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2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold


WestTennWX
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9 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

Not in my lifetime have I saw a pattern like this and the Smokies get nothing.  Once in a lifetime pattern..If the pattern shifted west a bit, the Smokies would be measuring in feet..Many feet

What was it, about a week ago, or 10 days or so? Forecasters then were screaming that a huge snow system would form up and barrel out of Arkansas across Tennessee. Totals in my county on the AL border were estimated as high as 5 inches. I was a skeptic then but I know that Arkansas is the source of many bad storms for Tennessee. In the end, it went north of us and only a corner of NW TN got some. This system has some of the same potential tracking characteristics, but this time the NW half of TN could be affected. This whole 15-day period has been a minefield for accurate forecasting, for sure. Waiting around on 2/19 - pivot day! 

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Light Snow this morning in Hardeman county.  Cars and roofs are all white with a light glaze of snow and you can see it on the grass/ground in spots vaguely.  Cold air is really pulling any and all moisture out of the atmosphere the past 2 days.  Nothing of any significant accumulation but it’s cool to see such little snow stick so well to surfaces due to the frigid air in place 

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Euro 6z is coming in colder for Memphis.By my calculations looking at other indices it would be around a tenth of a inch IP with over 10" snow,very good ratios.this is the Valentines event

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            06Z FEB13
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 06Z 13-FEB                  22.7    10.9    03008                     71    
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  22.7    20.8    20.8    10.4    36009                     58    
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  29.9    20.2    30.2    10.2    35009   0.00    0.00      94    
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  32.3    28.9    28.8    10.3    01009   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  28.8    23.3    23.2     7.5    02010   0.00    0.00      89    
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  23.2    18.7    18.7     6.6    02011   0.00    0.00      84    
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  29.7    18.1    30.0     7.2    02011   0.00    0.00      49    
MON 00Z 15-FEB  31.9    27.0    27.0     8.5    01010   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 15-FEB  27.0    20.4    20.4    14.9    01011   0.09    0.01     100    
MON 12Z 15-FEB  20.3    15.9    15.8     7.3    36011   0.01    0.01     100    
MON 18Z 15-FEB  15.8    14.3    14.5     6.4    01010   0.13    0.13     100    
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  14.6    13.2    13.4     9.5    35009   0.47    0.47     100    
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  13.9    13.3    13.3     9.4    34009   0.07    0.07      99    
TUE 12Z 16-FEB  13.4     9.9     9.8     5.6    32006   0.00    0.00      81    
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  15.9     9.4    16.1     7.6    34004   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 00Z 17-FEB  19.0    13.1    13.1     8.0    33004   0.00    0.00      97  
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Hope everyone is ok.  Been a bad week for car pileups due to winter weather 

Some of the footage I seen out of Dallas was horrific. The 18 wheeler hitting that white truck doing 60 MPH throwing it 20 feet in the air was mind blowing. The way that interstate was made those people had no chance. That was a death trap.


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1 minute ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro 6z is coming in colder for Memphis.By my calculations looking at other indices it would be around a tenth of a inch IP with over 10" snow,very good ratios.this is the Valentines event

 


ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            06Z FEB13
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 06Z 13-FEB                  22.7    10.9    03008                     71    
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  22.7    20.8    20.8    10.4    36009                     58    
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  29.9    20.2    30.2    10.2    35009   0.00    0.00      94    
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  32.3    28.9    28.8    10.3    01009   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  28.8    23.3    23.2     7.5    02010   0.00    0.00      89    
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  23.2    18.7    18.7     6.6    02011   0.00    0.00      84    
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  29.7    18.1    30.0     7.2    02011   0.00    0.00      49    
MON 00Z 15-FEB  31.9    27.0    27.0     8.5    01010   0.01    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 15-FEB  27.0    20.4    20.4    14.9    01011   0.09    0.01     100    
MON 12Z 15-FEB  20.3    15.9    15.8     7.3    36011   0.01    0.01     100    
MON 18Z 15-FEB  15.8    14.3    14.5     6.4    01010   0.13    0.13     100    
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  14.6    13.2    13.4     9.5    35009   0.47    0.47     100    
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  13.9    13.3    13.3     9.4    34009   0.07    0.07      99    
TUE 12Z 16-FEB  13.4     9.9     9.8     5.6    32006   0.00    0.00      81    
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  15.9     9.4    16.1     7.6    34004   0.00    0.00       0    
WED 00Z 17-FEB  19.0    13.1    13.1     8.0    33004   0.00    0.00      97  

Awesome, thanks for the breakdown Jax.  That layer of ice could make things extra sketchy on the roads.  Hope you and the family are doing well!

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2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


Some of the footage I seen out of Dallas was horrific. The 18 wheeler hitting that white truck doing 60 MPH throwing it 20 feet in the air was mind blowing. The way that interstate was made those people had no chance. That was a death trap.


.

 Yeah that is horrific, feel bad for all those involved.  Those accidents with Big Rigs rarely end well, I’ve had my CDL 3 months now and I’ve had to watch some gut wrenching videos in my classes/training.  

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6 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

U guys get some ice accumulation last night?

I had to take my son to Knoxville for a gymnastics meet,he coaches at his gym now,we stayed in Maryvillle overnight so i dont know.My wife is going to pick him up,she has to work at Blount Memorial today so it worked out well

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Just now, jaxjagman said:

I had to take my son to Knoxville for a gymnastics meet,he coaches at his gym now,we stayed in Maryvillle overnight so i dont know.My wife is going to pick him up,she has to work at Blount Memorial today so it worked out well

   Gotcha.  Glad to hear your son is still doing great things with his gymnastics!  That’s awesome that he’s coaching, takes a special person to be able to coach imo.  

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Just now, AMZ8990 said:

   Gotcha.  Glad to hear your son is still doing great things with his gymnastics!  That’s awesome that he’s coaching, takes a special person to be able to coach imo.  

Thanks,he really enjoys it.He is doing virtual college right now,but they pay him real good money also..lol

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8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Yes,its not as cold

Actually, at the surface it’s very cold, currently 20 and snowing in Memphis, further south where I am, 27, with ice in all the ditches around.  We even had snow grains here yesterday.  That said, with that much liquid, I’m hoping the models are off as they have been all week here.  Not looking forward to any power outages.

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