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2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold


WestTennWX
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44 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I feel you. We had 4.5 inches of snow, closed interstates and widespread power outages when a winter storm warning was finally issued at 4am here.  

I don't think they ever even issued one here and it was obvious by 11pm that night it was gonna snow for several more hours and we already had a couple inches at that point. Ended up being the biggest snow in 5 years here and was a WWA.

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30 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I don't remember ever hearing about a warm nose warming the surface in an arctic airmass situation but that's interesting. It's 10c at 850 over Memphis but 20s at the surface during the event so it seems to not affect them. 

Latency made add a degree at best...only way I see that helping is if you were borderline 30-31°

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I don't remember ever hearing about a warm nose warming the surface in an arctic airmass situation but that's interesting. It's 10c at 850 over Memphis but 20s at the surface during the event so it seems to not affect them. 

It basically defies everything we know about how the atmospheric temps work. I’ve never heard of warm air sinking when there’s cold air underneath it.


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Would like to thank you guys for all the input. I’ve been following for years. This storm definitely has become more concerning for me in Wilson Co. (definitely making a run to the grocery tomorrow) Worried how we are this close to an event and all of the High res models have a different line. This season has brought a lot of unexpected across the region and I don’t think that’s going to change this week. We are in for a wild 24 hours to see what’s going to happen. I wish everyone the best.


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32 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:


It basically defies everything we know about how the atmospheric temps work. I’ve never heard of warm air sinking when there’s cold air underneath it. emoji2369.png


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Actually it's not...here's the process that happens, it's the reverse of what happens during evaporative cooling. Evaporative cooling is going from a solid (snow) to liquid (rain) as it falls thru the column..to complete the process it needs to absorb the heat from the surrounding air. Freezing rain just reverses that (liquid to solid).

 

When water (in any of the three phrases) moves from a lower to a higher ordered state, the air surrounding the H20 will have energy added to it. This is called a release of latent heat (e.g. when heat is subtracted from liquid water, the individual water molecules will slow down. They eventually slow down to the point at which the hydrogen bonds do not allow the liquid to rotate anymore. Ice now develops. The energy the water molecules once had to rotate has been given up to the surrounding air). The three processes that add heat to the surrounding air are condensation, freezing and deposition (gas to solid).

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15 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said:

Does anybody expect Bell and Harlan Counties to be added to the Ice Storm Warning?

It's going to be close that far east but it wouldn't shock me. The hollows there are notorious for draining cold air getting trapped. Harlan has a better shot than Bell if I were guessing.  

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Anyone think Buchanan County, VA will end up with anything frozen? The forecast was 32 degrees and all rain for Thursday night last I checked. Seems like a few of the models show ZR possibly creeping in, but I'm pretty much a noob with a lot of this. Funny thing, and I promise this isn't me whining lol, just very curious. It almost always seems like Buchanan county is the cut off to any kind of frozen precip when temps are borderline. To the east, west, north and sometimes south. Is that anything to do with the formation of the mountains? Maybe the cold has a harder time pushing through? We definitely get our fair share of rain here. One of the only things Grundy is known for are the terrible floods throughout the years. You guys are so awesome with all of your knowledge, maybe someone can fill me in. Sorry this turned into a two part post lol.

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34 minutes ago, BuCoVaWx said:

Anyone think Buchanan County, VA will end up with anything frozen? The forecast was 32 degrees and all rain for Thursday night last I checked. Seems like a few of the models show ZR possibly creeping in, but I'm pretty much a noob with a lot of this. Funny thing, and I promise this isn't me whining lol, just very curious. It almost always seems like Buchanan county is the cut off to any kind of frozen precip when temps are borderline. To the east, west, north and sometimes south. Is that anything to do with the formation of the mountains? Maybe the cold has a harder time pushing through? We definitely get our fair share of rain here. One of the only things Grundy is known for are the terrible floods throughout the years. You guys are so awesome with all of your knowledge, maybe someone can fill me in. Sorry this turned into a two part post lol.

The front will have a better shot the further north you are and you're in a low spot compared to areas around you. If you can get cold air trapped you'll have a good shot. It looks like models are pushing it over the Apps there, so it's likely deeper up that way and should be able to spill over.  You are in a tough spot for downsloping when snow hits if you're in Grundy. I believe the elevations are higher to your northwest, west, and southwest, which are all primary directions that snow producing systems have their moisture feed from here. But being down deep in a hollow like that you're much more prone to ice because it is likely tough to scour out of the valley where Grundy is located.

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Thank you very much. That definitely makes sense. I live in Big Rock, right on the Va/Ky state line. The mountains behind my house and across from my house have had snow on them for what seems like weeks. Down here in the valley, seems it takes a strong push to get the cold to settle in for a good snow. As a snow lover, it can be frustrating to see the snow all around in the higher elevations but not in the lower. I really shouldn't complain though. It is an absolute beautiful sight when the mountain tops are covered in snow.

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Disco from Memphis this morning....worth the entire read.

DISCUSSION...
A significant ice storm is expected to impact the Mid South later
this afternoon through early Thursday afternoon. We are already
seeing some icing and dangerous travel this morning across
Arkansas. The Ice Storm Warning continues to be adjusted this
morning as the push of colder air made it into the AR/MS delta
regions. We have added Lee and Phillips Counties in AR to the
warning, and we have also adjusted the Winter Storm Watch to
include more areas in west Tennessee and north Mississippi. This
will continue to be the case as we go through the event. Portions
of the area will be upgraded to Ice Storm Warnings as the event
unfolds. The freezing line this morning is draped across the
forecast area and we will continue to watch the progress of this
line as it will snake across the Mid South and serve as the
delineation of ZR and rain. Taking a look at the range of
possibilities for ice accumulation across the Mid South, we are
generally seeing most of the guidance keep ice accumulations less
than an inch of ice for the Mid South. The Worst Case Scenario
(90th Percentile) shows a swath of 0.5 to 0.75 inch of ice along
and north of I-40...just north of downtown Memphis, and a quarter
inch of ice as far south as Clarksdale, MS. The most likely
scenario (50th Percentile) has a swath of ice of 0.25-0.40 along
and north of I-40 with little to no accumulation south of I-40.
The official forecast sticks close to WPC guidance with is more
in line with the 50th percentile.

We will have to watch for trends in obs and rainfall to adjust
the forecast as needed. Either way a significant ice storm will
make travel very dangerous...cause power outages...and tree
damage. The other thing to be said for this event is that this ice
has the potential to be around for a while. Precipitation will
move out and end on Thursday, but from Thursday night
onward....portions of the forecast area will not get above
freezing until late next week. Ice could be around into the
weekend. This means the possibility of power outages with
bitterly cold temperatures for several days. Wind chill readings
Friday and Saturday will be quite cold, approaching single digits
in some areas. A fast-moving trough will bring a chance for very
light snow to portions of the area Saturday evening, but no
impacts are anticipated. A reinforcing cold shot will arrive by
Sunday, where wind chill values will fall below zero early next
week. Beyond the cold...another system is expected to impact the
Mid South Monday night into Tuesday. This could bring another shot
of winter precipitation, but let`s get past this ice storm first
before we dive into that system.
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For the middle Tennessee area image7.png?2ad014206eecbcc4e853d0f964e4a74a
Winter Storm Watch in effect from 6 PM Wednesday through 6 PM on Thursday. Freezing rain with ice accumulations of one tenth to greater than one quarter of an inch possible in the Watch. Power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Tavel could be very dangeergous. Thehazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute.
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