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2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold


WestTennWX
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JKL putting snow on the board now 2-4"

 

That's a change, also the .50 of ice with the snow, sounds well...not ideal for maintaining power.

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1050 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-080-084>086-108-111-114-116-131500-
/O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0011.210213T0350Z-210213T1500Z/
/O.CON.KJKL.WS.A.0002.210215T0000Z-210216T1800Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Jackson-
Laurel-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Wolfe-Lee-Owsley-Clay-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, McKee, Annville, London, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Campton,
Beattyville, Booneville, and Manchester
1050 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, areas of freezing
  drizzle and higher elevation freezing fog will coat untreated
  surfaces with a light glaze of ice. For the Winter Storm Watch,
  heavy mixed precipitation is possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an
  inch will be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast
  Kentucky.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST
  Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening
  through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...For the Winter Weather Advisory, untreated sidewalks,
  roads, and bridges could become slick. For the Winter Storm
  Watch, expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice.
  Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$


 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
516 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
516 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

...Freezing Drizzle Is Possible Late Tonight Into Saturday
Night...

Drizzle and freezing drizzle are expected to develop northwestward
out of Tennessee and Virginia tonight and Saturday and effect
portions of eastern and south central Kentucky. Temperatures will
determine whether or not the drizzle freezes as it falls.
Subfreezing readings are expected in most places tonight into
Saturday morning, but are forecast to rise just above freezing in
most places during the day on Saturday, before falling back below
freezing in most places on Saturday night as precipitation tapers
off. Precipitation amounts should be very light, but could be
enough to create slick conditions on untreated surfaces.

$$

HAL
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4 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

JKL putting snow on the board now 2-4"

 

That's a change, also the .50 of ice with the snow, sounds well...not ideal for maintaining power.

 

 

Winter Weather Advisory


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1050 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-080-084>086-108-111-114-116-131500-
/O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0011.210213T0350Z-210213T1500Z/
/O.CON.KJKL.WS.A.0002.210215T0000Z-210216T1800Z/
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Jackson-
Laurel-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Wolfe-Lee-Owsley-Clay-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, McKee, Annville, London, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Campton,
Beattyville, Booneville, and Manchester
1050 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, areas of freezing
  drizzle and higher elevation freezing fog will coat untreated
  surfaces with a light glaze of ice. For the Winter Storm Watch,
  heavy mixed precipitation is possible. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an
  inch will be possible.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast
  Kentucky.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST
  Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening
  through Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...For the Winter Weather Advisory, untreated sidewalks,
  roads, and bridges could become slick. For the Winter Storm
  Watch, expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice.
  Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

&&

$$


 

Special Weather Statement


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson KY
516 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131000-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville,
Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna,
Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee,
Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns,
Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro,
Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty,
Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright,
Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard,
Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run,
Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson
516 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021

...Freezing Drizzle Is Possible Late Tonight Into Saturday
Night...

Drizzle and freezing drizzle are expected to develop northwestward
out of Tennessee and Virginia tonight and Saturday and effect
portions of eastern and south central Kentucky. Temperatures will
determine whether or not the drizzle freezes as it falls.
Subfreezing readings are expected in most places tonight into
Saturday morning, but are forecast to rise just above freezing in
most places during the day on Saturday, before falling back below
freezing in most places on Saturday night as precipitation tapers
off. Precipitation amounts should be very light, but could be
enough to create slick conditions on untreated surfaces.

$$

HAL

I see the interstate is closed in your area or just south of you for black ice. 

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1 hour ago, Wintersnow888 said:

Yep , I have 24 currently and ditto on the daytime temp......we haven't been getting accurate highs on the forecast at all lately. Also have a coating of ice on everything and was wondering if freezing fog could partially be the culprit? It was really foggy all evening

Yeah that's the reason and due to a slight mist. Are you in the Cumberland Cove area?

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looks like Nashville has now pulled the trigger.  I think it was expected.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Nashville TN
314 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

TNZ008>011-027>034-058>066-075-077>080-093>095-131800-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0002.210215T0000Z-210216T1200Z/
/O.CON.KOHX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210213T1600Z/
Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-Marshall-
Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-Warren-
Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
Including the cities of Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville,
Lafayette, Celina, Byrdstown, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet,
Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro,
Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Hohenwald, Franklin,
Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne,
Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma,
Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton,
Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski
314 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
MONDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, freezing drizzle,
  freezing fog, and a few patches of light freeing rain.
  Additional ice accumulations of a light glaze. For the Winter
  Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  two tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Middle Tennessee.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM CST this
  morning. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening
  through late Monday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although confidence is high that
  significant winter weather will impact the area Sunday night
  through Monday night, the details including exact snow and ice
  amounts are subject to change. Please check back for updates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$


 

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MRX will probably issue a winter storm watch for Morgan, Scott, Campbell and Claiborne in the afternoon shift. 

They've abandoned snow here now, freezing rain and sleet with a low of 25 now for my area. Most modeling suggests more than .5 but they just say .1 to .2 in their forecast. Worst of all it says light rain. Heavy rain washes away a little. 

Should make for skating rink level travel. Especially if mixed with sleet. 

 

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John I value your insight.  Do you think this has a chance to trickle down to the great valley floor?  I know it is a hard call but what do you think the chances are? Not that I want that at all. The tempatures continue to be 5 or so degrees colder than forecast on a consistent basis. it seems like a possibility to me..

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4 hours ago, Shocker0 said:

Yeah that's the reason and due to a slight mist. Are you in the Cumberland Cove area?

Drove up to Cincy from Knoxville yesterday. From about Campbell Co past Barea KY was freezing fog and trees and ground with ice blanket. Between Lexington and Cincy it was about 0.1-0.2 in of ice in areas with around 4 to 5 in of snow in most areas. All measurements based on the eye test so definitely just estimates. Came up past lexington around 2p and most of the interstate had been cleared and safe to travel.

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7 minutes ago, xAllVolsx said:

Drove up to Cincy from Knoxville yesterday. From about Campbell Co past Barea KY was freezing fog and trees and ground with ice blanket. Between Lexington and Cincy it was about 0.1-0.2 in of ice in areas with around 4 to 5 in of snow in most areas. All measurements based on the eye test so definitely just estimates. Came up past lexington around 2p and most of the interstate had been cleared and safe to travel.

75 is bad in Whitley and Campbell this morning if you're coming back. 

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1 hour ago, bearman said:

John I value your insight.  Do you think this has a chance to trickle down to the great valley floor?  I know it is a hard call but what do you think the chances are? Not that I want that at all. The tempatures continue to be 5 or so degrees colder than forecast on a consistent basis. it seems like a possibility to me..

It looks like it has its best shot on Monday night. The further west and north you are the more likely it does.  Anderson, and Roane have the best shot. Deep west Knoxville has better odds than east Knoxville too. 

It's crazy how the precip overnight has oriented just below the subfreezing airmass. It been a long miserable night down there it looks like. 33-36 and rain is my most disliked winter weather. 

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Euro has some better CAA for Memphis,some nice snow showing now

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            00Z FEB13
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 00Z 13-FEB  -3.8     1.4     128    9299    04006                           
SAT 06Z 13-FEB  -4.8     2.6     128    9689    02010                           
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -5.3     1.1     128    8705    00010           0.00            
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  -0.3    -0.5     128    8074    35010           0.00            
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  -1.5    -1.0     128    9031    01009           0.00            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -4.6    -0.5     128    8688    02010           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -7.4     0.5     127    8485    02010           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -0.3     1.1     128    8251    02011           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -1.0     2.2     129    8213    01011           0.00            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -5.8    -1.3     127    7824    00011           0.08            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -8.0    -1.4     127    7920    36012           0.01            
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -9.1    -2.5     126       0    35009           0.22            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB -10.1    -3.2     126       0    35011           0.60            
TUE 06Z 16-FEB -10.1    -6.2     125       0    33010           0.10            
TUE 12Z 16-FEB -14.5    -9.2     124       0    32005           0.00            
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -9.8    -6.8     125       0    34004           0.00            
WED 00Z 17-FEB -10.5    -4.6     126       0    34005           0.00            
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -9.8    -1.6     127       0    07005           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -8.6    -2.4     127       0    04005           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB  -4.5    -1.2     128       0    04007           0.01            
THU 00Z 18-FEB  -3.9    -1.6     128       0    03006           0.10            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -4.5    -2.0     128       0    00008           0.13            
THU 12Z 18-FEB  -5.7    -3.4     127       0    35009           0.00            
THU 18Z 18-FEB  -3.5    -6.7     127       0    34008           0.00            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB  -7.8    -7.0     127       0    32006           0.00            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB -12.6    -7.7     127       0    30007           0.00            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB -11.6    -5.2     127       0    03002           0.00            
FRI 18Z 19-FEB  -0.1    -3.8     128      79    25002           0.00            
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -1.0    -1.3     130    3420    21004           0.00            
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -4.2    -0.7     131    4145    17006           0.00            
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  -3.7    -1.2     130    3619    18008           0.00            
SAT 18Z 20-FEB   3.6     1.7     130    6974    23007           0.00            
SUN 00Z 21-FEB   0.7     4.1     132    6547    18005           0.00            
SUN 06Z 21-FEB  -2.7     3.9     133    8729    15004           0.00            
SUN 12Z 21-FEB  -4.1     3.7     133    7011    13006           0.00            
SUN 18Z 21-FEB   9.4     2.9     134    8516    19008           0.00            
MON 00Z 22-FEB   8.2     4.6     134    8660    22009           0.02            
MON 06Z 22-FEB   3.4     4.1     133    8152    27006           0.00            
MON 12Z 22-FEB  -1.6     4.4     133    7458    04003           0.00            
MON 18Z 22-FEB  10.8     4.3     133    8233    16004           0.00            
TUE 00Z 23-FEB   8.1     4.3     134    7778    19005           0.00         
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Uncertainty for Nashville

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            00Z FEB13
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 00Z 13-FEB  -1.8     1.6     128    9156    36006                           
SAT 06Z 13-FEB  -2.3     1.5     129    9165    00006                           
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -2.5     2.1     129    8385    35006           0.00            
SAT 18Z 13-FEB   2.6     1.6     129    8140    35006           0.00            
SUN 00Z 14-FEB   0.5    -1.2     129    8732    35007           0.00            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -3.5     0.6     128    8889    36007           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -4.7     0.9     128    8314    01007           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB   2.8     0.9     129    8174    01007           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB   1.4    -0.6     129    6526    00006           0.00            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -1.0     0.9     129    7634    35007           0.02            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -3.1     1.9     129    7576    02007           0.12            
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -2.3     1.4     129    8837    01007           0.01            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -3.9     0.6     129    5081    36008           0.35            
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  -4.5     0.3     128    3966    32009           0.43            
TUE 12Z 16-FEB  -8.4    -5.5     126       0    29006           0.12            
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -4.7    -7.1     126       0    30005           0.00            
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -5.4    -7.6     127       0    33004           0.00            
WED 06Z 17-FEB -10.3    -2.8     127    2929    04004           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -8.4    -1.1     127    4316    03003           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB  -1.2     0.4     129    5100    02004           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB  -2.1     0.1     130    4488    02005           0.00            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -3.2    -0.5     130    2796    00004           0.29            
THU 12Z 18-FEB  -3.2    -1.0     129    2337    33006           0.08            
THU 18Z 18-FEB  -2.8    -2.1     128       0    32007           0.03            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB  -3.3    -7.0     127       0    32006           0.00            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB  -6.1    -8.9     126       0    32005           0.00            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB -12.0    -8.8     125       0    32004           0.00            
FRI 18Z 19-FEB  -2.5    -6.6     127       0    29001           0.00            
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -4.3    -5.3     129     250    14004           0.00        
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The Euro OP seems to be wanting to sharpen and dig the energy more, over the N Gulf. I tried to make a gif, but t is hard to get the time stamps synced because teh 6z/18z have different set of hours than the 0/12z runs. 

Here's an example though:

More open, neutrally tilted wave:

ii5Hjly.png 

deeper, sharper, negatively tilted wave:

EXA2FfR.png

 

the deeper that digs and the more negatively it can tilt, especially if it does it right along the MS river, the better for us all. 

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59 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z Euro:

3hKxitU.png

Hi,  the local NWS for my area, Greenville MS in NW MS states only up to 2 inches of snow on top of sleet and freezing rain which I don’t want.  However they have been wrong all week with this air.  We haven’t been above freezing since Wednesday night I believe.  According to the data above we are in a max zone.  Do you think they are underestimating the CAA? The last time we had anything over 3 inches was many years ago, early 00s..  Just wondering!

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24 minutes ago, david30 said:

Do you think they are underestimating the CAA? The last time we had anything over 3 inches was many years ago, early 00s..  Just wondering!

Honestly I know so little about your microclimates there, I'm not sure. It looks like y'all are right on the Mississippi, and I know that being that close to a river can occasionally cause issues with surface temps here in the TN valley. That being said the 6z NAM and RGEM and obviously the 6z Euro put you just on the N. side of the mix/ freezing rain line, which should max out accums overhead. 

That's a stout warm nose on the NAM though and ant variation of that layer of above freezing air could change the precip quickly for you:

yyt63G5.png

 

the RGEM has a humongo DGZ, but still has a warm nose, though not enough to get freezing rain:

RHosKBn.png

 

 

Honestly, if I were making a forecast, I would do what they are doing there. Most of us on these boards want the max accumulation and to see big snowflakes. That's the bottom line for us. Professional forecasters though are more concerned with communicating hazards and impacts to individuals in their communities, so going with a Winter Storm Watch, and a mixed bag, given current model output is probably a good bet. Freezing rain and sleet can be more impactful for travel than snow, so erring on the side of "worst case scenario" (i.e. major ice storm, is probably the way to go. That way if it does turn out to be more snowfall, they can adjust and people are still aware. TBH even a glaze of ice on roads is worse than 6 - 8" of snow, IMO, so the more people you can keep off the roads during the event, the better. 

 

Another consideration, is that you are on the N. fringe of the Jackson, MS NWS area. I know John has noticed that sometimes plateau fringe areas here don't seem to get as much attention, but in our case that could be a decision based on population and Greenville MS looks like a decently sized town. I just don't know how that works out usually down there. Sometimes you can see a glaring difference between forecast offices by looking at the NWS NDFD snow maps, but in this case, the area between Jackson and Memphis looks pretty smooth, no big jumps as you go from one NWS area to another:

TnFPnfQ.png

 

6z NWS NMB (National Model Blend, which I think a NWS met mentioned on twitter still uses an old version of the Euro) looks similar:

SRpFADX.png

If it were me, and I were forecasting I'd say the following:

3-6 snow, additional ice and sleet. Bottom line, travel will become hazardous and life threatening for you and other people on the road, don't go out unless you have to and monitor the latest conditions. 

 

 

 

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I agree with @david30 that it does appear it will be warmer along the storm frontal boundary than earlier forecasts. The track is also firming up as more northerly.

Currently in Lincoln County, TN, 7 miles above the AL line: 29 degrees, wind NNE at 2-3. 0" precip overnight, barometer 29.92 inHg. Potential high 37.

I had to sit down and slide myself off the edge of my porch this morning to get out of the house. :D The culprit: freezing fog, which is still present but not dense. Salt has been duly applied and the cows will just have to wait a few hours and a few degrees before they get hay. 

There's a positive to the weather situation that the cold-warm boundary this morning remains between Montevallo, AL, (38) and Montgomery, AL, (47). It has not moved farther south since it slid about 100 miles south overnight Wednesday to Thursday. That bodes well for better outcomes here along the AL state line in Giles, Lincoln and Franklin counties of TN.

My farm remains on the edge of the "maybe" zone, so forecasts continue to vary pretty widely by source – between, as a TV meteorologist said last night, "figure out how you are gonna heat your house" to rain. Currently, Monday is forecast as rain or ice, depending on source. That is a dramatic improvement over yesterday (ice to snow with 3.6" accumulation) and the day before and it fits with my doubts about a full-blown snow and ice event, so I'm patting myself on the back right now while I can, because it all could change by this afternoon. :lol:

The bulk of Monday's rain is now predicted between 11 a.m and 8 p.m  when temps here are forecast at around 44, so freezing does not seem likely. A rainy day would fit what I thought would happen, so we'll see.

Looking forward to "pivot day" on 2/19, when we will head back into the spring progression with highs going forward in the upper 50s and low 60s Just gotta get through this one spot here. 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTNFAYET29

 

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The Euro OP seems to be wanting to sharpen and dig the energy more, over the N Gulf. I tried to make a gif, but t is hard to get the time stamps synced because teh 6z/18z have different set of hours than the 0/12z runs. 

Here's an example though:

More open, neutrally tilted wave:

ii5Hjly.png 

deeper, sharper, negatively tilted wave:

EXA2FfR.png

 

the deeper that digs and the more negatively it can tilt, especially if it does it right along the MS river, the better for us all. 

This must be the model they are using in my friend's area in coastal Louisiana, where they have been warning of a 90% winter storm chance for the past 3 days. At 7 miles above the AL line in Lincoln County, TN – well, I am all for it! :)

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