inland

low-ball near the lake.

[jaf316]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

More like the GFS for Ohio.

Thanks! 

[Dalfy]

2 hours ago, Air Traffic Control said:

I heard the cry for lurkers to appear...

Lurker from about an hour east of the St. Louis city, and seeing that bright pink bulls eye moving slowly to my location is... Well, as a person who grew up in an island with snow a foreign word [or the precursor to the apocalypse], the amount of hype I'm feeling is beyond ecstatic!!

We still have graupel from last week hanging around - radiant heat has turned the top layer to ice, but it's still majestic to see. About 2" or so - the air not being above freezing since the 5th or so ofFeb helps. Was also a brutal -1°F, too, this morning. I've never been so cold before in my life...

 

Our AFD from yesterday:

"As the main surface system passes south and east of the CWA overnight Sunday into Monday, the probability of accumulating snow ramps up mainly along and south of the I-70 corridor. Upper-level divergence from the trough and mid-level frontogenesis will couple with cold air to produce efficient snow-to-liquid ratios. By the time this system departs the CWA Monday afternoon and evening, snowfall will range from 2-5 inches along and south of the I-70 corridor. I continue to have confidence in these totals, as blended and ensemble guidance continue to focus the greatest snow potential and amounts along this corridor."

Learning moment: never have significant confidence in models >48 hours out, lol. 

[OhioWX]

7 minutes ago, Snownado said:

So did things stop trending NW ? Seems like Ohio is back in play again ?

I don't think Ohio has ever been out of play. Bullseye just appears to be shifting west. Significant snowfall still should be expected statewide.

[mimillman]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

low-ball near the lake.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 14” reports but that’ll be the exception more than the rule, hence the 6-12” call

[Cary67]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

low-ball near the lake.

Gradient from my area to downtown could be remarkable.

[Thundersnow12]

This upper level jet configuration should help get precip pretty far NW of the low 

[Sciascia]

Dumb question(s): Is ORD looking to be too far NW to get in on the LES? If it is, and ORD is the standard for reporting “Chicago” snow, does the downtown snow get counted separately?

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see some 14” reports but that’ll be the exception more than the rule, hence the 6-12” call

low-ball still.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

low-ball near the lake.

Somebody will pull 18" imo as long as the band doesn't pull some shenanigans and largely go offshore.

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Is ORD looking to be too far NW to get in on the LES? If it is, and ORD is the standard for reporting “Chicago” snow, does the metro snow get “counted” separately?

Given the NW shift, ORD is now much more in the game for significant lake effect/enhancement.

If ORD were to miss out on the LE, it means noting to the official Chicago snowfall total then.

[mimillman]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

Given the NW shift, ORD is now much more in the game for significant lake effect/enhancement.

If ORD were to miss out on the LE, it means noting to the official Chicago snowfall then.

Pet peeve

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, mimillman said:

Pet peeve

Yeah, but think of the times that ORD cashes in and downtown gets screwed.

[Malacka11]

Calling it now Aurora is going to steal the LES where there's a will there's a way

[Cary67]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, but think of the times that ORD cashes in and downtown gets screwed.

Might be McHenrySnow and myself feeling that. Not that I've invested in this one much

[Greenwald]

30 minutes ago, Snownado said:

Good grief a better system on Thursday ? So they must be thinking at least 10" for Thurs ?

GFS v16 shows us cashing in on 12 inches with this first system and then ramps the total up to 18 by 00z Sat. So roughly 6 inches for the Thursday deal but still a long way out. It almost seems to follow the same track, snow amounts increase pretty linearly compared to the Monday system.

[JustMePatrick]

CLE morning discussion:

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A pair of snow events are targeting the area for the short term
forecast period, bringing widespread, significant snow
accumulations from early Monday morning to Tuesday afternoon.
A surface trough will enter the region from the southeast on
Sunday night and nudge north into the Ohio Valley by Monday
morning. This trough will be supported by the right entrance
region of an upper level jet, isentropic lift, and moisture
advecting north from the Gulf of Mexico. This feature will
bring the first round of snow to the forecast area beginning
early Monday morning and extending through early afternoon.
Trends with this portion of the snow event are up and have 1 to
3 inches of snow west and 2 to 4 inches of snow east, all of
which will have an impact on the Monday morning commute. Now
that we are entering the window for some higher resolution data,
there are signals that this total could be bumped up a bit
higher, especially west over NW Ohio. This will need to be
something to watch for in future forecasts.

In previous forecast editions, it was advertised that there
would be a break in the snow on Monday afternoon and evening
before the next round and trend this morning show that the
timing of this break is shrinking as the first trough seems to
linger. At this point, still expecting light snow during this
break period with new accumulations up to an inch. The main show
will be on Monday night into Tuesday as a shortwave trough over
the south central CONUS will support the development of low
pressure over the northern Gulf coast. This low will move
northeast along the East Coast states through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the forecast area will be on the back side of this
system and cold, so all snow is expected. As the low passes by,
a TROWAL (trough of warm air aloft) will set up across the area,
centered at roughly 700 mb, and lower level frontogenesis will
occur over the area, further forcing snow development. Meanwhile,
a new upper level jet enters from the southwest and the area
will be squarely in the left exit region on Monday night,
giving even more support for snowfall development. So what does
this mean? Widespread heavy snowfall is expected to develop
over portions of northern Ohio and NW PA with 4 to 8 inches of
additional snow expected by Tuesday morning. However, with all
of these features aligning, there is the potential for some
mesobanding across the area and snowfall amounts may be higher
than currently forecasted. This will need to be monitored going
forward. In addition, some recent short term guidance members,
most notably the NAM, have this heavier swath of snow further
west than the current forecast and this trend will also need to
be monitored.

This morning, we have decided to hoist a Winter Storm Warning
for most of our forecast area with a Winter Weather Advisory
for portions of Northwest Ohio. This event is tricky with the
exact messaging with multiple rounds of snow in a short window with
a snowfall duration of 27-30 hours in most areas. With snow
totals of 8 or more inches in that time span, the impacts of
snow will be felt across the region and merits issuing a warning
headline. In addition, there is potential for totals in
isolated areas to be higher (a foot for some), whereas the floor
of snow potential is still 5 to 6 inches in warning area, which
isn`t nothing. In addition to snow impacts, temperatures will
be cold through the event and with even a 10 mph wind, wind
chills in the single digits to near zero are possible.

The system departs to the east on Tuesday and while the heavy
snow will be quick to leave, residual moisture will linger
across the area and light snow showers are possible through
Tuesday with light accumulations. Tuesday night should be mostly
dry. Temperatures on Tuesday appear to be the coldest in
sometime with widespread single digits with breaks in the clouds
and a fresh snow pack to allow for temperatures to plummet.

[Hoosier]

Not sure what to call here, so maybe I won't make one   Feel like about an equal case could be made for 6-8" or 12".  

[Chambana]

Local met still calling 2-4” ummmm? Maybe he’s already hit the IPAs this morning. I tweeted at him and he never responded. 
 

final call for Champaign: 8.7”

[Thundersnow12]

12 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, but think of the times that ORD cashes in and downtown gets screwed.

Nov 2015 storm a perfect example 

[WeatherMonger]

26 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

 

Yeah I have no clue what ILX is looking at. Not only should there be an advisory area wide but they could honestly about bring warnings up to the IL River. ILX loves to do everything last second but this is pretty ridiculous based on current model trends. Looks like this system could give me a bigger snow than the 2nd system now. 

Hourly grid has me at 3" off of .16" QPF

 

[mimillman]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, but think of the times that ORD cashes in and downtown gets screwed.

Pet peeve #2

[mimillman]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Not sure what to call here, so maybe I won't make one   Feel like about an equal case could be made for 6-8" or 12".  

6-12” 

[michaelmantis]

Bit too far west in N IL for this but always interesting to see things come together on the East side of Lake Michigan for lake effect, doesn't happen often.

Interested to see the snow maps once this thing is over, going to be some killer cutoffs. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Going weenie and thinking 3-4” here. Obviously banking on the NW trend 

[Cary67]

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Going weenie and thinking 3-4” here. Obviously banking on the NW trend 

Will go 1-2" unless more NW shifts occur

[Chicago Storm]

12z Euro with a bump back SE from 6z run.

Ends up very similar to 0z run, which had the initial bump NW.