vpbob21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18" right on top of my location? Easy toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 So meanwhile, in Cincy, the threat grows...high confidence for 6+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, vpbob21 said: 18" right on top of my location? Easy toss. I see myself dead center of the 15+ band. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 lake gonna have to deliver, monday evening looks ok for cook, esp se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 It's new. It's fresh. It's probably wrong, but... 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: It's new. It's fresh. It's probably wrong, but... it and the 6z NAM were both pretty good looking edit: i see that whole run was a bit a delayed but not denied special lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: it and the 6z NAM were both pretty good looking edit: i see that whole run was a bit a delayed but not denied special lol Mchenry gonna go off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 yeah bad nw/se synoptic gradient enhanced by missing the lake effect hopefully we get some unforeseen favorable trends with the 12z guidance now that we have full sampling of pac sw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 This is some map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 yeah bad nw/se synoptic gradient enhanced by missing the lake effect hopefully we get some unforeseen favorable trends with the 12z guidance now that we have full sampling of pac swzzzzz. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Not as confident about my area as yesterday. Too much spread in the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, StormfanaticInd said: Not as confident about my area as yesterday. Too much spread in the ensembles Let's just go with the GFS v16 and Euro. F the op gfs I swear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: zzzzz . for you that's a lock, I have a call to verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Basically the Euro vs. the GFS more the mid forum folk......Normally I'd be be giddy for what the Euro is showing, but things have been strange lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnut1970 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9z plumes dropped again. This just isn’t SE michigan’s winter. The trend of the model the last 34 hours isn’t been good. I’m ready for spring because this cold and no big storm is miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 nam probably gonna bury me at 12z just to go andit'sgone.gif by 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Wxnut1970 said: 9z plumes dropped again. This just isn’t SE michigan’s winter. The trend of the model the last 34 hours isn’t been good. I’m ready for spring because this cold and no big storm is miserable. Kokomo (north central Indianas) dropped 2" from near 7" into the 4" with the bulk clustered in the 2-3" range. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Ratios will really help us here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 ILN AFD: However, some important differences remain in low placement and intensity. The 00Z GFS is running faster and a bit further south while the ECMWF is slower, stronger, and further north. Due to these differences, have continued a rather broad band of 4-8 inches area wide. Certainly there is a good possibility local areas will see nearly a foot of snow with higher drifts based on QPF, snow ratios, duration of the event, and wind fields. In addition, as the low reaches the vicinity of the central Appalachians, some forecast soundings -- particularly the 00Z GFS -- show a deep saturated layer centered in the DGZ. Will closely monitor track and strength of the low, as these will play a critical role in a detailed accumulation forecast leading up to the event. Central Ohio hasn't had a foot from a single storm in 13 years. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I am always very leery of ratios however I have to say some of the kuchera maps for this event are crazy High ratio snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said: This is some map It's not often you see the entire state of OK under a Winter Storm Warning, and the entire states of TX/OK/AR under winter weather headlines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, Wxnut1970 said: 9z plumes dropped again. This just isn’t SE michigan’s winter. The trend of the model the last 34 hours isn’t been good. I’m ready for spring because this cold and no big storm is miserable. Plumes are 10:1ratio I would not worry about them. Really hoping one of these 2 events dumps a good amount. If not at least we have a good snowpack, It seems we should get at least something from both of them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Powerball said: It's not often you see the entire state of OK under a Winter Storm Warning, and the entire states of TX/OK/AR under winter weather headlines. My favorite line was in the Dallas Winter storm warning, drifts may exceed 7" lol. I don't think I've ever seen something like that in a warning. Definitely an unprecedented event for that area 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12Z NAM trajectories are an improvement for those a bit west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 i'll take one nest please 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: i'll take one nest please got it posted before i could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 STL's AFD Quote .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 419 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 The screaming message from last night has not changed 24 hours later with bitterly cold air/record temperatures, dangerously cold wind chills, and accumulating snowfall the highlights into next week. Record low max temperatures Sunday into Monday still look like a slam dunk, however I have less confidence in record low temperatures due to persistent cloud cover. Still generally all but southeast MO and far southwest IL will have mins below zero through Monday and the entire CWA may have mins below zero on Tuesday morning. The increasingly active upper air pattern starting later this weekend and continuing into next week will bring accumulating snowfall to the region first Sunday into Monday. This first event will come in two waves. On Sunday the consensus is the first wave will be focused from central MO into west central IL associated with a weak impulse in the southwest flow aloft and attendant mid level frontogenetic forcing. Snowfall amounts with this wave generally look light, around an inch or less. The more substantial snowfall will occur with the second wave centered on Sunday night and Monday. The best focus for this snowfall will centered along and south of I- 70 associated with increasing low-mid level frontogenetic forcing and increasing large scale forcing occurring ahead of a migrating upper trof. Until late Monday the models lack a coherent 850 mb low which could offer even greater snowfall potential. However this combination of persistent frontogenetical forcing and large scale support with the trof, and very cold temperatures yielding high snow ratios, should still produce a solid measurable snowfall of 2-5 inches across much of the CWA with the highest amounts along and south of I-70 in the 4-5 inch range. The NBM and GEFS exceedance probabilities support this region for the highest snowfalls with good support for 4+ inches. If the amounts stay in these ranges then this would be an advisory level event, and those headlines would likely becoming later today. We are still eyeing another system in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. There are some rather significant differences in the models with regards to the depth and speed of this next migratory upper trof, with some solutions indicating possibly a light snow and others a rather classic winter storm. Like last night, confidence in the specifics remains low. The very cold, well below normal temperatures will continue mid-late week. Glass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The SE joggle on the majority of models has been a bit concerning. Still not worried because this should drop a fairly wide swath of snow, so being outside the jackpot won't be a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Gino27 said: ILN AFD: However, some important differences remain in low placement and intensity. The 00Z GFS is running faster and a bit further south while the ECMWF is slower, stronger, and further north. Due to these differences, have continued a rather broad band of 4-8 inches area wide. Certainly there is a good possibility local areas will see nearly a foot of snow with higher drifts based on QPF, snow ratios, duration of the event, and wind fields. In addition, as the low reaches the vicinity of the central Appalachians, some forecast soundings -- particularly the 00Z GFS -- show a deep saturated layer centered in the DGZ. Will closely monitor track and strength of the low, as these will play a critical role in a detailed accumulation forecast leading up to the event. Central Ohio hasn't had a foot from a single storm in 13 years. Wow. March 2008 was such a great, long-duration event. However, it's not exactly been 13 years for all of Central Ohio. February 5-6, 2010 saw 12"-15" for some areas along and north of I-70, and February 15-16, 2010 hit a foot in a few spots. Double-digit snowfalls are exceedingly rare in Central Ohio, though. If we go by single-day totals, there have only been 3 since 1884. 2-day events, you only have 10. So this event could be historic from that perspective. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, jbcmh81 said: March 2008 was such a great, long-duration event. However, it's not exactly been 13 years for all of Central Ohio. February 5-6, 2010 saw 12"-15" for some areas along and north of I-70, and February 15-16, 2010 hit a foot in a few spots. Double-digit snowfalls are exceedingly rare in Central Ohio, though. If we go by single-day totals, there have only been 3 since 1884. 2-day events, you only have 10. So this event could be historic from that perspective. How could I forget Feb 2010! Ugh what storms those two were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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