AMZ8990 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Looks like most of the west Tn has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning now. Pretty long warning timeframe too, 12pm Sunday to 12AM Tuesday morning. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Hard not to like the 18z RGEM sounding over central MS, upstream of the plateau: Look at that forcing in the DGZ. That’s practically in my backyard! Is that a sounding for snow or freezing rain? Not too good at reading these things yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnwxwatcher Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I think its pretty close to the eastern edge of the plateau. Temp dropped from 43 to 36 as I drove from Oak Ridge to Mossy Grove (just south of Wartburg). Thanks! Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 That’s practically in my backyard! Is that a sounding for snow or freezing rain? Not too good at reading these things yet. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MSSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: . Ahhhh! Thanks! I didn’t look hard enough! (Goes back to lurking) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z Euro: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This is basically a mini Jan 1918 pattern it looks like. 1918 was colder and will probably be snowier too but it was very West vs East based. Nashville and Memphis were colder and more snowy by double to almost triple vs Knoxville. They had -10 degree type cold and spent around two weeks below freezing while Knoxville would be on the freezing rain side of the boundary then the cold would crash back in behind it. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 22 minutes ago, John1122 said: This is basically a mini Jan 1918 pattern it looks like. 1918 was colder and will probably be snowier too but it was very West vs East based. Nashville and Memphis were colder and more snowy by double to almost triple vs Knoxville. They had -10 degree type cold and spent around two weeks below freezing while Knoxville would be on the freezing rain side of the boundary then the cold would crash back in behind it. You are a got dang walking talking weather encyclopedia man. I'm constantly impressed, that is amazing! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 18z EPS members Just for the pure weenage of it, the 18z EPS mean through 144 hours: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 SREF H5 and vorticity trend for the past 6 runs: Looks deeper for 0z than any of the past 6. Will this mean a deeper dig for the energy on the NAM? Colder for eastern areas? It seems to work only 75% of the time. We'll know in about an hour. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Awesome euro ensembles- thanks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: SREF H5 and vorticity trend for the past 6 runs: Looks deeper for 0z than any of the past 6. Will this mean a deeper dig for the energy on the NAM? Colder for eastern areas? It seems to work only 75% of the time. We'll know in about an hour. Based off the depth of the cold banked against the plateau on soundings.. the Eastern valley is literally only a 100' or so from being a sig. ice event vs mainly cold rain. GFS/NAM doesn't pull enough thicker cold to clear the plateau until the system has passed (due to track)..Euro would be very similar to the RGEM/CMC except it has multiple lows vs one primary (@850), which mess it up for one frame. RGEM would be more ice than depicted, once that cold tops the plateau it will rush into the valley. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 West and Middle TN are about as locked in as you can get (barring a giant shift SE which would hurt western areas), the big question mark is the plateau/valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Last time the euro was this locked in for me was January 2016. It was showing the same 8-9 inches and I ended up with a foot. I’ll be stoked with anything 3 inches or over since it’s been almost 3 years since I’ve seen at least 2 inches from one storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Olhausen said: Last time the euro was this locked in for me was January 2016. It was showing the same 8-9 inches and I ended up with a foot. I’ll be stoked with anything 3 inches or over since it’s been almost 3 years since I’ve seen at least 2 inches from one storm. I could easily see somewhere between Jackson and Nashville topping 12"..best ratios and qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 In a normal situation plenty of people would get great ratios at those temps, but due to upper level warming the ratios won't be what they normally would be with temps in the lower 20s The best ratios will probably be Clarksville westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 to 8 would be great in Franklin - Might actually use my snow shovel that looks brand new that I bought 10 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Through Monday at 10am the NAM is about 2 degrees cooler across the Eastern Valley areas and sub freezing is sliding more off the Plateau. Northern Alabama areas on the line are also slightly cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Tic tic tic colder and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The Low is way north vs 18z again on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 hours ago, AMZ8990 said: I was trying to think when the last 5-6+ event was for Memphis and the surrounding areas. I feel like it’s been atleast 21 years cause I don’t ever remember a storm that big in my time living here. Not sure what happened In the 90’s but I’m pretty sure 1985 had a 10+ event in Memphis that year. I know northwest Tn has had some big events in the past 10-20 years though, especially the TN/Kentucky border counties. The last major one for me (Nw TN) was March 5th of 2015, we got slammed with around 12-15 inches. There were a couple of back to back systems that week as well if I remember it correctly. Measured this off my sidewalk this next morning.....maybe a repeat coming?? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Great run for western Middle and west Tennessee but too warm and too north for people once you get east of Nashville. Big icy run for say Nashville but only about 2.7 inches of snow depth. Until any other guidance joins it, I'm just going to assume it's the NAM doing NAM things. It never did show me getting much of any snow during the Christmas eve event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The 51 hour RAP is basically snow for anyone who gets frozen after some freezing rain/sleet. Kind of surprising to me. It even has an inch or two around Roane to Anderson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 My RAP sounding Monday afternoon. I'd be overjoyed to get 3-4 inches of snow instead of .5 ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 My RAP sounding Monday afternoon. I'd be overjoyed to get 3-4 inches of snow instead of .5 ice.Interesting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, John1122 said: The 51 hour RAP is basically snow for anyone who gets frozen after some freezing rain/sleet. Kind of surprising to me. It even has an inch or two around Roane to Anderson. If the cold can penetrate enough to give BHam 6" and New Orleans a major ice storm like the RAP showed..the valley would score as well. Has the bulk of the precip lagging behind the low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Interesting . It actually put's out a snow sounding at 10pm right over Powell. 36 degrees but the upper levels are sub freezing all the way to a couple hundred feet above the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The 48 hour HRRR isn't too dissimilar to the RAP. Slightly warmer and slightly faster but upper level support for snow from the Plateau and west. Has some sleet over my area too but only light freezing rain and then 2-3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 48 minutes ago, Olhausen said: Last time the euro was this locked in for me was January 2016. It was showing the same 8-9 inches and I ended up with a foot. I’ll be stoked with anything 3 inches or over since it’s been almost 3 years since I’ve seen at least 2 inches from one storm. I vividly remember the pictures of the epic pancake on your porch table. Helluva storm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Wonder how cold it will actually get.Euro showed us getting down to 24 tonight,well that's not going to work out very well,we are sitting at 23 right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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