WestTennWX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Let's see how this one plays out. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 In for later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Not saying it's going to happen here, but normally in these cases all the way to the Eastern rim or Western edge of the Plateau will see the low level cold invade, there's just not much to stop it as it spreads across the state. The RGEM looks more like what I'd expect. All I know for sure is that it will be tough on WFO to make the right calls until the event is underway most likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 All right here we go, west and middle tn buckle up maybe it's our time for winter weather!!!! Go luck for everyone on the forum, hopefully at some point we get a big snow!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Dang.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Seeing ice storm warnings hoisted for eastern Arkansas and a good portion of KY beginning tonight. Edit: and NW TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like Memphis finally pulled the trigger- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Memphis TN 254 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 ...Significant Ice Accumulations Expected Across Portions of the Mid-South Through Thursday... ARZ009-018-026>028-MOZ113-115-TNZ001>003-019-100600- /O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0001.210211T0000Z-210211T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KMEG.IS.W.0001.210210T0000Z-210211T1800Z/ Clay-Greene-Craighead-Poinsett-Mississippi-Dunklin-Pemiscot-Lake- Obion-Weakley-Dyer- Including the cities of Piggott, Corning, Paragould, Jonesboro, Harrisburg, Blytheville, Kennett, Caruthersville, Tiptonville, Union City, Martin, Dresden, and Dyersburg 254 PM CST Tue Feb 9 2021 ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Significant icing expected. Total ice accumulations of two tenths to three tenths of an inch. Some sleet may also occur. * WHERE...Portions of West Tennessee, East Arkansas and Southeast Missouri. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to noon CST Thursday. The first round of ice accumulations is expected tonight. Greater accumulations are expected Wednesday night into Thursday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Travel is strongly discouraged. If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Prepare for possible power outages. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Utvols235 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Special Weather Statementfor Davidson CountyIssued by National Weather ServiceNashville, TN2:05 PM CST Tue, Feb 9, 2021...Freezing Rain and Light Ice Accumulations Possible Wednesday Night into the Day Thursday...Potential for freezing rain and some ice accumulation is possible for areas mainly north of I-40 starting late Wednesday evening through the daytime Thursday. Up to around a tenth of an inch of ice is possible, mainly on grassy and cold surfaces, with the best chance for ice accumulation after midnight through noon Thursday. Temperatures will be right around to just below freezing during that time, with most road temperatures likely staying just above freezing. Widespread power outages and tree damage is not expected, however, slick spots on elevated surfaces may occur. Stay tuned for forecast updates on this evolving weather system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 RGEM isn't backing off. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Probably the best hope for areas that get ice is that it rains heavily. That doesn't allow for accretion to the extent that steady lighter rain brings. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluegrassweather71 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, Kentucky said: Dang.. London and Corbin right on the edge of the heaviest ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I'll add to John's post, for the TN people: Look how close the ice gets to the edge of the plateau, but not quite there to the south. Will be interesting to see if it actually pushes just a bit farther and hits the plateau. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 You can almost see the arctic front on visible satellite: Watch for the clouds that seem to be unmoving, that's almost exactly where the front is according to temps on wunderground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, bluegrassweather71 said: London and Corbin right on the edge of the heaviest ice I totally expect major accumulation here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbald Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Some of these meso scale models have been slowly walking the ice south and east along the swva border with Kentucky, about 1-5 miles a run it seems like. Really interested to see how geophysics play out on some of the mountains of swva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 47 minutes ago, John1122 said: RGEM isn't backing off. That would cause a lot of problems if it goes down as depicted here. Fingers crossed it doesn’t get that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestTennWX Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Fairly strong working out of Memphis in this evenings discussion. Wouldn't be surprised to see some of the official expected totals to increase a bit. A significant ice storm appears likely across portions of the Mid- South over the next 48 hours as moist air is forced over the top of a shallow arctic air mass. The forecast is complicated enough, but the messaging of hazards covering multiple periods is even more so. In trying to simplify the process, we`ve opted to start the Ice Storm Warning to 6 PM this evening for portions of northeast AR, the Bootheel, and northwest TN. The remaining areas in the Watch remain unchanged. Now for the nerdy part... A broad trough is affecting much of the CONUS this afternoon with a deep vortex centered southwest of Hudson Bay. The flow aloft remains quasi-zonal with a low-amplitude shortwave trough located off the CA coast. Closer to home, the quasi-stationary arctic front extends across north MS into middle TN, separating temperatures in the 20s and 30s from those in the 50s and 60s. Automated stations currently range from 28F at Kennett (MO) to 68F at Aberdeen (MS). Light freezing rain has already occurred in Jonesboro this afternoon and temperatures aren`t expected to warm much, if at all, over the next 24+ hours. We`re watching a strong upper tropospheric jet over the Great Lakes which will enhance large scale ascent tonight via the thermally direct circulation in the absence of strong QG forcing. Isentropic ascent will increase overnight, especially in the 285-290K layers. This will maintain broad lift, resulting in periods of freezing rain and freezing drizzle north of the quasi- stationary front. While significant accumulations of ice aren`t anticipated tonight, there may be enough to create some travel issues along/north of a line from Harrisburg, to Dyersburg, to Martin. With this in mind, we went ahead and pushed the start time of an Ice Storm Warning up to 6 PM this evening, running through noon Thursday. We won`t see freezing rain or continuous impacts throughout the duration of the warning as the main focus still lies in Wednesday night into Thursday as QG forcing for ascent increases and rain/freezing rain becomes more widespread. As we saw yesterday, warm advection in the layer around 850 mb will produce a prominent warm nose around 6-8C. The subfreezing air north of the arctic front will only be up to 2000 ft deep, resulting in a classic freezing rain/drizzle sounding. As the cold air deepens, we may see some sleet (and perhaps some snow) mix in, but freezing rain looks to be the predominant weather type at the onset. The front will sag south Wednesday night and Thursday, allowing the subfreezing air to to approach the I-40 corridor. The southern extent of where the freezing line will set up by 12z Thursday is a huge area of uncertainty. This makes the forecast less certain from Memphis to Jackson but points to the north look more certain to see significant ice accumulations. The 25th-75th percentiles ice accumulations for the whole event range from roughly 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice from Jonesboro to Union City. Worst case scenario (90th percentile) has a full inch of ice in this swath with near 1/2 inch as far south as Memphis and Jackson. On the other end of the spectrum, the 10th percentile calls for roughly 2/10 within the Ice Storm Warning. Needless to say, an inch of ice would be devastating. With all of this in mind, the official forecast of up to 0.35 inches of ice is quite conservative and may need to be increased depending on where the bands of heavier rain develop. We`re certainly watching this closely and will adjust as needed. This system looks to move east of the area Thursday evening with a wintry mix possible as precip winds down. Little in the way of additional accumulations are expected after sunset. Then the cold air settles into the Mid-South. We`ll see several days with highs in the 20s/30s with lows in the teens. Wind chill readings Friday and Saturday will be quite cold, approaching single digits in some areas. A fast-moving trough will bring a chance for very light snow to portions of the area Saturday evening, but no impacts are anticipated. A reinforcing cold shot will arrive by Sunday (and Monday), where wind chill values may fall below zero. Another deep trough is progged to affect the region early next week, bringing another chance for snow to the Mid-South. Given the plethora of moving parts between now and then, confidence remains limited but low PoPs were included Monday and Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: I'll add to John's post, for the TN people: Look how close the ice gets to the edge of the plateau, but not quite there to the south. Will be interesting to see if it actually pushes just a bit farther and hits the plateau. I hope not. That would be extremely unusual to have Cookeville get 0.65" of ice and Crossville just get rain though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro has already failed in west TN vs reality (similar to how Oklahoma was playing out yesterday). 7pm modeled vs now 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: I hope not. That would be extremely unusual to have Cookeville get 0.65" of ice and Crossville just get rain though. If you noticed the AFD from Memphis there it said the cold was only 2000 feet deep. The tops of the Plateau will not allow it to cross in spots or be above the cold. It moves more across Fentress because elevations there are around 1600-1700 feet. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 14 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Euro has already failed in west TN vs reality (similar to how Oklahoma was playing out yesterday). 7pm modeled vs now Even the RGEM which was about 3 degrees colder than the EURO at the same time is about 5-6 degrees too warm. That may play a major factor from Memphis into the mid-state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Even the RGEM which was about 3 degrees colder than the EURO at the same time is about 5-6 degrees too warm. That may play a major factor from Memphis into the mid-state. If I lived within 50-75 miles of where the front (ice) was progged, I wouldn't let my guard down. Front is moving thru Nashville..Goodlettsville has been steadily falling just to the NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codgator Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hope the models continue to lag - could be some late min flags being hoisted for mid Tenn!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: If I lived within 50-75 miles of where the front (ice) was progged, I wouldn't let my guard down. Front is moving thru Nashville..Goodlettsville has been steadily falling just to the NW. I honestly think the cold likely makes it all the way to the edge of the Plateau as modeled by the RGEM. I've just seen it happen too many times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, John1122 said: I honestly think the cold likely makes it all the way to the edge of the Plateau as modeled by the RGEM. I've just seen it happen too many times. Agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 If the Euro is off by several degrees, looks rough for even the plateau: 18z Euro: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Clarksville was supposed to be 36-39 across various modeling at this hour. Their predicted low is 32. They are currently 33 at Outlaw Field. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The front is running more parallel than most fronts you'll see. It's roughly from Hawkins County to Anderson, to Cumberland to Lawrence basically looking at the current surface map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I’m always pleased to see other areas of our forum score, but I’m not sure I’d wish a destructive ice storm on anyone! Good luck out that way with this one. Hopefully, your next chance early next week is more snow than ice! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Blue Moon said: Starting to really worry about this for my area now. Also, OHX doesn't even have a SWS in effect for Williamson County. They do for Davidson, but they drew the line there. I suppose they're going to wait until the icing occurs in West Tennessee and observe trends before they issue anything. In my opinion, I think that's too late, and the development of an ice storm needs to be broadcast to the public as soon as possible. I feel you. We had 4.5 inches of snow, closed interstates and widespread power outages when a winter storm warning was finally issued at 4am here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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