ILMRoss Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, jjwxman said: The ice maps for the NAM are assuming everything freezes on contact. That’s simply not going to happen with temps 30-32. Freezing rain as we all know is self limiting anyway. I’m not an ice fan at all, but if for some reason you like no power for two weeks, you would want the surface temps to be on the order of 26-27. In Dec 2002 I measured 0.75 on the tree branches in MBY. We managed to stay 26-28 degrees the entire event. 30-31 is ok for it if the winds are blustery enough and the rainfall rate is light enough. 28-30 is well enough to get the job done. With 30-31, if the winds aren't whipping and the rain is too heavy, a lot is lost as runoff. Also, with self limiting- that's moreso an issue in in-situ cads. While I don't think there will be there encroaching, backdoor front of zr sweeping through the region, I think CAA will be strong enough to maintain here for these NC/VA border regions. Anyone remember the ice storm back in March 2013? I think that was an event that had marginal temps but still packed a hell of an ice storm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS itself has the indicator with the isobars backing far down into NC as well. Map verbatim doesn’t look as bad as Nam but you take the qpf output from gfs and combine with nams superiority in low level thermals and you already know you have a big problem setting up for Sat 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Tealsnowball said: I can't remember any to be honest. Usually when Roanoke is faced with an icy situation, it's primarily sleet. Aside from the freezing rain we received in December, it hasn't occurred often in my mind. Normally Floyd is the place that gets hammered by icy events. For that NAM run, Radford seems to be on the fringe. Out of sheer curiosity, I have an urge to travel to Floyd, Poor Mountain, Bent Mountain, or Rocky mount to see what a true freezing rain event looks like. I taught in Floyd County from 74-79. I got to enjoy several awesome winters there. You are correct in saying Floyd tends to do well in winter weather situations. In January of 77 we came back from the Christmas holidays and went to school one day and that was it for January. Every time it seemed as if we might go back to school we would get hit again. Awesome times. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Wow... The 00z CMC really increases the icing threat on Saturday compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownheel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 This thing is starting to honk pretty hard. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCentrlVA Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 8 hours ago, BornAgain13 said: If this verified , it's been probably 20+ years since an ICE storm like this came through Yup the year was 1998 that we got 6 inches of sleet and .50 inches of freezing rain when I lived on Chestnut Plateau not to far from where I live now in Franklin County. This was in late February to early March of that year. Was absolutely unbelievable the amount of sleet and the trees just caving under the ice. Of course no power for a week was not fun. I never want to repeat that storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCentrlVA Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 hours ago, Tealsnowball said: I can't remember any to be honest. Usually when Roanoke is faced with an icy situation, it's primarily sleet. Aside from the freezing rain we received in December, it hasn't occurred often in my mind. Normally Floyd is the place that gets hammered by icy events. For that NAM run, Radford seems to be on the fringe. Out of sheer curiosity, I have an urge to travel to Floyd, Poor Mountain, Bent Mountain, or Rocky mount to see what a true freezing rain event looks like. When we get Ice storms anywhere from Bent Mountain to Rocky Mount is the place to be to get a true experience. I'm in Rocky Mount Virginia and everyone is not happy about this. If it verified it would be the biggest Ice storm since 98 and the impact will be bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Portion of this morning’s RAH discussion: A strong warm nose aloft on the order of 45-50 degrees will overrun the strengthening cold nose at the surface Friday night and Saturday. The surface wet bulbs are forecast to fall to 29-32 late Friday night into Saturday morning in these areas. Therefore, rain will develop Friday evening/night then possibly become freezing rain near the VA border counties first, spreading south into the Triad and northern Triangle (north Davidson/Forsyth ENE to Orange/northern Durham, to Warren Counties) between 07z and 15z/Saturday. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed if the current trends hold for these areas Friday night into Saturday. Since this is 4th and 5th periods, we will hold off for now. In collaboration with the surrounding WFOs, we will not issue a watch as current ice accumulations are expected to be less than 0.2 of an inch, with most areas 0.05 to 0.10 currently expected. Lows in the lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, magpiemaniac said: Portion of this morning’s RAH discussion: A strong warm nose aloft on the order of 45-50 degrees will overrun the strengthening cold nose at the surface Friday night and Saturday. The surface wet bulbs are forecast to fall to 29-32 late Friday night into Saturday morning in these areas. Therefore, rain will develop Friday evening/night then possibly become freezing rain near the VA border counties first, spreading south into the Triad and northern Triangle (north Davidson/Forsyth ENE to Orange/northern Durham, to Warren Counties) between 07z and 15z/Saturday. A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed if the current trends hold for these areas Friday night into Saturday. Since this is 4th and 5th periods, we will hold off for now. In collaboration with the surrounding WFOs, we will not issue a watch as current ice accumulations are expected to be less than 0.2 of an inch, with most areas 0.05 to 0.10 currently expected. Lows in the lower 30s. Dang if even the Conservative Karen of NWS over there in Raleigh is Taking notes on Tomm night maybe GSP will say something good in a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 According to RAH, this doesn’t look like anything more than a cold rain nuisance event south of the NC/VA state line. Only a little ice expected so they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Sneaking up on us.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 12k NAM at 12z is icier than 0z through 1PM tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Already looking at warning criteria by tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 For the triad, it was the iciest out of the last 6 runs for tomorrow morning. 12km has .21 and 3km has .23 at GSO. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: For the triad, it was the iciest out of the last 6 runs for tomorrow morning. 12km has .21 and 3km has .23 at GSO. TW which is WSW, or very close to it, criteria if I am remembering correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I thought it was .25, but I saw something recently saying it was .20 - could have been for another area west of the Apps thought. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 And wouldn't it be an ice storm warning rather than a WSW? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Watch that pink line sink south over the last three runs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Why are we not getting the true CAD wedge? For instance, the maps above show Durham more at risk than Mt Airy. Seems if a true CAD, Hickory to Mt Airy should be the heart of the freezing rain. TW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 23 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: Why are we not getting the true CAD wedge? For instance, the maps above show Durham more at risk than Mt Airy. Seems if a true CAD, Hickory to Mt Airy should be the heart of the freezing rain. TW That's what I was saying last night, the RGEM shows more of a traditional CAD look back here in NW Piedmont and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Berlin1926 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 44 minutes ago, BullCityWx said: Watch that pink line sink south over the last three runs: Lighter precipitation too.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said: Lighter precipitation too.... I don’t know what to think about that. The NAM has been far too dry at times with multiple systems in the last month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hickory Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Correct me if I’m wrong, but I just looked at the 12z 12k Nam on tropical tidbits and it showed just rain for most of NC for the Saturday morning event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Huh? Thunder in Spindale at the college, didn’t expect that... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Edit: just eating lunch at my desk and tuned into TWC, ( I know...sue me...). Seems so weird to see a winter mix way down past Houston and know that there might not be anything on the NC/SC boarder. ...and I can’t believe that pileup on I-35 down in Texas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kc4wsd Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Thunder in Greensboro, NC near the coliseum. Steady rain. Unable to provide an accurate temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Thunder down in High Point as well. Car thermometer indicated 47F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Alchemist said: Huh? Thunder in Spindale at the college, didn’t expect that... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Edit: just eating lunch at my desk and tuned into TWC, ( I know...sue me...). Seems so weird to see a winter mix way down past Houston and know that there might not be anything on the NC/SC boarder. ...and I can’t believe that pileup on I-35 down in Texas! Yup. I had the alert pop up and loaded the radar to see something incoming over here in Forest City. LOL (Best winter ever) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, strongwxnc said: Yup. I had the alert pop up and loaded the radar to see something incoming over here in Forest City. LOL (Best winter ever) Enjoy the thunder, cuz you know we wont get squat in spring/summer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I've been burned by the HRRR too many times, but it's has a much deeper cold pool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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