Kentucky Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: As a heads-up, those are 6z. Pivotal gets me all of the time when it switches runs. Yep, it got me. will update to 12z when it finishes. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Need some good runs today not liking the western trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Light snow is now falling at my house this morning. Concrete walkway, driveway, grill and all that good stuff is all white now. Starting to see minor accumulation in the grass as well. It’s a beautiful morning! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12Z RGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Kentucky said: Yep, it got me. will update to 12z when it finishes. Thanks For whatever reason, it switches to the most complete run instead of the run in progress. Hiccup in the programming or design. Gets me ALL the time. WxBell has a similar glitch where it will switch to off-run modeling for the Euro when I toggle between it(0z or 12z) and another model. Drives me crazy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kentucky said: 12Z RGEM They are running out of deep colors of blue/purple for ice! Memphis is close to a huge run there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: For whatever reason, it switches to the most complete run instead of the run in progress. Hiccup in the programming or design. Gets me ALL the time. WxBell has a similar glitch where it will switch to off-run modeling for the Euro when I toggle between it(0z or 12z) and another model. Drives me crazy! indeed, so annoying. thanks for heads up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Light snow is now falling at my house this morning. Concrete walkway, driveway, grill and all that good stuff is all white now. Starting to see minor accumulation in the grass as well. It’s a beautiful morning! Boy, I'd sure take an all-snow event down here for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: They are running out of deep colors of blue/purple for ice! Memphis is close to a huge run there. I like this one better than the last one. Shows less ice where I am in Lincoln County. I am still guessing it will be milder on the edge where I am than predicted. We'll keep power but it will be slick. I've gotta take a look at the warm side of this thing to see how much push it has. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 One thing that’s a fact.... whatever falls ain’t melting and there shouldn’t be much compaction with how dry it will be. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Memphis friend reports snowfall there that started about an hour ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluegrassweather71 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 35 minutes ago, Kentucky said: 12Z RGEM That would be a terrible outcome for the London/Corbin area. I keep hoping for a bit of colder air to turn this into more sleet or snow, but we are running out of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Our roads are white,looks mostly drizzle and sn,t-dot already looks like a mess on the road,it's gonna get worse as times goes on 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LexingtonTNPatriot Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Reports coming in from Tipton county of 11 degrees and snowing. Ground is white. NWS Memphis retweeted it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Brentwood just spent 60k dollars to upgrade the cams and the two close by my house are not even working 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS is coming in colder for the next event FS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB14 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 14-FEB -9.2 1.1 126 9239 02011 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -6.7 -0.2 126 8399 02013 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB -6.5 1.2 127 7000 02012 IP 0.01 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -8.8 1.6 127 6646 01010 IP 0.07 0.07 MON 12Z 15-FEB -10.6 -0.3 126 4275 01014 0.01 0.08 MON 18Z 15-FEB -10.9 -1.9 126 0 36010 SN 0.28 0.31 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -11.3 -6.4 124 0 34010 0.18 0.58 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -13.6 -10.4 123 0 32008 SN 0.00 0.58 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -18.0 -11.9 123 0 33005 0.00 0.58 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -9.5 -9.7 124 0 34004 SN 0.00 0.58 WED 00Z 17-FEB -9.6 -4.4 125 0 03004 0.00 0.58 WED 06Z 17-FEB -9.2 -1.0 127 0 09006 0.00 0.58 WED 12Z 17-FEB -8.6 -3.5 127 0 04004 SN 0.01 0.58 WED 18Z 17-FEB -3.0 -0.3 129 2764 08010 SN 0.07 0.62 THU 00Z 18-FEB -1.8 0.7 130 5192 03009 ZR 0.07 0.63 THU 06Z 18-FEB -1.3 -0.1 130 4139 03009 ZR 0.47 1.15 THU 12Z 18-FEB -1.7 -0.6 130 3277 34009 ZR 0.26 1.22 THU 18Z 18-FEB -1.8 -2.6 128 0 34011 SN 0.20 1.45 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -3.2 -7.1 127 0 32009 SN 0.02 1.46 FRI 06Z 19-FEB -10.0 -6.1 126 0 31007 0.00 1.46 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -14.3 -7.6 126 0 30005 0.00 1.46 FRI 18Z 19-FEB -4.4 -6.5 127 0 25005 0.00 1.46 SAT 00Z 20-FEB -5.3 -3.5 129 0 19005 0.00 1.42 SAT 06Z 20-FEB -7.7 -0.6 130 4368 19006 0.00 1.42 SAT 12Z 20-FEB -8.5 0.8 130 5542 20006 0.00 1.42 SAT 18Z 20-FEB -0.3 1.0 130 6028 21005 0.00 1.31 SUN 00Z 21-FEB 0.6 1.7 131 9424 22005 0.00 1.05 SUN 06Z 21-FEB 1.5 0.0 132 9891 14006 0.00 1.01 SUN 12Z 21-FEB 1.7 0.7 133 10965 16010 0.00 0.89 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Nashville seems close, right now anyways it could be anything,rain or frozen GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: BNA LAT= 36.12 LON= -86.68 ELE= 591 12Z FEB14 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) SUN 12Z 14-FEB -5.1 0.8 127 9147 00008 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -0.2 1.5 129 9266 02009 0.00 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB -0.2 2.2 129 6685 01008 0.00 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -2.4 3.4 129 7471 01008 IP 0.06 0.04 MON 12Z 15-FEB -3.8 2.1 129 7408 01009 IP 0.06 0.10 MON 18Z 15-FEB -3.8 1.1 129 4614 00009 IP 0.07 0.11 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -5.0 0.1 128 3304 33008 SN 0.53 0.63 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -8.0 -4.9 126 0 31006 SN 0.04 0.66 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -10.9 -11.0 124 0 30005 SN 0.01 0.69 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -6.7 -10.6 125 0 30005 SN 0.01 0.68 WED 00Z 17-FEB -9.0 -8.9 125 0 00004 0.01 0.68 WED 06Z 17-FEB -11.3 -3.9 126 0 02004 0.00 0.68 WED 12Z 17-FEB -8.7 -1.2 127 2025 35003 0.00 0.68 WED 18Z 17-FEB -2.5 0.9 129 5751 06004 SN 0.01 0.63 THU 00Z 18-FEB -1.4 -0.3 130 4861 04004 SN 0.01 0.55 THU 06Z 18-FEB 0.2 0.1 130 4604 06005 0.25 0.59 THU 12Z 18-FEB 1.3 3.9 132 9155 06010 RA 0.91 0.55 THU 18Z 18-FEB 0.8 1.8 131 7835 33009 RA 0.57 0.44 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -3.5 -2.6 128 0 31011 SN 0.07 0.42 FRI 06Z 19-FEB -7.4 -8.4 125 0 30008 SN 0.01 0.44 FRI 12Z 19-FEB -11.3 -9.9 124 0 28007 0.01 0.47 FRI 18Z 19-FEB -5.8 -11.2 125 0 27007 0.00 0.45 SAT 00Z 20-FEB -6.4 -7.9 127 0 25004 0.00 0.43 SAT 06Z 20-FEB -7.9 -5.3 128 0 20005 0.00 0.43 SAT 12Z 20-FEB -7.4 -3.0 129 0 20005 0.00 0.43 SAT 18Z 20-FEB 0.9 -1.5 129 807 24006 0.00 0.33 SUN 00Z 21-FEB 0.3 -0.7 130 2349 29002 0.00 0.24 SUN 06Z 21-FEB 0.3 1.1 130 8274 16002 0.00 0.24 SUN 12Z 21-FEB 0.8 -2.1 131 8378 16005 RA 0.00 0.24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z GEFS: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 12z GEFS: Majority have a cut off line close to Nashville,not sure what to expect here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said: Nice! Glad to see you're getting some action already! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z UKMET, unsure how much of this is freezing rain and sleet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 How reliable are some of these models this close? Is it best to follow the hi-Res models at this point? Complete noob speaking here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 22 minutes ago, Utvols235 said: How reliable are some of these models this close? Is it best to follow the hi-Res models at this point? Complete noob speaking here . Probably better off now going HRRR and RAP, now with this system 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Looks like Memphis pushed up the start of the WSW due to impacts from the snow currently falling. Picked up a half inch or so here in the past few hrs. Winter precipitation is already beginning to spread into the Mid-South this morning. The precipitation is associated with a weak shortwave that is moving through the area. Most of the precipitation reports have been in the form of snow, but have gotten a few sleet reports as well. Went ahead and pushed up the start time to the Winter Storm Warning as whatever is falling is sticking to the ground causing impacts. Will update to make some minor temperature adjustments as well as don`t expect temperatures to budge much similar to yesterday. Will also let Wind Chill Advisory expire at 18Z, but will be addressing wind chill concerns within the Winter Storm Warning as below zero wind chill values will continue through the storm possibly even longer. Update will be out shortly. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sweetpea Farms Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Forecast gradually improving for Lincoln County, TN, right along the leading edge of this thing. Predicted overnight rainfall has decreased, chance of precip now 55%. Monday is the bulk of it now. Freezing rain morning and then snow afternoon is the most pessimistic outlook I have seen. Still, with overnight lows of 29 and the high tomorrow jus 31, we may end up seeing almost all of it as snow if this holds. Along the AL border like I am, I would expect my impacts to be lower than for the county as a whole. Currently in southern Lincoln County, seven miles above the AL line: 29 degrees, ground fog/mist, no freezing; winds NNE at 5, barometer steady at 29.95 inHg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Forecast gradually improving for Lincoln County, TN, right along the leading edge of this thing. Predicted overnight rainfall has decreased, chance of precip now 55%. Monday is the bulk of it now. Freezing rain morning and then snow afternoon is the most pessimistic outlook I have seen. Still, with overnight lows of 29 and the high tomorrow jus 31, we may end up seeing almost all of it as snow if this holds. Along the AL border like I am, I would expect my impacts to be lower than for the county as a whole. Currently in southern Lincoln County, seven miles above the AL line: 29 degrees, ground fog/mist, no freezing; winds NNE at 5, barometer steady at 29.95 inHg.You are in probably one of the best places (or worst) for severe storms in Tennessee. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I’m getting pretty concerned were looking at a big ice event for Nashville. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12z Euro: sounding just south of Nashville for @jaxjagman 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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