Matthew70 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Never can have anything simple here.Inverted trough,this could really cut into the snow and be more IP or ZR around our parts I remember the days when a southern slider was money for mid TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: I remember the days when a southern slider was money for mid TN. Long as i have been living in Tn i have never recalled a system before it gets to the Big bend of Fl eject to Northern Ga that fast Edit:I'm not saying its fast really,but the track is rather unique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Going to bed, but our business has given us the day off tomorrow. Seems smart eith most of the roads being completely iced over as of now. Just had our first actual good rain shower come over a few minutes ago. Temperature warmed up a degree to 27 as well. TWC has raised our high temp from 32 all the way to 38 now tomorrow but we'll see. NWS Nashville originally had it around that but actually has us only at 34 now for the high. Good luck to all the Western and Middle forum areas, hopefully it will be a mostly snow event and a good one at that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 27 - Freezing Rain/Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Ice Ice baby, up here 30 with NNW wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Drizzle and a couple of light freezing rain showers here overnight. Sheen of ice on basically everything. 28 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Yuck: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CG2 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Time for people in west TN to wake-up and give us some updates!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tobiewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Currently sitting at 13 degrees with 3/4 inch of sleet/snow on ground, heaviest precipitation is close upon arrival, I’m just south of Memphis like 28 miles. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 From NWS Huntsville: Ice Storm Warning issued for northwest and north central Alabama... https://www.weather.gov/hun/ From Twitter: Morgan County Sheriff's Office @morgan_sheriff· 21m [Update] Major vehicle pile up. No major injuries. 231 blocked in both directions. Northbound is sheet of ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 24 minutes ago, CG2 said: Time for people in west TN to wake-up and give us some updates!!! Slept in a little later than I wanted to this morning..haha Most of what is covering the ground we picked up with the last wave that came through sometime between 3 and 6, I'd say an an inch and a half to two inches 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 COOL – WE HAVE POWER! Last night worked out pretty much as I had expected for us in southern Lincoln County. My skepticism was accurate. That warmth to our south pushed it around us just enough. We dodged it. Overnight, we had a 78% precip probability but got 0.00". This morning at 7:30, light icing on windshields (I've seen thicker frosts), 28 degrees, winds NE at 2 and barometer steady at 29.85 inHg. A quick peek at the forecast this morning sees us with 100% chance of snow of 5-8 inches. I have not looked at any models yet. Really hoping all the members who can't log in this morning because of power outages are coping well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Both PAH and MEM morning discos mention up to 20:1 snow ratios for this afternoon....unreal for this area 8 degrees this morning with a wind chill of -11. Gusts to 24. Brutal! From PAH: Additionally, with very cold tropospheric temperatures, snow-to-liquid ratios of 10-15:1 this morning are forecast to increase to 15-20:1 by this afternoon. So the combination of the strong forcing, high QPF, and high SLRs will contribute to very efficient snow accumulation. Overall, storm total snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches is expected, with some localized totals up to a foot. Add in the north winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 to 25 mph, and blowing and drifting snow will be a problem. All this adds up to a serious situation that will cripple the flow of traffic and commerce in the region. And dangerously cold sub zero wind chills in many locations heightens the threat to life. As a result, the Winter Storm Warning will continue through tonight. MEM: Short term...(Today through Tuesday)...An 850 mb low will move from Central Arkansas today northeast into the Ohio Valley tonight. Ample moisture and strong large scale forcing combined with a very cold arctic airmass will continue to produce wintry precipitation across the Mid-South throughout the day and heavy at times this morning and into this afternoon. Analysis of short term model soundings indicates precipitation will remain snow over Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee, initially a mix of sleet and snow along and south of I-40 and gradually transitioning to all snow this morning near the Mississippi River and gradually across the remainder of West Tennessee into this afternoon. Snow ratios will average from 20:1 near the MO/KY border to 15:1 towards North Mississippi. Meanwhile, precipitation across most of North Central and Northeast Mississippi will be a mixture of sleet and freezing rain then gradually transitioning to snow towards the end of the event towards this evening. Areas to the southeast of Tupelo are most likely to experience freezing rain for much of the event and the Winter Storm Warning was transitioned over to an ice storm warning where one quarter to one half inch of ice accumulation may occur. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 hours ago, bamabonners said: Sweetpea, I'm just southeast of huntsville in Owens Cross Roads. Looking like most of this is staying just west of us, which is fine with me. I don't mind snow, but I don't want anything to do with ice. Are you thinking the same? Sorry, I was watching TV when you posted! I'm with you! It can snow all it wants, but ice is bad. We dodged a bullet. I went through a couple ice storms here - worst I think was 1994, we were out of power for 7 days. I've just got my first cup of coffee, but I'm due to dive into the models to see why the heck they predict 5-8 inches of snow here when winds are NN EAST! That sounds ludicrous. But we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, WestTennWX said: Both PAH and MEM morning discos mention up to 20:1 snow ratios for this afternoon....unreal for this area 8 degrees this morning with a wind chill of -11. Gusts to 24. Brutal!. My gosh, you are just 140 miles or so north of me (if we count north only and not the west part), and you are at EIGHT? Hoo boy, glad I sat this one out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Sweetpea Farms said: A quick peek at the forecast this morning sees us with 100% chance of snow of 5-8 inches. I have not looked at any models yet. I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm probably 35 miles northwest of you and I'll be very happy with half an inch of snow this evening on the tail end of this thing. You may be able to warm above freezing for a period this afternoon, several of the short range models show the freezing line advancing that far before getting hung up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I dunno, this shows us in Lincoln County with about an inch or so of snow coming and that was my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Coach B said: I haven't seen that anywhere. I'm probably 35 miles northwest of you and I'll be very happy with half an inch of snow this evening on the tail end of this thing. You may be able to warm above freezing for a period this afternoon, several of the short range models show the freezing line advancing that far before getting hung up. It just dropped to 3-5 inches. I am saying 1 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 We are still only at 26° in Crossville. TWC has our high at 36° with 3-5" of snow. I don't think either one of those things are happening today lol. Maybe the 36° part but if anything falls outta the sky this far east it'll likely be rain, frozen or not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Sweetpea Farms said: Sorry, I was watching TV when you posted! I'm with you! It can snow all it wants, but ice is bad. We dodged a bullet. I went through a couple ice storms here - worst I think was 1994, we were out of power for 7 days. I've just got my first cup of coffee, but I'm due to dive into the models to see why the heck they predict 5-8 inches of snow here when winds are NN EAST! That sounds ludicrous. But we'll see. Just curious, Why do you think winds out of the NN East is unusual when getting large snows? I live in the Knoxville area and almost all the large storms i remember have had an east or north east wind component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Coming up from the south. It's just not quite here yet. Come on, 34 degrees! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, bearman said: Just curious, Why do you think winds out of the NN East is unusual when getting large snows? I live in the Knoxville area and almost all the large storms i remember have had an east or north east wind component. NNE here is a good thing. It is the SW wind that carries our big storms. NNE wind pushes against them and moves them away. Been on this spot observing weather for 31 years now, that's how she rolls here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, CG2 said: Time for people in west TN to wake-up and give us some updates!!! Light snow falling in Hardeman county atm, we probably picked up 1/2 inch of snow/sleet last night: looks like things should start ramping up around 9am 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Now raining as the lead ice edge moves over us. Temp 28. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 LOL! Forecast now up to 5-8 inches again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Looks like East Arkansas (Little Rock east to Tennessee border is getting hammered pretty good right now. Sitting at 14 in bolivar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Light icing with drizzle to light rain in southern Lincoln County now, 7 miles above the AL line. Temp 30.Winds ENE at 7. Barometer 29.79 falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 This blob of snow moving generally toward me is what I am wondering about. It could miss to the west but right now seems on track to pay a visit later. Might be a few inches there if temps don't rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Geez, I am monopolizing this thread. Time to get off the puter! But here's our rain/ice line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Mesoscale Discussion 0087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0928 AM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana...eastern Mississippi...western Alabama...middle Tennessee...and central/eastern Kentucky Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 151528Z - 152130Z SUMMARY...A relatively narrow band of freezing rain will persist for several hours across the discussion area. The onset of freezing rain will occur in portions of Tennessee in the next hour or so and in Kentucky after around 18-19Z. DISCUSSION...Recent radar mosaic imagery and observations indicate areas of moderate to occasionally heavy freezing rain along an axis from BTR/HUM to HSV. The precipitation was being enhanced by strong ascent associated with an upstream mid-level wave centered over Oklahoma and Texas. Impressive hourly freezing rain rates have been observed - including 0.11 inch per hour at BTR as of 1453Z. Weak mid-level instability was allowing for localized enhancement of precipitation rates in a few areas due to the convective processes. A few lightning flashes have also been observed across Mississippi. Over time, the band of heavier precipitation will migrate northeastward, with freezing rain becoming increasingly likely across Tennessee and Kentucky. Accumulations of 0.05-0.20 inch per 3 hours are possible (locally heavier near convection). Current observations/models indicate that areas of freezing rain have already begun south/southeast of Nashville, and heavier precipitation will begin in the Nashville area in the next hour or so. 3-6 hours of freezing rain is expected. The onset of heavier freezing rain will spread from southwest to northeast across central/eastern Kentucky beginning after around 18-19Z. The axis of heavier freezing rain will shift eastward out of southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi this morning (in the next hour or two), though lighter accumulations of freezing drizzle/rain and sleet may continue throughout the afternoon. ..Cook.. 02/15/2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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