Kentucky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 JKL putting snow on the board now 2-4" That's a change, also the .50 of ice with the snow, sounds well...not ideal for maintaining power. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Jackson KY 1050 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-080-084>086-108-111-114-116-131500- /O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0011.210213T0350Z-210213T1500Z/ /O.CON.KJKL.WS.A.0002.210215T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Jackson- Laurel-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Wolfe-Lee-Owsley-Clay- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, McKee, Annville, London, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Campton, Beattyville, Booneville, and Manchester 1050 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, areas of freezing drizzle and higher elevation freezing fog will coat untreated surfaces with a light glaze of ice. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation is possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an inch will be possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast Kentucky. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...For the Winter Weather Advisory, untreated sidewalks, roads, and bridges could become slick. For the Winter Storm Watch, expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson KY 516 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131000- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 516 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...Freezing Drizzle Is Possible Late Tonight Into Saturday Night... Drizzle and freezing drizzle are expected to develop northwestward out of Tennessee and Virginia tonight and Saturday and effect portions of eastern and south central Kentucky. Temperatures will determine whether or not the drizzle freezes as it falls. Subfreezing readings are expected in most places tonight into Saturday morning, but are forecast to rise just above freezing in most places during the day on Saturday, before falling back below freezing in most places on Saturday night as precipitation tapers off. Precipitation amounts should be very light, but could be enough to create slick conditions on untreated surfaces. $$ HAL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kentucky said: JKL putting snow on the board now 2-4" That's a change, also the .50 of ice with the snow, sounds well...not ideal for maintaining power. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Jackson KY 1050 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-069-080-084>086-108-111-114-116-131500- /O.NEW.KJKL.WW.Y.0011.210213T0350Z-210213T1500Z/ /O.CON.KJKL.WS.A.0002.210215T0000Z-210216T1800Z/ Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Jackson- Laurel-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Wolfe-Lee-Owsley-Clay- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, McKee, Annville, London, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Campton, Beattyville, Booneville, and Manchester 1050 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, areas of freezing drizzle and higher elevation freezing fog will coat untreated surfaces with a light glaze of ice. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation is possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of up to one half of an inch will be possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central, south central and southeast Kentucky. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST Saturday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...For the Winter Weather Advisory, untreated sidewalks, roads, and bridges could become slick. For the Winter Storm Watch, expect power outages and tree damage due to the ice. Travel could be impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson KY 516 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-131000- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 516 PM EST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...Freezing Drizzle Is Possible Late Tonight Into Saturday Night... Drizzle and freezing drizzle are expected to develop northwestward out of Tennessee and Virginia tonight and Saturday and effect portions of eastern and south central Kentucky. Temperatures will determine whether or not the drizzle freezes as it falls. Subfreezing readings are expected in most places tonight into Saturday morning, but are forecast to rise just above freezing in most places during the day on Saturday, before falling back below freezing in most places on Saturday night as precipitation tapers off. Precipitation amounts should be very light, but could be enough to create slick conditions on untreated surfaces. $$ HAL I see the interstate is closed in your area or just south of you for black ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: I see the interstate is closed in your area or just south of you for black ice. Looks like north and south of me. Freezing fog/drizzle, it was really coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Kentucky said: Looks like north and south of me. Freezing fog/drizzle, it was really coming down. Yeah. 911 had to call tdot out here. They were apparently not treating 75 here and it's icy too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 You would think OHX would update Crossville's forecast. It's 28 there and they are predicting a low of 32. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Wintersnow888 said: Yep , I have 24 currently and ditto on the daytime temp......we haven't been getting accurate highs on the forecast at all lately. Also have a coating of ice on everything and was wondering if freezing fog could partially be the culprit? It was really foggy all evening Yeah that's the reason and due to a slight mist. Are you in the Cumberland Cove area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, John1122 said: You would think OHX would update Crossville's forecast. It's 28 there and they are predicting a low of 32. Just like last week's big snow, they will ignore it until it goes away (or gets warmer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Looks like to me the forecast temps have been 3 to 4 high today looks like the cold is not being picked up by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 looks like Nashville has now pulled the trigger. I think it was expected. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Nashville TN 314 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 TNZ008>011-027>034-058>066-075-077>080-093>095-131800- /O.NEW.KOHX.WS.A.0002.210215T0000Z-210216T1200Z/ /O.CON.KOHX.WW.Y.0007.000000T0000Z-210213T1600Z/ Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson- Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-Marshall- Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-Warren- Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles- Including the cities of Hendersonville, Gallatin, Goodlettsville, Lafayette, Celina, Byrdstown, Nashville, Lebanon, Mount Juliet, Hartsville, Carthage, South Carthage, Gordonsville, Gainesboro, Cookeville, Livingston, Jamestown, Allardt, Hohenwald, Franklin, Brentwood, Columbia, Lewisburg, Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Woodbury, Smithville, Sparta, Crossville, Shelbyville, Tullahoma, Manchester, McMinnville, Altamont, Coalmont, Spencer, Clifton, Waynesboro, Lawrenceburg, and Pulaski 314 AM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, freezing drizzle, freezing fog, and a few patches of light freeing rain. Additional ice accumulations of a light glaze. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of Middle Tennessee. * WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM CST this morning. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday evening through late Monday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Although confidence is high that significant winter weather will impact the area Sunday night through Monday night, the details including exact snow and ice amounts are subject to change. Please check back for updates. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 MRX will probably issue a winter storm watch for Morgan, Scott, Campbell and Claiborne in the afternoon shift. They've abandoned snow here now, freezing rain and sleet with a low of 25 now for my area. Most modeling suggests more than .5 but they just say .1 to .2 in their forecast. Worst of all it says light rain. Heavy rain washes away a little. Should make for skating rink level travel. Especially if mixed with sleet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 John I value your insight. Do you think this has a chance to trickle down to the great valley floor? I know it is a hard call but what do you think the chances are? Not that I want that at all. The tempatures continue to be 5 or so degrees colder than forecast on a consistent basis. it seems like a possibility to me.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xAllVolsx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 hours ago, Shocker0 said: Yeah that's the reason and due to a slight mist. Are you in the Cumberland Cove area? Drove up to Cincy from Knoxville yesterday. From about Campbell Co past Barea KY was freezing fog and trees and ground with ice blanket. Between Lexington and Cincy it was about 0.1-0.2 in of ice in areas with around 4 to 5 in of snow in most areas. All measurements based on the eye test so definitely just estimates. Came up past lexington around 2p and most of the interstate had been cleared and safe to travel. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, xAllVolsx said: Drove up to Cincy from Knoxville yesterday. From about Campbell Co past Barea KY was freezing fog and trees and ground with ice blanket. Between Lexington and Cincy it was about 0.1-0.2 in of ice in areas with around 4 to 5 in of snow in most areas. All measurements based on the eye test so definitely just estimates. Came up past lexington around 2p and most of the interstate had been cleared and safe to travel. 75 is bad in Whitley and Campbell this morning if you're coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The 06z GFS is tough on the Plateau. Coming in line with the 06z rgem for snow out west. The rgem shifted its snow axis west some vs 12z and bumped Memphis back up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, bearman said: John I value your insight. Do you think this has a chance to trickle down to the great valley floor? I know it is a hard call but what do you think the chances are? Not that I want that at all. The tempatures continue to be 5 or so degrees colder than forecast on a consistent basis. it seems like a possibility to me.. It looks like it has its best shot on Monday night. The further west and north you are the more likely it does. Anderson, and Roane have the best shot. Deep west Knoxville has better odds than east Knoxville too. It's crazy how the precip overnight has oriented just below the subfreezing airmass. It been a long miserable night down there it looks like. 33-36 and rain is my most disliked winter weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro has some better CAA for Memphis,some nice snow showing now ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 00Z FEB13 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SAT 00Z 13-FEB -3.8 1.4 128 9299 04006 SAT 06Z 13-FEB -4.8 2.6 128 9689 02010 SAT 12Z 13-FEB -5.3 1.1 128 8705 00010 0.00 SAT 18Z 13-FEB -0.3 -0.5 128 8074 35010 0.00 SUN 00Z 14-FEB -1.5 -1.0 128 9031 01009 0.00 SUN 06Z 14-FEB -4.6 -0.5 128 8688 02010 0.00 SUN 12Z 14-FEB -7.4 0.5 127 8485 02010 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -0.3 1.1 128 8251 02011 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB -1.0 2.2 129 8213 01011 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -5.8 -1.3 127 7824 00011 0.08 MON 12Z 15-FEB -8.0 -1.4 127 7920 36012 0.01 MON 18Z 15-FEB -9.1 -2.5 126 0 35009 0.22 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -10.1 -3.2 126 0 35011 0.60 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -10.1 -6.2 125 0 33010 0.10 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -14.5 -9.2 124 0 32005 0.00 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -9.8 -6.8 125 0 34004 0.00 WED 00Z 17-FEB -10.5 -4.6 126 0 34005 0.00 WED 06Z 17-FEB -9.8 -1.6 127 0 07005 0.00 WED 12Z 17-FEB -8.6 -2.4 127 0 04005 0.00 WED 18Z 17-FEB -4.5 -1.2 128 0 04007 0.01 THU 00Z 18-FEB -3.9 -1.6 128 0 03006 0.10 THU 06Z 18-FEB -4.5 -2.0 128 0 00008 0.13 THU 12Z 18-FEB -5.7 -3.4 127 0 35009 0.00 THU 18Z 18-FEB -3.5 -6.7 127 0 34008 0.00 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -7.8 -7.0 127 0 32006 0.00 FRI 06Z 19-FEB -12.6 -7.7 127 0 30007 0.00 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -11.6 -5.2 127 0 03002 0.00 FRI 18Z 19-FEB -0.1 -3.8 128 79 25002 0.00 SAT 00Z 20-FEB -1.0 -1.3 130 3420 21004 0.00 SAT 06Z 20-FEB -4.2 -0.7 131 4145 17006 0.00 SAT 12Z 20-FEB -3.7 -1.2 130 3619 18008 0.00 SAT 18Z 20-FEB 3.6 1.7 130 6974 23007 0.00 SUN 00Z 21-FEB 0.7 4.1 132 6547 18005 0.00 SUN 06Z 21-FEB -2.7 3.9 133 8729 15004 0.00 SUN 12Z 21-FEB -4.1 3.7 133 7011 13006 0.00 SUN 18Z 21-FEB 9.4 2.9 134 8516 19008 0.00 MON 00Z 22-FEB 8.2 4.6 134 8660 22009 0.02 MON 06Z 22-FEB 3.4 4.1 133 8152 27006 0.00 MON 12Z 22-FEB -1.6 4.4 133 7458 04003 0.00 MON 18Z 22-FEB 10.8 4.3 133 8233 16004 0.00 TUE 00Z 23-FEB 8.1 4.3 134 7778 19005 0.00 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Uncertainty for Nashville ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 00Z FEB13 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SAT 00Z 13-FEB -1.8 1.6 128 9156 36006 SAT 06Z 13-FEB -2.3 1.5 129 9165 00006 SAT 12Z 13-FEB -2.5 2.1 129 8385 35006 0.00 SAT 18Z 13-FEB 2.6 1.6 129 8140 35006 0.00 SUN 00Z 14-FEB 0.5 -1.2 129 8732 35007 0.00 SUN 06Z 14-FEB -3.5 0.6 128 8889 36007 0.00 SUN 12Z 14-FEB -4.7 0.9 128 8314 01007 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB 2.8 0.9 129 8174 01007 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB 1.4 -0.6 129 6526 00006 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -1.0 0.9 129 7634 35007 0.02 MON 12Z 15-FEB -3.1 1.9 129 7576 02007 0.12 MON 18Z 15-FEB -2.3 1.4 129 8837 01007 0.01 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -3.9 0.6 129 5081 36008 0.35 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -4.5 0.3 128 3966 32009 0.43 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -8.4 -5.5 126 0 29006 0.12 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -4.7 -7.1 126 0 30005 0.00 WED 00Z 17-FEB -5.4 -7.6 127 0 33004 0.00 WED 06Z 17-FEB -10.3 -2.8 127 2929 04004 0.00 WED 12Z 17-FEB -8.4 -1.1 127 4316 03003 0.00 WED 18Z 17-FEB -1.2 0.4 129 5100 02004 0.00 THU 00Z 18-FEB -2.1 0.1 130 4488 02005 0.00 THU 06Z 18-FEB -3.2 -0.5 130 2796 00004 0.29 THU 12Z 18-FEB -3.2 -1.0 129 2337 33006 0.08 THU 18Z 18-FEB -2.8 -2.1 128 0 32007 0.03 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -3.3 -7.0 127 0 32006 0.00 FRI 06Z 19-FEB -6.1 -8.9 126 0 32005 0.00 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -12.0 -8.8 125 0 32004 0.00 FRI 18Z 19-FEB -2.5 -6.6 127 0 29001 0.00 SAT 00Z 20-FEB -4.3 -5.3 129 250 14004 0.00 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Got some freezing drizzle up here in Morgan County, and maybe a very melted snow flake or two mixed in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Overnight Ukie takes the early week system's surface LP east of the Apps : Then the systems keep on coming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Overnight Euro OP for western areas. I know Jax already shared teh specifics, but notice the "Max" number on the image. How manyt times will you see that number at hour 120 over the SE (and not the Apps?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z EPS members. Some of them seem to have crept east a bit since 12z yesterday: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z GEFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just from the perspective of "how do numerical forecast model services depict precip" perspective, it is interesting to see the diff. between the RGEM on TT and the RGEM on pivotal Hour 63: Here's the RGEM sounding that Pivotal gives over my general area for that time: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The Euro OP seems to be wanting to sharpen and dig the energy more, over the N Gulf. I tried to make a gif, but t is hard to get the time stamps synced because teh 6z/18z have different set of hours than the 0/12z runs. Here's an example though: More open, neutrally tilted wave: deeper, sharper, negatively tilted wave: the deeper that digs and the more negatively it can tilt, especially if it does it right along the MS river, the better for us all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z Euro: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 59 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6z Euro: Hi, the local NWS for my area, Greenville MS in NW MS states only up to 2 inches of snow on top of sleet and freezing rain which I don’t want. However they have been wrong all week with this air. We haven’t been above freezing since Wednesday night I believe. According to the data above we are in a max zone. Do you think they are underestimating the CAA? The last time we had anything over 3 inches was many years ago, early 00s.. Just wondering! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 24 minutes ago, david30 said: Do you think they are underestimating the CAA? The last time we had anything over 3 inches was many years ago, early 00s.. Just wondering! Honestly I know so little about your microclimates there, I'm not sure. It looks like y'all are right on the Mississippi, and I know that being that close to a river can occasionally cause issues with surface temps here in the TN valley. That being said the 6z NAM and RGEM and obviously the 6z Euro put you just on the N. side of the mix/ freezing rain line, which should max out accums overhead. That's a stout warm nose on the NAM though and ant variation of that layer of above freezing air could change the precip quickly for you: the RGEM has a humongo DGZ, but still has a warm nose, though not enough to get freezing rain: Honestly, if I were making a forecast, I would do what they are doing there. Most of us on these boards want the max accumulation and to see big snowflakes. That's the bottom line for us. Professional forecasters though are more concerned with communicating hazards and impacts to individuals in their communities, so going with a Winter Storm Watch, and a mixed bag, given current model output is probably a good bet. Freezing rain and sleet can be more impactful for travel than snow, so erring on the side of "worst case scenario" (i.e. major ice storm, is probably the way to go. That way if it does turn out to be more snowfall, they can adjust and people are still aware. TBH even a glaze of ice on roads is worse than 6 - 8" of snow, IMO, so the more people you can keep off the roads during the event, the better. Another consideration, is that you are on the N. fringe of the Jackson, MS NWS area. I know John has noticed that sometimes plateau fringe areas here don't seem to get as much attention, but in our case that could be a decision based on population and Greenville MS looks like a decently sized town. I just don't know how that works out usually down there. Sometimes you can see a glaring difference between forecast offices by looking at the NWS NDFD snow maps, but in this case, the area between Jackson and Memphis looks pretty smooth, no big jumps as you go from one NWS area to another: 6z NWS NMB (National Model Blend, which I think a NWS met mentioned on twitter still uses an old version of the Euro) looks similar: If it were me, and I were forecasting I'd say the following: 3-6 snow, additional ice and sleet. Bottom line, travel will become hazardous and life threatening for you and other people on the road, don't go out unless you have to and monitor the latest conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I agree with @david30 that it does appear it will be warmer along the storm frontal boundary than earlier forecasts. The track is also firming up as more northerly. Currently in Lincoln County, TN, 7 miles above the AL line: 29 degrees, wind NNE at 2-3. 0" precip overnight, barometer 29.92 inHg. Potential high 37. I had to sit down and slide myself off the edge of my porch this morning to get out of the house. The culprit: freezing fog, which is still present but not dense. Salt has been duly applied and the cows will just have to wait a few hours and a few degrees before they get hay. There's a positive to the weather situation that the cold-warm boundary this morning remains between Montevallo, AL, (38) and Montgomery, AL, (47). It has not moved farther south since it slid about 100 miles south overnight Wednesday to Thursday. That bodes well for better outcomes here along the AL state line in Giles, Lincoln and Franklin counties of TN. My farm remains on the edge of the "maybe" zone, so forecasts continue to vary pretty widely by source – between, as a TV meteorologist said last night, "figure out how you are gonna heat your house" to rain. Currently, Monday is forecast as rain or ice, depending on source. That is a dramatic improvement over yesterday (ice to snow with 3.6" accumulation) and the day before and it fits with my doubts about a full-blown snow and ice event, so I'm patting myself on the back right now while I can, because it all could change by this afternoon. The bulk of Monday's rain is now predicted between 11 a.m and 8 p.m when temps here are forecast at around 44, so freezing does not seem likely. A rainy day would fit what I thought would happen, so we'll see. Looking forward to "pivot day" on 2/19, when we will head back into the spring progression with highs going forward in the upper 50s and low 60s Just gotta get through this one spot here. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KTNFAYET29 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The Euro OP seems to be wanting to sharpen and dig the energy more, over the N Gulf. I tried to make a gif, but t is hard to get the time stamps synced because teh 6z/18z have different set of hours than the 0/12z runs. Here's an example though: More open, neutrally tilted wave: deeper, sharper, negatively tilted wave: the deeper that digs and the more negatively it can tilt, especially if it does it right along the MS river, the better for us all. This must be the model they are using in my friend's area in coastal Louisiana, where they have been warning of a 90% winter storm chance for the past 3 days. At 7 miles above the AL line in Lincoln County, TN – well, I am all for it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 In the time it took to type the above, the Monday forecast here in Lincoln County, TN, has changed to rain to wintery mix with 1.9" accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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