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2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold


WestTennWX
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1 minute ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is awesome for the middle and western area. Also folks in Knoxville, it joined the RGEM in giving freezing rain to you. 

Yeah it looks even colder in Memphis,dont look at the qpf's but a change over from IP to sn would happen around 12z to 15z

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z FEB13
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC     3/6    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     HR      LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -6.4     3.3     127    9096    00007                           
SAT 15Z 13-FEB  -5.7     1.0     127    9369    00009                           
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  -2.9    -0.1     127    9431    36010                           
SAT 21Z 13-FEB  -0.4    -0.7     128    9563    35010           0.00            
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  -2.8    -2.7     127    9395    01008           0.00            
SUN 03Z 14-FEB  -4.4    -1.6     127    8962    02010           0.00            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -5.4    -0.2     128    8917    01010           0.00            
SUN 09Z 14-FEB  -6.7    -0.4     127    8814    02010           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -7.4    -0.3     127    9202    02010           0.00            
SUN 15Z 14-FEB  -5.9    -0.5     127    9059    01013           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -1.7    -0.8     127    8068    02012           0.00            
SUN 21Z 14-FEB  -1.4    -0.8     128    7850    01012           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -2.8    -0.8     127    5907    36011           0.00            
MON 03Z 15-FEB  -5.1    -0.8     127    3250    01011           0.04            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -6.3    -1.4     127    6092    01011           0.06            
MON 09Z 15-FEB  -7.8    -1.8     126    6851    01010           0.00            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -9.2    -1.8     126    5509    01012           0.01            
MON 15Z 15-FEB -10.1    -2.8     126       0    01010           0.10            
MON 18Z 15-FEB -10.8    -3.3     126       0    35010           0.43            
MON 21Z 15-FEB -10.8    -4.3     125       0    35011           0.29            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB -10.6    -5.9     125       0    35010           0.34            
TUE 03Z 16-FEB -10.8    -7.0     124       0    35009           0.02          
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4 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Yeah it looks even colder in Memphis,dont look at the qpf's but a change over from IP to sn would happen around 12z to 15z

 


ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z FEB13
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC     3/6    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     HR      LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -6.4     3.3     127    9096    00007                           
SAT 15Z 13-FEB  -5.7     1.0     127    9369    00009                           
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  -2.9    -0.1     127    9431    36010                           
SAT 21Z 13-FEB  -0.4    -0.7     128    9563    35010           0.00            
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  -2.8    -2.7     127    9395    01008           0.00            
SUN 03Z 14-FEB  -4.4    -1.6     127    8962    02010           0.00            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -5.4    -0.2     128    8917    01010           0.00            
SUN 09Z 14-FEB  -6.7    -0.4     127    8814    02010           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -7.4    -0.3     127    9202    02010           0.00            
SUN 15Z 14-FEB  -5.9    -0.5     127    9059    01013           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -1.7    -0.8     127    8068    02012           0.00            
SUN 21Z 14-FEB  -1.4    -0.8     128    7850    01012           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -2.8    -0.8     127    5907    36011           0.00            
MON 03Z 15-FEB  -5.1    -0.8     127    3250    01011           0.04            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -6.3    -1.4     127    6092    01011           0.06            
MON 09Z 15-FEB  -7.8    -1.8     126    6851    01010           0.00            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -9.2    -1.8     126    5509    01012           0.01            
MON 15Z 15-FEB -10.1    -2.8     126       0    01010           0.10            
MON 18Z 15-FEB -10.8    -3.3     126       0    35010           0.43            
MON 21Z 15-FEB -10.8    -4.3     125       0    35011           0.29            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB -10.6    -5.9     125       0    35010           0.34            
TUE 03Z 16-FEB -10.8    -7.0     124       0    35009           0.02          

How do I pull this for GLH?  Thanks

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12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is awesome for the middle and western area. Also folks in Knoxville, it joined the RGEM in giving freezing rain to you. 

Yeah it was, 9inch range on top of my house that run.  Pretty wide swath of 8-9 in Fayette and Hardeman counties with the 8 inch line on the Fayette/Shelby county border.  Overall, that’s probably the best run of the Euro we could ever ask for at this stage for the mid south and west Tn.  

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16 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The Euro is awesome for the middle and western area. Also folks in Knoxville, it joined the RGEM in giving freezing rain to you. 

I was in your neck of the woods driving last night.When i started to get to the upslopes it was 27,when i got to the bottom it was 40...lol...quite a contrast to temps

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20 minutes ago, david30 said:

How do I pull this for GLH?  Thanks

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GLH    LAT=  33.48 LON=  -90.98 ELE=   131

                                            12Z FEB13
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC     3/6    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     HR      LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -4.8     5.5     129   10085    01010                           
SAT 15Z 13-FEB  -3.0     5.1     129   10083    00010                           
SAT 18Z 13-FEB   0.8     2.7     129   10245    36010                           
SAT 21Z 13-FEB   2.3     3.7     130   10076    01009           0.00            
SUN 00Z 14-FEB   0.4     1.7     129    9670    01010           0.00            
SUN 03Z 14-FEB  -1.2     1.9     129    9666    03010           0.00            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -2.6     3.3     129    9668    02010           0.00            
SUN 09Z 14-FEB  -3.1     2.8     129    9697    02010           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -4.5     2.9     129    8881    02010           0.00            
SUN 15Z 14-FEB  -3.0     3.0     129    9090    02012           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -1.0     1.7     129    8932    02011           0.00            
SUN 21Z 14-FEB  -0.7     1.7     129    8939    01010           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -2.0     1.9     129    8187    36009           0.03            
MON 03Z 15-FEB  -2.4     1.9     128    7302    00010           0.01            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -3.5     3.9     129    7524    02011           0.01            
MON 09Z 15-FEB  -4.4     2.9     128    8608    01012           0.00            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -5.8    -0.1     127    8187    36012           0.08            
MON 15Z 15-FEB  -6.9    -0.9     127     312    36012           0.30            
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -8.5    -1.6     127      13    35011           0.76            
MON 21Z 15-FEB  -8.8    -3.0     126      12    35009           0.16            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -9.1    -4.4     125       0    34009           0.17     

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: GLH    LAT=  33.48 LON=  -90.98 ELE=   131

                                            12Z FEB13
                 2 M     2 M     2 M     SFC     SFC    6 HR    FROZN   TOTAL
                 MXT     MNT     TMP     DEW     WIND    QPF     PCP    CLOUD
                 (F)     (F)     (F)     (F)    (KTS)   (IN)    (IN)    (PCT)
SAT 12Z 13-FEB                  23.3    14.7    01010                     56    
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  33.2    23.2    33.5    19.2    36010                     88    
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  36.2    32.9    32.7    14.4    01010   0.00    0.00      98    
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  32.7    27.4    27.3    11.2    02010   0.00    0.00      69    
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  27.3    24.1    24.0     9.7    02010   0.00    0.00      92    
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  30.3    23.6    30.2    14.9    02011   0.00    0.00     100    
MON 00Z 15-FEB  31.0    28.5    28.5    15.4    36009   0.03    0.00     100    
MON 06Z 15-FEB  28.4    25.8    25.8    16.0    02011   0.01    0.00      99    
MON 12Z 15-FEB  25.7    21.6    21.5    16.3    36012   0.08    0.01     100    
MON 18Z 15-FEB  21.5    16.7    16.6    12.1    35011   0.76    0.69      99    
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  16.7    15.6    15.6     9.8    34009   0.17    0.17      93    
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  15.6    12.4    12.2     7.6    34005   0.00    0.00       5    
TUE 12Z 16-FEB  12.2     7.7     7.6     3.4    34005   0.00    0.00       0    
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  17.4     5.0    17.6     8.0    03004   0.00    0.00      92    
WED 00Z 17-FEB  21.9    17.0    16.7    10.7    07004   0.00    0.00      82    
WED 06Z 17-FEB  16.8    11.1    11.3     6.6    02004   0.00    0.00      34    
WED 12Z 17-FEB  14.0    11.1    14.1    10.2    03005   0.00    0.00      39    
WED 18Z 17-FEB  26.9    13.9    27.1    20.2    04008   0.00    0.00     100    
THU 00Z 18-FEB  29.9    27.2    28.8    25.4    03010   0.08    0.08     100    
THU 06Z 18-FEB  29.0    28.5    28.9    26.8    02011   0.51    0.15     100    
THU 12Z 18-FEB  29.4    28.5    28.7    26.2    35010   0.14    0.00     100    
THU 18Z 18-FEB  28.7    28.1    28.6    24.5    34011   0.29    0.07     100    
FRI 00Z 19-FEB  29.1    28.1    28.6    24.3    33010   0.02    0.02      99    
FRI 06Z 19-FEB  28.6    26.6    26.6    22.4    31006   0.02    0.02       7    
FRI 12Z 19-FEB  26.6    18.3    18.2    13.8    32006   0.00    0.00       0    
FRI 18Z 19-FEB  30.6    16.6    30.6    18.4    13000   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 00Z 20-FEB  34.9    26.7    26.7    21.0    15005   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 06Z 20-FEB  27.7    24.7    24.9    19.2    17006   0.00    0.00       0    
SAT 12Z 20-FEB  25.3    24.4    25.4    19.9    17007   0.00    0.00       0    
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Pretty much the Euro has most of the central valley of East Tenneseee getting up to .10 accumulation of ice now. Plateau and Middle Tennessee get 1/4th to 3/4ths inch of sleet. .25-.35 ice in valley counties that border the Plateau.  Eastern Middle also gets around that much ice. The Plateau is over 1/2 inch ice accumulation. That snow map is awesome for the western 2/3rds of the valley and at this point, it looks like a classic winter storm that will come off basically doubt free for many of you. You have the most important ingredient for any southern winter storm, guaranteed cold.  

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The reason the Central Valley of East Tennessee and more of Alabama got more wintry was the Euro shifted south about 100 miles that run vs OZ. the Low heads slightly east of due north from Panama instead of from south central Alabama and ends up near Asheville. If it could only head east a little further you'd see more snow and less freezing rain further east.

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Pretty much could be a nasty ice storm after the Valentines day storm for Nashville,if it is anywhere right,could be just rain also depending on any snow pack

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BNA    LAT=  36.12 LON=  -86.68 ELE=   591

                                            12Z FEB13
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -2.5     3.2     129    8608    00006                           
SAT 18Z 13-FEB   1.1     1.5     129    8409    34006                           
SUN 00Z 14-FEB   0.5    -1.8     128    9043    34007           0.00            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -3.1     1.0     128    9032    35007           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -4.5     0.0     128    8667    00007           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB   0.6    -0.4     128    8664    02008           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB   0.4    -0.1     129    8340    02007           0.00            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -2.7     0.6     128    7222    35007           0.06            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -4.1     0.7     128    6999    01007           0.10            
MON 18Z 15-FEB  -3.0     0.0     128    7030    00006           0.02            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB  -5.3     0.0     128    3261    02006           0.48            
TUE 06Z 16-FEB  -7.0    -2.9     127       0    34007           0.22            
TUE 12Z 16-FEB  -9.2    -8.1     125       0    31005           0.00            
TUE 18Z 16-FEB  -5.0    -8.0     126       0    30004           0.00            
WED 00Z 17-FEB  -5.9    -7.8     126       0    32004           0.00            
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -8.5    -3.1     127       0    03005           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -8.7    -1.7     128       0    01004           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB   0.0     0.9     129    5299    06002           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB  -0.3     0.6     130    4151    35005           0.01            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -1.3    -0.1     130    4055    02005           0.20            
THU 12Z 18-FEB  -0.7     3.0     131    8781    02006           0.57            
THU 18Z 18-FEB   0.7     1.8     131    8590    36008           0.25            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB  -1.0    -0.4     129    3806    33010           0.08            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB  -4.0    -3.9     127       0    32008           0.04            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB  -6.4    -6.9     126       0    31008           0.01       
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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

After both storms Memphis gets 17 inches and 15+ is common out that way. That would have to join some of the all time wintery periods in the history of west and western middle Tennessee.

I was trying to think when the last 5-6+ event was for Memphis and the surrounding areas.  I feel like it’s been atleast 21 years cause I don’t ever remember a storm that big in my time living here.  Not sure what happened In the 90’s but I’m pretty sure 1985 had a 10+ event in Memphis that year.  I know northwest Tn has had some big events in the past 10-20 years though, especially the TN/Kentucky border counties.

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Memphis would get totally hammered,like John said the best winter for them in decades

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM    LAT=  35.05 LON=  -90.00 ELE=   285

                                            12Z FEB13
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 12Z 13-FEB  -6.4     3.3     127    9096    00007                           
SAT 18Z 13-FEB  -2.9    -0.1     127    9431    36010                           
SUN 00Z 14-FEB  -2.8    -2.7     127    9395    01008           0.00            
SUN 06Z 14-FEB  -5.4    -0.2     128    8917    01010           0.00            
SUN 12Z 14-FEB  -7.4    -0.3     127    9202    02010           0.00            
SUN 18Z 14-FEB  -1.7    -0.8     127    8068    02012           0.00            
MON 00Z 15-FEB  -2.8    -0.8     127    5907    36011           0.00            
MON 06Z 15-FEB  -6.3    -1.4     127    6092    01011           0.06            
MON 12Z 15-FEB  -9.2    -1.8     126    5509    01012           0.01            
MON 18Z 15-FEB -10.8    -3.3     126       0    35010           0.43            
TUE 00Z 16-FEB -10.6    -5.9     125       0    35010           0.34            
TUE 06Z 16-FEB -11.0    -8.0     124       0    34008           0.02            
TUE 12Z 16-FEB -15.1   -10.7     124       0    33005           0.00            
TUE 18Z 16-FEB -10.0    -7.5     125       0    35004           0.00            
WED 00Z 17-FEB -10.9    -5.1     126       0    36003           0.00            
WED 06Z 17-FEB  -9.2    -0.7     128       0    07005           0.00            
WED 12Z 17-FEB  -9.1    -2.0     127       0    04004           0.00            
WED 18Z 17-FEB  -3.7    -1.1     129       0    05006           0.00            
THU 00Z 18-FEB  -3.3    -0.3     129       0    02008           0.15            
THU 06Z 18-FEB  -3.2    -0.8     129       0    02008           0.31            
THU 12Z 18-FEB  -3.8     0.2     129    6763    00010           0.06            
THU 18Z 18-FEB  -4.3    -1.1     128       0    35012           0.24            
FRI 00Z 19-FEB  -3.9    -4.4     127       0    34011           0.14            
FRI 06Z 19-FEB  -4.6    -6.3     127       0    33008           0.05            
FRI 12Z 19-FEB -10.1    -5.5     127       0    32005           0.00   

 

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21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

After both storms Memphis gets 17 inches and 15+ is common out that way. That would have to join some of the all time wintery periods in the history of west and western middle Tennessee.

If they got 17 inches that would be good for the 8 snowiest season of all time in Memphis since 1894.  If they got over 17.5 they’d be good for 7th all time, passing 1904-1905 -17.5 inches 

25.1 inches is the all time record in Memphis, it happened in the 1917-1918 winter season.  Jonesboro, Arkansas broke their record in 1917-18 with 37.1 inches as well, Little Rock, Arkansas did the same that year with 26 inches exactly. 

 

Jackson, Tn all time snowiest season occurred in 1984-85 with 24.7”.  10th place on their all time list is 9.5 so It’s possible they could break into the top 10 with these systems as well.

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The trend Monday into Tuesday is a drastic reduction in temps in the eastern valley.  There are places in E TN and NE TN which are 10-15 degrees colder.  The CMC and Euro are now showing signs that the front may catch the precip in the eastern valley.  Really need to watch this.  There is a real possibility that the cold is being under modeled in the eastern valley.

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29 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

If they got 17 inches that would be good for the 8 snowiest season of all time in Memphis since 1894.  If they got over 17.5 they’d be good for 7th all time, passing 1904-1905 -17.5 inches 

25.1 inches is the all time record in Memphis, it happened in the 1917-1918 winter season.

Oddly 1905-1906, even tho people lived in a colder era back then was into a more moderate NINO,PER WEBBERWEATHER,in the 1917-18 winter this was a more moderate NINA into the tri-monthlies "OND".   -1.04

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11 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Oddly 1905-1906, even tho people lived in a colder era back then was into a more moderate NINO,PER WEBBERWEATHER,in the 1917-18 winter this was a more moderate NINA into the tri-monthlies "OND".   -1.04

Interesting.  It’s pretty cool how we can dive into the details for 100+ years of winter weather thanks to all the historical weather data we have.  

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The trend Monday into Tuesday is a drastic reduction in temps in the eastern valley.  There are places in E TN and NE TN which are 10-15 degrees colder.  The CMC and Euro are now showing signs that the front may catch the precip in the eastern valley.  Really need to watch this.  There is a real possibility that the cold is being under modeled in the eastern valley.

Canadian Suite in particular, may be onto something. I feel at some point the "up the great Valley"  se ridge affect will begin to collapse mainly N to South . By that time most of the caa should be entire column, possibly sleet b4 snow changeover as mid level may still have some +0c early on.

      Of course, in light of consensus, may be just grasping at straws but, have seen this type play out before.

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12 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I'll spill the beans: looks good if you're anywhere in Tennessee. It's farther SE and brings more snow to everyone. Only downside is that it brings more ice to our eastern areas.

Talking about this???

 

Screenshot_20210213-155729_Chrome.jpg

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14 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I'll spill the beans: looks good if you're anywhere in Tennessee. It's farther SE and brings more snow to everyone. Only downside is that it brings more ice to our eastern areas.

It’s not good for anyone from the eastern valley to northeast TN.  Great for west and much of middle.  Likely to be a storm to remember out that way.  Enjoy!

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