2/14- 2/16 Winter Storm and Arctic Cold

[AMZ8990]

31 minutes ago, Sweetpea Farms said:

It's currently locally predicted as ice to rain and then back to ice overnight on Sunday, then ice to snow Monday accumulating to 3.6 inches in Lincoln County, TN. That is 1.3 inches higher than yesterday's forecast. But this whole period is squirrelly (and fun) to forecast. The NWS prediction map follows exactly what happened about a week ago when we were definitely gonna get slammed with major storm out of Arkansas. It went north. Fine by me, as I have had my doubts about major winter storm activity over my area since this last potential threat arose. I've thought the southern warmth will rise just enough to mostly push it north, though parts of NW Tennessee will see some winter weather. Plenty of time for that scenario to evolve. It sure would make feeding my cattle easier. Go NWS! We'll see...

I will say this, a lot of times the NWS is a few steps behind on their forecasting.  I’m in no way saying they aren’t good at what they do.  But they’ve proven to be overly conservative more times than not.  Weather.com and their forecasting system is always a few steps ahead of NWS, I saw it happen multiple times last week when I was in Des Moines.  

[WestTennWX]

1 hour ago, AMZ8990 said:

At WestTennWX,  would you be willing to change the name of this thread so we can integrate the Monday -Tuesday system in it as well?  

No problem.  Hoping we all cash in this week!

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, WestTennWX said:

No problem.  Hoping we all cash in this week!

Might not hurt to add Middle/West TN to the thread title or tags so when we go back and search(in future years), it will be easier to find....

[WestTennWX]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Might not hurt to add Middle/West TN to the thread title or tags so when we go back and search(in future years), it will be easier to find....

Gotcha, edited!

[AMZ8990]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Snowing here,sticking to the roofs so far

Had some light snow fall for a little bit at my house also.  Not much but you can definitely see it on the cars and stuff.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Even if a lot of this is sleet, I'll take it, lol:

 

We'll see what the precip type amounts look like once they are available on F5wx. 

Look at that blue dollop over @PowellVolz !!!

[John1122]

2 hours ago, Sweetpea Farms said:

Huh.... This NWS snowfall forecast for 12 Sunday through 12 Monday contradicts our local weather predictions in the greater Huntsville, AL region including Giles and Lincoln counties of Tennessee by quite a bit.

Keep in mind this is 6am cst Sunday to 6am cst Monday. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Memphis and Tobie ought to like the UKMET precip maps for Tuesday.

 

And @Carvers Gap it could have some shades of the CMC's evolution. 

[John1122]

The euro is slightly colder and moves the system along much faster than previously. Still a high impact winter storm for most areas west of the Plateau. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Even the Euro is a little closer to rounding the Apps with the surface low:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Blue Moon said:

GIVE IT TO ME

GIVE ME ALL THE PRECIPITATION TYPES

THIS IS THE WAY

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro box sounding around BNA while the mixed bag of precip is moving through:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Just now, Blue Moon said:

Now that's a nose! Sheesh. That's like 7 degrees C.

Barely breaks the 0 degree celsius line:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro is going for a wave riding the front scenario as the trough digs and sharpens:

 

doesn't generate a lot of precip this run, but if there's one thing we've had luck with the past couple of winters, it's that scenario. 

[jaxjagman]

Euro don't look half bad for Memphis,more snow than ice

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB12 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 12-FEB -3.6 4.2 128 9497 01009 FRI 18Z 12-FEB 1.6 3.0 129 9687 02010 SAT 00Z 13-FEB 0.1 2.2 129 9706 01010 0.00 SAT 06Z 13-FEB -2.5 2.1 129 9457 02010 0.00 SAT 12Z 13-FEB -5.2 2.0 128 8423 00010 0.00 SAT 18Z 13-FEB 0.4 0.3 128 8644 36009 0.00 SUN 00Z 14-FEB -1.1 -0.8 128 9118 01009 0.00 SUN 06Z 14-FEB -4.2 0.5 128 8658 02010 0.00 SUN 12Z 14-FEB -6.4 -0.1 127 8866 02010 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -0.9 1.3 128 8061 02011 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB -1.3 0.3 128 7381 00011 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -5.5 -0.1 127 7203 00012 0.06 MON 12Z 15-FEB -6.9 -0.1 127 8059 01011 0.03 MON 18Z 15-FEB -8.5 -1.8 127 0 35009 0.18 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -9.8 -4.9 125 0 35010 0.35 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -11.7 -7.8 124 0 34010 0.01 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -15.2 -10.2 124 0 32006 0.00 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -10.1 -8.5 125 0 33005 0.00 WED 00Z 17-FEB -12.1 -6.3 126 0 35004 0.00 WED 06Z 17-FEB -11.5 -1.7 127 5097 07005 0.00 WED 12Z 17-FEB -8.8 -3.5 127 0 02005 0.00 WED 18Z 17-FEB -4.2 -2.0 128 0 04006 0.04 THU 00Z 18-FEB -3.9 -2.3 128 0 01007 0.07 THU 06Z 18-FEB -5.2 -3.4 128 0 36006 0.04 THU 12Z 18-FEB -7.6 -4.9 127 0 35008 0.00 THU 18Z 18-FEB -5.2 -7.1 126 0 33008 0.00 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -8.9 -6.9 127 0 32005 0.00 FRI 06Z 19-FEB FRI 12Z 19-FEB FRI 18Z 19-FEB SAT 00Z 20-FEB

[PowellVolz]

Even if a lot of this is sleet, I'll take it, lol:

 
We'll see what the precip type amounts look like once they are available on F5wx. 
Look at that blue dollop over [mention=14393]PowellVolz[/mention] !!!

.

[AMZ8990]

31 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Euro don't look half bad for Memphis,more snow than ice

 

ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: MEM LAT= 35.05 LON= -90.00 ELE= 285 12Z FEB12 2 M 850 1000 FZING SFC SFC 6 HR SNCVR TMP TMP 850 HGT WIND PCP QPF LIQ (C) (C) THK (FT) (KTS) TYPES (IN) (IN) FRI 12Z 12-FEB -3.6 4.2 128 9497 01009 FRI 18Z 12-FEB 1.6 3.0 129 9687 02010 SAT 00Z 13-FEB 0.1 2.2 129 9706 01010 0.00 SAT 06Z 13-FEB -2.5 2.1 129 9457 02010 0.00 SAT 12Z 13-FEB -5.2 2.0 128 8423 00010 0.00 SAT 18Z 13-FEB 0.4 0.3 128 8644 36009 0.00 SUN 00Z 14-FEB -1.1 -0.8 128 9118 01009 0.00 SUN 06Z 14-FEB -4.2 0.5 128 8658 02010 0.00 SUN 12Z 14-FEB -6.4 -0.1 127 8866 02010 0.00 SUN 18Z 14-FEB -0.9 1.3 128 8061 02011 0.00 MON 00Z 15-FEB -1.3 0.3 128 7381 00011 0.00 MON 06Z 15-FEB -5.5 -0.1 127 7203 00012 0.06 MON 12Z 15-FEB -6.9 -0.1 127 8059 01011 0.03 MON 18Z 15-FEB -8.5 -1.8 127 0 35009 0.18 TUE 00Z 16-FEB -9.8 -4.9 125 0 35010 0.35 TUE 06Z 16-FEB -11.7 -7.8 124 0 34010 0.01 TUE 12Z 16-FEB -15.2 -10.2 124 0 32006 0.00 TUE 18Z 16-FEB -10.1 -8.5 125 0 33005 0.00 WED 00Z 17-FEB -12.1 -6.3 126 0 35004 0.00 WED 06Z 17-FEB -11.5 -1.7 127 5097 07005 0.00 WED 12Z 17-FEB -8.8 -3.5 127 0 02005 0.00 WED 18Z 17-FEB -4.2 -2.0 128 0 04006 0.04 THU 00Z 18-FEB -3.9 -2.3 128 0 01007 0.07 THU 06Z 18-FEB -5.2 -3.4 128 0 36006 0.04 THU 12Z 18-FEB -7.6 -4.9 127 0 35008 0.00 THU 18Z 18-FEB -5.2 -7.1 126 0 33008 0.00 FRI 00Z 19-FEB -8.9 -6.9 127 0 32005 0.00 FRI 06Z 19-FEB FRI 12Z 19-FEB FRI 18Z 19-FEB SAT 00Z 20-FEB

It’s nice to have good support from the Euro!  I know personally I always hope for it to be in our corner/s for any events in our forum wide area.  Pretty wide swath of 4inch snow for a lot of the mid south and 2-3 into most of north Mississippi.  On a side note-One of these days though I’m gonna have to get Jax to give me a tutorial for the deterministic forecast table, lol.  

[John1122]

WWA issued again for here tonight. Currently 35 after 40 was predicted. Just to the W and NW  of me temps are below freezing.  Models cooled a bit today for the next event but MRX raised my temperatures some. Upper 20s basically instead of mid 20s and slightly above freezing highs instead of right at freezing. I have found that temperatures don't go up much in scenarios like what's being shown.  It's just getting that cold that takes some effort.

[Shocker0]

19 minutes ago, John1122 said:

WWA issued again for here tonight. Currently 35 after 40 was predicted. Just to the W and NW  of me temps are below freezing.  Models cooled a bit today for the next event but MRX raised my temperatures some. Upper 20s basically instead of mid 20s and slightly above freezing highs instead of right at freezing. I have found that temperatures don't go up much in scenarios like what's being shown.  It's just getting that cold that takes some effort.

30 here. Projected high was 39. I'd say they missed it pretty bad for sure. Not sure if it will make any difference for Monday but hopefully.

[bluegrassweather71]

WS Watches being issues for PAH and JKL. 

JKL forecast most of eastern KY with 3-5 inches of snow/sleet, with .5 inch ice. 

[AMZ8990]

30 minutes ago, bluegrassweather71 said:

WS Watches being issues for PAH and JKL. 

JKL forecast most of eastern KY with 3-5 inches of snow/sleet, with .5 inch ice. 

Looks like the majority of Arkansas is now in that winter storm watch as well with the exception of far eastern Arkansas at this time.  

[John1122]

Temperatures went to 32 once the sun set.  Big spread even 10 miles to my south where it's 36-37. 

[Utvols235]

.

[Sweetpea Farms]

Forecast for Lincoln County, TN on the AL border has changed six times at least today... lol...

Currently calling for light freezing rain early morning Monday then freezing rain later in the day moving to a wintery ice/snow mix after 10 p.m. I remain doubtful.

The forecast has swung from all rain to rain to ice to ice to snow and back and forth all day. That's because my farm sits just about precisely on the southeastern edge of this massive cold weather system. Couple of degrees one way or the other will make all the difference for us. 

Current cold-warm line is between Montevallo, AL, south to Montgomery, AL. Montevallo is at 42, Montgomery at 56. Isobars favor the cold right now but the southern isobars are tighter than they had been earlier so it really could go either way for the Alabama border counties of Giles, Lincoln and Franklin, in Tennessee, as well as the greater Huntsville AL NWS District that includes Lincoln and Franklin counties.

A very interesting thing to watch develop. NWS 12 p.m. CST Sunday to 12 p.m. Monday CST. This moves the snowfall just ever so slightly south of the earlier version.

 

[John1122]

3 minutes ago, Sweetpea Farms said:

Forecast for Lincoln County, TN on the AL border has changed six times at least today... lol...

Currently calling for light freezing rain early morning Monday then freezing rain later in the day moving to a wintery ice/snow mix after 10 p.m. I remain doubtful.

The forecast has swung from all rain to rain to ice to ice to snow and back and forth all day. That's because my farm sits just about precisely on the southeastern edge of this massive cold weather system. Couple of degrees one way or the other will make all the difference for us. 

Current cold-warm line is between Montevallo, AL, south to Montgomery, AL. Montevallo is at 42, Montgomery at 56. Isobars favor the cold right now but the southern isobars are tighter than they had been earlier so it really could go either way for the Alabama border counties of Giles, Lincoln and Franklin, in Tennessee, as well as the greater Huntsville AL NWS District that includes Lincoln and Franklin counties.

A very interesting thing to watch develop. NWS 12 p.m. CST Sunday to 12 p.m. Monday CST. This moves the snowfall just ever so slightly south of the earlier version.

 

The point forecasts are always all over the place. I especially don't pay attention when they are showing 2 hours of frozen, 2 hours non frozen, 2 more hours frozen etc changing back and forth all day. That's extremely rare. 

[AMZ8990]

Winter Storm Watches now In effect for all of west Tn, all of north Mississippi+central and south western Mississippi,  literally the ENTIRE state of Arkansas, and nearly the entire state of Texas, and most of north Louisiana.  The scope of this event is crazy when you see the national watch/warnings map.  Go to weather.gov if you want to see the picture for yourself, it will be the first thing you see once you’re on their website.  

[AMZ8990]

To put this system into perspective a little bit, and to show how powerful this cold air mass really is.  Galveston and Houston Texas are in this winter storm watch.  North of the Houston metro they are calling for 1-3 inches.  The beaches in Galveston could be snow covered and icy this weekend, that in and of itself is pretty amazing to me.  

[codgator]

High 28 here in Franklin today need that cold to keep pushing east . Might actually see some snow Sunday/ Monday. Looking for 3 to 4.

[PowellVolz]

Good luck guys.




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[Holston_River_Rambler]

Man its 33 and change here at the edge of the plateau. As is the custom, fog has built in over the last couple of hours as some WAA tries to set up.