2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold

[Kentucky]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

As a heads-up, those are 6z. Pivotal gets me all of the time when it switches runs.

Yep, it got me. will update to 12z when it finishes. Thanks

[codgator]

Need some good runs today not liking the western trends

[AMZ8990]

Light snow is now falling at my house this morning. Concrete walkway, driveway, grill and all that good stuff is all white now.  Starting to see minor accumulation in the grass as well.  It’s a beautiful morning! 

[Kentucky]

 

 

12Z RGEM

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

Yep, it got me. will update to 12z when it finishes. Thanks

For whatever reason, it switches to the most complete run instead of the run in progress.  Hiccup in the programming or design.  Gets me ALL the time.  WxBell has a similar glitch where it will switch to off-run modeling for the Euro when I toggle between it(0z or 12z) and another model.  Drives me crazy!  

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

 

 

12Z RGEM

They are running out of deep colors of blue/purple for ice!  Memphis is close to a huge run there. 

[Kentucky]

4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For whatever reason, it switches to the most complete run instead of the run in progress.  Hiccup in the programming or design.  Gets me ALL the time.  WxBell has a similar glitch where it will switch to off-run modeling for the Euro when I toggle between it(0z or 12z) and another model.  Drives me crazy!  

indeed, so annoying. thanks for heads up

 

 

[Sweetpea Farms]

9 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Light snow is now falling at my house this morning. Concrete walkway, driveway, grill and all that good stuff is all white now.  Starting to see minor accumulation in the grass as well.  It’s a beautiful morning! 

Boy, I'd sure take an all-snow event down here for sure. 

[Sweetpea Farms]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

They are running out of deep colors of blue/purple for ice!  Memphis is close to a huge run there. 

I like this one better than the last one. Shows less ice where I am in Lincoln County. I am still guessing it will be milder on the edge where I am than predicted. We'll keep power but it will be slick. I've gotta take a look at the warm side of this thing to see how much push it has.

[Sweetpea Farms]

[AMZ8990]

[PowellVolz]

One thing that’s a fact.... whatever falls ain’t melting and there shouldn’t be much compaction with how dry it will be.


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[Sweetpea Farms]

Memphis friend reports snowfall there that started about an hour ago. 

[bluegrassweather71]

35 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

 

 

12Z RGEM

That would be a terrible outcome for the London/Corbin area. I keep hoping for a bit of colder air to turn this into more sleet or snow, but we are running out of time 

[jaxjagman]

Our roads are white,looks mostly drizzle and sn,t-dot already looks like a mess on the road,it's gonna get worse as times goes on

[LexingtonTNPatriot]

Reports coming in from Tipton county of 11 degrees and snowing. Ground is white. NWS Memphis retweeted it. 

[jaxjagman]

Brentwood just spent 60k dollars to upgrade the cams and the two close by my house are not even working

[jaxjagman]

GFS is coming in colder for the next event

 

FS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z FEB14   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -9.2     1.1     126    9239    02011                   0.00    
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -6.7    -0.2     126    8399    02013           0.00    0.00    
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -6.5     1.2     127    7000    02012     IP    0.01    0.00    
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -8.8     1.6     127    6646    01010     IP    0.07    0.07    
MON 12Z 15-FEB -10.6    -0.3     126    4275    01014           0.01    0.08    
MON 18Z 15-FEB -10.9    -1.9     126       0    36010     SN    0.28    0.31    
TUE 00Z 16-FEB -11.3    -6.4     124       0    34010           0.18    0.58    
TUE 06Z 16-FEB -13.6   -10.4     123       0    32008     SN    0.00    0.58    
TUE 12Z 16-FEB -18.0   -11.9     123       0    33005           0.00    0.58    
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -9.5    -9.7     124       0    34004     SN    0.00    0.58    
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -9.6    -4.4     125       0    03004           0.00    0.58    
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -9.2    -1.0     127       0    09006           0.00    0.58    
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -8.6    -3.5     127       0    04004     SN    0.01    0.58    
WED 18Z 17-FEB  -3.0    -0.3     129    2764    08010     SN    0.07    0.62    
THU 00Z 18-FEB  -1.8     0.7     130    5192    03009     ZR    0.07    0.63    
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -1.3    -0.1     130    4139    03009     ZR    0.47    1.15    
THU 12Z 18-FEB  -1.7    -0.6     130    3277    34009     ZR    0.26    1.22    
THU 18Z 18-FEB  -1.8    -2.6     128       0    34011     SN    0.20    1.45    
FRI 00Z 19-FEB  -3.2    -7.1     127       0    32009     SN    0.02    1.46    
FRI 06Z 19-FEB -10.0    -6.1     126       0    31007           0.00    1.46    
FRI 12Z 19-FEB -14.3    -7.6     126       0    30005           0.00    1.46    
FRI 18Z 19-FEB  -4.4    -6.5     127       0    25005           0.00    1.46    
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -5.3    -3.5     129       0    19005           0.00    1.42    
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -7.7    -0.6     130    4368    19006           0.00    1.42    
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  -8.5     0.8     130    5542    20006           0.00    1.42    
SAT 18Z 20-FEB  -0.3     1.0     130    6028    21005           0.00    1.31    
SUN 00Z 21-FEB   0.6     1.7     131    9424    22005           0.00    1.05    
SUN 06Z 21-FEB   1.5     0.0     132    9891    14006           0.00    1.01    
SUN 12Z 21-FEB   1.7     0.7     133   10965    16010           0.00    0.89    

[jaxjagman]

Nashville seems close, right now anyways it could be anything,rain or frozen

 

 

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB14   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -5.1     0.8     127    9147    00008                   0.00    
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -0.2     1.5     129    9266    02009           0.00    0.00    
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -0.2     2.2     129    6685    01008           0.00    0.00    
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -2.4     3.4     129    7471    01008     IP    0.06    0.04    
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -3.8     2.1     129    7408    01009     IP    0.06    0.10    
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -3.8     1.1     129    4614    00009     IP    0.07    0.11    
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -5.0     0.1     128    3304    33008     SN    0.53    0.63    
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  -8.0    -4.9     126       0    31006     SN    0.04    0.66    
TUE 12Z 16-FEB -10.9   -11.0     124       0    30005     SN    0.01    0.69    
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -6.7   -10.6     125       0    30005     SN    0.01    0.68    
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -9.0    -8.9     125       0    00004           0.01    0.68    
WED 06Z 17-FEB -11.3    -3.9     126       0    02004           0.00    0.68    
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -8.7    -1.2     127    2025    35003           0.00    0.68    
WED 18Z 17-FEB  -2.5     0.9     129    5751    06004     SN    0.01    0.63    
THU 00Z 18-FEB  -1.4    -0.3     130    4861    04004     SN    0.01    0.55    
THU 06Z 18-FEB   0.2     0.1     130    4604    06005           0.25    0.59    
THU 12Z 18-FEB   1.3     3.9     132    9155    06010     RA    0.91    0.55    
THU 18Z 18-FEB   0.8     1.8     131    7835    33009     RA    0.57    0.44    
FRI 00Z 19-FEB  -3.5    -2.6     128       0    31011     SN    0.07    0.42    
FRI 06Z 19-FEB  -7.4    -8.4     125       0    30008     SN    0.01    0.44    
FRI 12Z 19-FEB -11.3    -9.9     124       0    28007           0.01    0.47    
FRI 18Z 19-FEB  -5.8   -11.2     125       0    27007           0.00    0.45    
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  -6.4    -7.9     127       0    25004           0.00    0.43    
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  -7.9    -5.3     128       0    20005           0.00    0.43    
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  -7.4    -3.0     129       0    20005           0.00    0.43    
SAT 18Z 20-FEB   0.9    -1.5     129     807    24006           0.00    0.33    
SUN 00Z 21-FEB   0.3    -0.7     130    2349    29002           0.00    0.24    
SUN 06Z 21-FEB   0.3     1.1     130    8274    16002           0.00    0.24    
SUN 12Z 21-FEB   0.8    -2.1     131    8378    16005     RA    0.00    0.24  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z GEFS:

 

[jaxjagman]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z GEFS:

 

Majority have a cut off line close to Nashville,not sure what to expect here

[*Flash*]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

Nice! Glad to see you're getting some action already!

[Kentucky]

12z UKMET, unsure how much of this is freezing rain and sleet

 

[Utvols235]

How reliable are some of these models this close? Is it best to follow the hi-Res models at this point? Complete noob speaking here


.

[jaxjagman]

22 minutes ago, Utvols235 said:

How reliable are some of these models this close? Is it best to follow the hi-Res models at this point? Complete noob speaking here


.

Probably better off now going HRRR and RAP, now with this system

[WestTennWX]

Looks like Memphis pushed up the start of the WSW due to impacts from the snow currently falling. Picked up a half inch or so here in the past few hrs.

 

Winter precipitation is already beginning to spread into the
Mid-South this morning. The precipitation is associated with a
weak shortwave that is moving through the area. Most of the
precipitation reports have been in the form of snow, but have
gotten a few sleet reports as well. Went ahead and pushed up the
start time to the Winter Storm Warning as whatever is falling is
sticking to the ground causing impacts. Will update to make some
minor temperature adjustments as well as don`t expect temperatures
to budge much similar to yesterday. Will also let Wind Chill
Advisory expire at 18Z, but will be addressing wind chill concerns
within the Winter Storm Warning as below zero wind chill values
will continue through the storm possibly even longer. Update will
be out shortly.

[Sweetpea Farms]

Forecast gradually improving for Lincoln County, TN, right along the leading edge of this thing. Predicted overnight rainfall has decreased, chance of precip now 55%. Monday is the bulk of it now. Freezing rain morning and then snow afternoon is the most pessimistic outlook I have seen. Still, with overnight lows of 29 and the high tomorrow jus 31, we may end up seeing almost all of it as snow if this holds. Along the AL border like I am, I would expect my impacts to be lower than for the county as a whole.

Currently in southern Lincoln County, seven miles above the AL line: 29 degrees, ground fog/mist, no freezing; winds NNE at 5, barometer steady at 29.95 inHg.

[PowellVolz]

Forecast gradually improving for Lincoln County, TN, right along the leading edge of this thing. Predicted overnight rainfall has decreased, chance of precip now 55%. Monday is the bulk of it now. Freezing rain morning and then snow afternoon is the most pessimistic outlook I have seen. Still, with overnight lows of 29 and the high tomorrow jus 31, we may end up seeing almost all of it as snow if this holds. Along the AL border like I am, I would expect my impacts to be lower than for the county as a whole.
Currently in southern Lincoln County, seven miles above the AL line: 29 degrees, ground fog/mist, no freezing; winds NNE at 5, barometer steady at 29.95 inHg.

You are in probably one of the best places (or worst) for severe storms in Tennessee.


.

[Utvols235]

I’m getting pretty concerned were looking at a big ice event for Nashville.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro:

 

 

sounding just south of Nashville for @jaxjagman