Shocker0 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 It seems like this storm hasn't put down near as much ice as expected...is that correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: It seems like this storm hasn't put down near as much ice as expected...is that correct? From what I’ve seen, yes. I’m glad it underperformed though versus the alternative. Some places north of 40 got some decent sleet accumulation also, saw some pics of white covered roads in Tipton county this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: From what I’ve seen, yes. I’m glad it underperformed though versus the alternative. Some places north of 40 got some decent sleet accumulation also, saw some pics of white covered roads in Tipton county this morning. Same. And I'm sure the ones that were hoping for a lot of ice would've been wishing otherwise if it had actually happened. We had over an inch here in February 2015 and it was not fun at all. We had to stay in hotels all week in Cookeville and they jacked up the rates since they knew almost everyone in Crossville had no power (and hotels were full in Crossville). Then we got back and had to throw away all our food and had insult added to injury by getting a $450 electric bill somehow despite having no power for a week. Major ice storms are miserable even for winter lovers. Hopefully the storm early next week will overperform for the middle and western areas but be all snow. Whatever falls will stick around for a few days at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Shocker0 said: Same. And I'm sure the ones that were hoping for a lot of ice would've been wishing otherwise if it had actually happened. We had over an inch here in February 2015 and it was not fun at all. We had to stay in hotels all week in Cookeville and they jacked up the rates since they knew almost everyone in Crossville had no power (and hotels were full in Crossville). Then we got back and had to throw away all our food and had insult added to injury by getting a $450 electric bill somehow despite having no power for a week. Major ice storms are miserable even for winter lovers. Hopefully the storm early next week will overperform for the middle and western areas but be all snow. Whatever falls will stick around for a few days at least. Agreed. We also had no power for 11 days and lost several trees. Just checked my temp and it's 33- hope it's not switching already to FR 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 50 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: It seems like this storm hasn't put down near as much ice as expected...is that correct? I would say so. Perhaps some of the more knowledgeable guys can chime in on this one, but the ice didn't seem to accreate on the trees and power lines much, thankfully. We had several bursts of heavy freezing rain overnight, maybe runoff was an issue. Either way, I'm thankful. I'm as big of a winter weather fan as the next guy, but these ice storms aren't much fun. Hope we all score on some snow this coming week though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, WestTennWX said: I would say so. Perhaps some of the more knowledgeable guys can chime in on this one, but the ice didn't seem to accreate on the trees and power lines much, thankfully. We had several bursts of heavy freezing rain overnight, maybe runoff was an issue. Either way, I'm thankful. I'm as big of a winter weather fan as the next guy, but these ice storms aren't much fun. Hope we all score on some snow this coming week though. Yeah we had an ice storm on the 16th of that year too and I thought it was bad at the time, but looking back it was nothing at all compared to the one five days later. You guys are all definitely overdue for a big snow storm out there though and hopefully it'll come soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 18z RGEM sticking to it's cold and wintry guns: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 My first post. No thunder overnight in southern Lincoln County, TN, seven miles above the Alabama state line. Hit our high of 49 at midnight. Been mostly 37 since 7 a.m., and 36 degrees now with wind NNE at 4-9 but swinging around to the west and even the north, and barometer at 29.87. Rainfall so far 0.46", way below the 1 or 2 inches predicted. We had no really heavy rain and no ice. Thankful because we formerly were in the target zone in long-range forecasting. I have been looking at the ice storm models for Monday-ish. I dunno, it is a maybe thing IMO. If you look at temps to the south of us in Alabama, they get quite high quite fast. It will depend on how strong that warm push is, whether ice can accumulate or we just get a cold rain or pellets. I am due 25 miles away in Huntsville on Monday so I hope it is indeed rain or the ambient temp has been high enough that the ground is warm enough to prevent road freezing. Otherwise, could be a fun ride! For a week now, it has looked to me like 2/19 could be called the "pivot day" for this event, at least in southern TN and north AL. After 2/19, I think the trend should be to warming and I think we should get into the 50s and low 60s in the central southern TN border counties during the last week of the month. 2/18 and 2/19 themselves could be dicey with maybe wintery-like weather. But I still think once we get past 2/19, we should get on track to some genuine springlike conditions. Slightly misty out currently but the rain clouds have left my county for the most part. I doubt we get much more accumulation. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 52 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z RGEM sticking to it's cold and wintry guns: This is exactly what I've been watching and I am hoping we get a push from the south to keep this from being as nasty as it looks right now. Plenty of time for change yet. Right now it is 36 where I live near the northern AL-southern TN border but you only have to go to Birmingham AL and it is 53. Come on, southern oscillation! PUSH! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Friends and family in Paris said they got an initial round of freezing rain and then a transition to sleet. Enough ice to freeze mailboxes shut and enough sleet to completely cover the roads. Overall not too bad, especially compared to some of the modeling. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 18z RGEM sticking to it's cold and wintry guns: Just from looking at their forecasts vs model outputs I think MRX is heavily invested in the Euro. Over the last 48 hours or so they've followed almost exactly the Euro temp profiles and ptypes. When the Euro was the only model showing 40s here Monday they had my high at 42. Now the Euro dropped significantly and they have my high at 32. The Euro shows rain Saturday, they have rain here Saturday. They are also using the Euro temp profiles for Saturday while other models have me near freezing then Euro is much warmer in the upper 30s, my high is 37 Saturday per MRX. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just from looking at their forecasts vs model outputs I think MRX is heavily invested in the Euro. Over the last 48 hours or so they've followed almost exactly the Euro temp profiles and ptypes. When the Euro was the only model showing 40s here Monday they had my high at 42. Now the Euro dropped significantly and they have my high at 32. The Euro shows rain Saturday, they have rain here Saturday. They are also using the Euro temp profiles for Saturday while other models have me near freezing then Euro is much warmer in the upper 30s, my high is 37 Saturday per MRX. SREF will be their next move when the EURO trends south . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Right now it is 37 in Huntsville, AL, 46 in Scottsboro, AL, and 50 in Fort Payne, AL. Quite the boundary in just 68 miles. Huntsville TV weather is saying ice is coming Sunday night but I still have my doubts as of right now. I think it could literally go either way depending on the boundary. It IS changing as we go. Some forecasts are shifting right now to wintery mix (snow/rain) for Monday only. It's a hard one to predict! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Down to 35 here in Morgan county. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 What do you think?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 25 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said: What do you think?? "If you plan for the worst, no surprises are unpleasant." --Robert Jordan, The Shadow Rising 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 34.7 and moderate rain here in Morgan County 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 46 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said: What do you think?? I think the all snow forecast will be wrong, but I hope it's right! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I guess they are rolling the dice on the Canadian. It's been showing snow instead of zr or sleet. MRX has sleet changing to snow here on Tuesday for me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Currently 34.5 here with lt. Rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 31.8 with freezing drizzle here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 30 here with drizzle/ mist 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I think we're at the point where all the water is releasing its latent heat, at my house. 32 and drippy here in Mossy Grove with a brisk NNW wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highway2Heel Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 28 with a light freezing mist in Columbia, TN. Just took the dog out and slipped on the back patio. Be careful everyone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 In southern Lincoln County, seven miles above the AL line, 31 degrees and ground fog. Winds E at 3, and man, that fog plus the wind made it chilly out there this morning at 7 a.m. Barometer 30.01 inHg. As I suspected, our future forecast for the southern border counties in TN bordering AL is changing quite a bit since about 8 p.m. last night. Then, it looked like all rain overnight Sunday and then snow starting Monday after Noon. Right now in this model, Sunday night looks like ice to rain, changing to light ice overnight. Then Monday starts out ice to later snow with 3.6" total accumulation (about 1.3" more than last night's guess). I know there will be further changes in the outlook as we get to Saturday night. For me, it sucks if this happens, as I was due in Huntsville, AL, for a COVID vaccination on Monday morning! Right now, you have to go all the way south to near Montgomery, AL, to find a warming line. Montgomery is 49 now and going to 56 today. By the time you go north to Pelham, it is 40 and expected to be 46. We just had a similar model of a winter storm brewing over Arkansas that was gonna sweep across Tennessee and north Alabama, but it wound up traveling well north of us with a warm air push. Still time for change. We'll see what happens. What do you think? This map seems dated to the high side on temps for our area already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Huh.... This NWS snowfall forecast for 12 Sunday through 12 Monday contradicts our local weather predictions in the greater Huntsville, AL region including Giles and Lincoln counties of Tennessee by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 On 2/9/2021 at 1:29 PM, WestTennWX said: Let's see how this one plays out. At WestTennWX, would you be willing to change the name of this thread so we can integrate the Monday -Tuesday system in it as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Sweetpea Farms said: Huh.... This NWS snowfall forecast for 12 Sunday through 12 Monday contradicts our local weather predictions in the greater Huntsville, AL region including Giles and Lincoln counties of Tennessee by quite a bit. I wouldn’t worry much at this point, most of what is modeled to fall would be after 12z Monday so that’s why you’re not seeing it on this map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, AMZ8990 said: I wouldn’t worry much at this point, most of what is modeled to fall would be after 12z Monday so that’s why you’re not seeing it on this map. It's currently locally predicted as ice to rain and then back to ice overnight on Sunday, then ice to snow Monday accumulating to 3.6 inches in Lincoln County, TN. That is 1.3 inches higher than yesterday's forecast. But this whole period is squirrelly (and fun) to forecast. The NWS prediction map follows exactly what happened about a week ago when we were definitely gonna get slammed with major storm out of Arkansas. It went north. Fine by me, as I have had my doubts about major winter storm activity over my area since this last potential threat arose. I've thought the southern warmth will rise just enough to mostly push it north, though parts of NW Tennessee will see some winter weather. Plenty of time for that scenario to evolve. It sure would make feeding my cattle easier. Go NWS! We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Snowing here,sticking to the roofs so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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