Shocker0 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Wonder how cold it will actually get.Euro showed us getting down to 24 tonight,well that's not going to work out very well,we are sitting at 23 right now 27 in Crossville already too. Another night where they are off by several degrees. Hopefully that trend can continue for a couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro's had a warm bias for as long as i can remember. Don't know why it never was fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Looking at some OBS,Memphis was suppose to get down to 19,they are at 16 right now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 My MRX low tonight is set for 35. It’s 33-34 at several locations around me. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS seems slow,the rapid isnt even updating on my site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 wow,big shift to the east edit:maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS looked slightly slower,less snow in Memphis but it seemed to be enough to pull the ZR line further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS don't have the qpf's the Euro shows,still the ratios would still be decent FS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 00Z FEB14 * - APPROXIMATED SFC SFC 2 M SFC SFC SFC 6 HR TOTAL MXT MNT TMP DEW WIND PCP QPF CLOUD (F) (F) (F) (F) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (PCT) SUN 00Z 14-FEB 21.3 7.7 00007 SUN 06Z 14-FEB 21.3 18.1 18.1 8.1 02011 0.00 100 SUN 12Z 14-FEB 18.0 14.4 14.4 4.1 02012 0.00 86 SUN 18Z 14-FEB 22.0 14.1 22.0 5.1 02013 0.00 100 MON 00Z 15-FEB 26.2 19.7 19.7 15.4 01013 IP 0.05 85 MON 06Z 15-FEB 19.6 15.2 15.2 11.5 00010 IP 0.12 100 MON 12Z 15-FEB 15.1 11.0 11.1 6.7 36010 SN 0.02 100 MON 18Z 15-FEB 12.8 10.0 12.8 9.9 36010 SN 0.15 100 TUE 00Z 16-FEB 15.1 12.7 12.8 9.7 35010 SN 0.09 100 TUE 06Z 16-FEB 12.6 8.2 8.2 5.0 34007 0.00 90 TUE 12Z 16-FEB 8.2 4.6 4.6 1.2 35006 0.00 97 TUE 18Z 16-FEB 16.0 3.9 16.0 10.9 35005 0.00 97 WED 00Z 17-FEB 19.4 15.6 15.6 13.0 04004 0.00 100 WED 06Z 17-FEB 15.7 12.5 13.3 10.6 07007 0.00 97 WED 12Z 17-FEB 15.4 13.3 14.2 12.0 01004 0.00 100 WED 18Z 17-FEB 24.4 14.2 24.4 22.2 05008 0.01 100 THU 00Z 18-FEB 29.8 24.4 28.9 28.1 06009 SN 0.09 100 THU 06Z 18-FEB 32.4 29.0 32.4 32.3 05007 RA 1.02 100 THU 12Z 18-FEB 34.3 30.6 30.6 29.9 33010 ZR 0.46 100 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS rolls east pretty far south then just hits the breaks and shoots north at 40 or 50mph with the low. That floods warmth up the eastern valley and its faster with less precip for the western half of the state. It's ridiculous how far apart models are on surface details and tracks 48 hours out. It never used to be this hard for models to get a track down it seems like. Maybe there are just more models with more solutions these days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Canadian maintains awesomeness for the storm. The midweek would be a flooder. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Uh ok, whatever lessens the ice impact 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kentucky said: Uh ok, whatever lessens the ice impact Most of that should be IP where you are at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 It's liable to be wrong but there's not a more steady model than the UKIE with this. It's exactly the same every run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, John1122 said: It's liable to be wrong but there's not a more steady model than the UKIE with this. It's exactly the same every run. It's been locked for days now, hasn't really budged 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I don't have the panel by panel access to the UK like Holston but it has snow or frozen with the second system too. I think all frozen may be snow on this map. Not 100 percent sure. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Most of that should be IP where you are at Figure I'll be near the bullseye 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 21 minutes ago, John1122 said: It's liable to be wrong but there's not a more steady model than the UKIE with this. It's exactly the same every run. Yeah. It's been locked in for days. Right or wrong it's waffled less than about any other model. Hopefully it's not on crack. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro upped the ice in the mid valley and snow totals were down a bit as a result. A bit warmer in the east without any ice down in the Knox area like there was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 You won't see this very often. Also as a note, Louisiana has had some areas with over 12 inches of snow already and this beast is headed their way. Crazy that they also got blasted in 2018 with big snows. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Overnight UKMET: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
david30 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Overnight UKMET: Woke up to another low temp bust, down to 20 with first precip on the approach from SW. looks like we got that cooling trend I was looking for up above. The forecast now calls for up to 6 inches with 7 on the high end. Don’t think I’ve ever witnessed a storm this large with temps like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6z Euro. jogged a bit west: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Officially Ice Storm Warning for Whitley, saying this storm will be a bit Windy.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 @Blue MoonWell, I'd wait and see what 12z does. That will have some RAOB data in it. I know some mets make fun of waiting for that data, but apparently it can have an impact, as we saw in the last storm. We even saw yesterday that Mark J from NWS Louisville was favoring the 0/12z suites. All that being said, it could be legit. swinging back NW a bit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LexingtonTNPatriot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 NWS Memphis Is saying 15:1 ratios instead of 10:1 from their discussion this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 It will be interesting to see how these ratios come into play. It is so freaking cold (8 degrees with a -6 wind chill this morning) that any bit of moisture is squeezed out as snow. Steady flurries/light snow overnight has already covered the roads here in Obion County. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Conditions this morning at 8:23 a.m. in southern Lincoln County, 7 miles above Bama: Light ground fog with no freezing of roads or surfaces. 26 degrees, undisturbed ground is frozen, winds ENE at 2-6 mph. Barometer 29.97 inHg and rising just a bit. My county remains right on the edge of a significant ice storm, but is barely in the minimal effects category right now. Of course, TV is going off like it is the start of WW III. The warm line for this event will be just 59 miles from me in Scottsboro, AL, (see my location on map) where only rain is forecast. What we actually get will be a matter of a few degrees temp. If its gonna dump, I'd rather have snow, please. Currently, I expect light icing here overnight to about a quarter inch maximum, then changing over to snow tomorrow morning sometime. Areas of northern Lincoln County could see 3-5 inches but where I am I expect around an inch of slick to be deposited on the ground. We'll see what this afternoon's info brings. Grabbed the neglected snow shovel off the hook in the shop this morning to put it on the porch, stacked more firewood at the door in case we lose power, brought in some cat food for the feral farm cats so we can feed them off the porch tomorrow instead of at the shop building. The cows will get an extra bale of hay this afternoon, then what else can I do but watch models and hope we get largely missed? Everybody stay safe. Tomorrow sounds like a good day to work a puzzle by the fire or something. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 hours ago, John1122 said: You won't see this very often. Also as a note, Louisiana has had some areas with over 12 inches of snow already and this beast is headed their way. Crazy that they also got blasted in 2018 with big snows. This is a good map to point how how DUMB using TV markets as dividing lines is. See the border counties in the circle on my copy? They get lumped in with Huntsville NWS and cut out of TN NWS forecasting. No way things are gonna change there right at the county lines. I have to deal with this kind of stuff all the time, living in Lincoln County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CG2 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 For posterity - a wider view. MJO phase 7(almost 6), long standing -NAO(but quickly rising), very cold NA temps which have plunged into the central US, and cold is banked up against the Plateau. What a weather map from the front range of the Rockies to the Apps and/or Plateau!!!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, Kentucky said: Rgem caves As a heads-up, those are 6z. Pivotal gets me all of the time when it switches runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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