Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, PowellVolz said: I watched paint dry. . I've not missed 3 pages of discussion on here in like 5 months, lol. I'm just gonna wait for the 18z Euro and pretend no other runs happened. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Well, y'all know I'm a sucker for the Ukie, so here is the extended 12z: Lawd have mercy for Middle and west TN: keep in mind that snow map is through hr 168. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I for the life of me don't know what to make of the winter storm watch for my area. It ends at 7pm Monday evening. The worst weather is forecast to arrive after 7pm Monday evening. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Been busy just catching up . Man it looks like the cold is still over performing - forecast today here in Franklin was 34 to 36- peaked at 28 and now it’s down to 27 with snow flurries on and off. Good to see the Nam over the spine on the Apps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I'm equally baffled that they said the system was trending warmer for Monday into Tuesday. The Euro, which they'd been whipping like a dead horse when it was the warmest model put the Central valley around Knox, Loudon, Jefferson and Sevier into play. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Hard not to like the 18z RGEM sounding over central MS, upstream of the plateau: Look at that forcing in the DGZ. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I guess MRX is in with the NAM as the warming trend. Though it was actually colder at 18z vs 12z and is on an island with the low track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 440 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2021 Isentropic ascent will be ongoing at the start of the period with a mixture of snow/sleet/freezing rain early Monday, transitioning to more freezing drizzle during the day as the better lift moves northward. However, a shortwave trough with strong diffluent flow will push into the region Monday evening with precipitation rates quickly increasing. There is even some negative EPV aloft that could aid in precipitation rates. With this said, models continue to trend towards more snow potential in the northwest portion of the CWA with more ice to the southeast. Somewhere in the middle could see a combination. Given the potential QPF and good chances of meeting ice or snow criteria for a warning, opted to go ahead and toss the remaining areas of eastern Kentucky into the winter storm watch. The snow could be very wet given the warm nose fairly close to the 0C isotherm aloft. Precipitation does look to come to an end fairly quickly Tuesday morning, but colder air will filter into the region along with some flurries. A brief lull in the weather is expected fro Tuesday through Wednesday. Another system will take aim on the area Wednesday night into Thursday. The ECMWF maintains its colder solution while the GFS is much warmer. Thus, too much spread to dive into any details at this point, outside to say there may be a chance for more wintry weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monoptn Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 In Clarksville today my weather station recored a high since midnight of 25.2, and it has declined to 22.8 now at about 4pm. https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/6e898758833cf9e8aea47c118ea4850a/graphs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Man, what a jet buckling. A baroclinic leaf, with someone in TN in a perfect areas for ye olden fatties: 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I guess MRX is in with the NAM as the warming trend. Though it was actually colder at 18z vs 12z and is on an island with the low track. I really don’t know what they look at sometimes. If anyone of the mods went warmer it could be the NAM but they wrote the AFD like several mods have been trending all day. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: I really don’t know what they look at sometimes. If anyone of the mods went warmer it could be the NAM but they wrote the AFD like several mods have been trending all day. . The SREF is warm, so that probably sealed the deal for them. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Current conditions here after freezing mist/freezing fog. Makes for nice trees but nothing going on the ground currently. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnwxwatcher Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I haven't had a lot of time recently to follow here. But I just wondered where the current boundary is for the artic air/front that I have seen mentioned? Just looking at the current frontal map, it is difficult to tell exactly. I presume that it is backed up on the plateau area... but, just wondering. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Current conditions here after freezing mist/freezing fog. Makes for nice trees but nothing going on the ground currently. Good thing you got some pictures. That underbrush will be budding by Tuesday afternoon. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nice 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I might faint: " The sleet could be heavy at times. " from my point and click forecast for Monday night. I've haven't seen "heavy at times" for anything other than rain in like 20 years...I think. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 National Weather Service Nashville TN 244 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 .DISCUSSION... Ok, here we go getting ready to venture into an upcoming winter wonderland. Forecast is problematic, to say the least. Biggest problem is the precip type. It is certainly going to be sufficiently cold enough to support an all snow event west of middle TN. Across our Plateau, some warmer air may allow rain to occur for an uncertain duration. In between, a mixed bag. Details will follow later in this discussion. Another cold day today. The freezing drizzle has ended and that allowed for the advisory to terminate at 18Z as scheduled. Hrrr does elude toward some patchy drizzle perhaps across eastern zones late tonight. Other models not quite in line so I will include this light precip. On Sunday, temps will again struggle and will only warm into the upper 20s northwest, to the mid 30s along and east of I-65. By late in the afternoon we will begin to see the approaching 1st wave of the winter weather assault. Sunday evening, the wintry precip will move in. Warm noses are indicated with a variety of the models. Thus, sleet and freezing rain will be the main types. Amounts with the 1st wave will not be too heavy. Looks like mostly sleet across the northwest where temps will be colder. to the east and southeast however, we will be looking at between one tenth and two tenths of an inch of ice by midday Monday. On Monday afternoon, the second and much stronger intrusion of wintry precip will arrive. Note that the arctic air at that time will begin to exert more of an influence across all areas west of the Plateau. With the depth of the cold air on the increase, the fcst is looking snowier. Furthermore, with temperatures Monday afternoon and evening ranging between 17F and 22F in our far northwest, ratios of a little greater than 10: 1 can be expected for that area. For that reason, the far northwest snow totals will reach up to 6 inches. I will be reissuing the winter storm watch. However, I will need to segment this product into 3 separate groups to cover the rather wide range in precip type and amounts. Across the Plateau, warmer air aloft will lead to warmer sfc temps for that area. They will still receive some ice and a little snow but amounts over there will be rather low. For the central areas including Nashville, we are looking at snowfall amounts of 3-4 inches and also ice accumulation of one to two tenths of an inch. Note that with this storm system, a high multitude of models support liq qpf amounts of nearly 0.75". Furthermore, this significant qpf amount is supported by a rather large coverage area. This means that this is a rather high confidence event in that our winter warning criteria is nearly a slam dunk. The Plateau is the only area where warning criteria may not be met. You see, that warm nose over the lower elevations, is more in place at the surface for the Plateau counties. The bulk of this winter weather system is low level driven. Again, its a little too soon for the warning, but look for it in the next 12-18 hours or so. Look for the snowfall to decrease in coverage from west to east late monday night and into Tuesday morning, when it finally ends. In the ext fcst, we may have another round of winter weather Wed nt into Thursday. Lots of uncertainty at this point. The track will be critical. Main temperature points worth discussion, teens for lows Tues and Wed. Highs will generally be in the 30s through the extended period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, tnwxwatcher said: I haven't had a lot of time recently to follow here. But I just wondered where the current boundary is for the artic air/front that I have seen mentioned? Just looking at the current frontal map, it is difficult to tell exactly. I presume that it is backed up on the plateau area... but, just wondering. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk I think its pretty close to the eastern edge of the plateau. Temp dropped from 43 to 36 as I drove from Oak Ridge to Mossy Grove (just south of Wartburg). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nice. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Still time for another tick east - the cold push is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The Australian forecast model looks good through the next 168 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kentucky said: For anyone wondering who Mark J is, he is a forecaster at NWS Louisville who sometimes writes parts of their AFDs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I’ll push all in on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The Australian forecast model looks good through the next 168 hours Goodness Gracious!! Hahaha. Getting anywhere on I-40 would be a disaster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Several of the 18z GEFS members are coming in a wee bit (and I don't mean that sarcastically) east of the OP: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nash_LSU Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Several of the 18z GEFS members are coming in a wee bit (and I don't mean that sarcastically) east of the OP: I like every one of those individuals. Not often that happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nice I’ll take a 19 and 27 ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @WestTennWX can you add the dates of this storm into the thread name please. 2/14-2/16 etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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