magpiemaniac Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Through Saturday evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said: So 50-50 shot for MBY for .25 yet RAH thinks 0.01? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: So 50-50 shot for MBY for .25 yet RAH thinks 0.01? Yeah, I thought that was odd, too. And both the WPC and RAH maps were made at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Still too much uncertainty in the data to jump to high numbers. They always start on the low end and increase the numbers over time if the data warrants it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I would have gone with 0.10” as that may be most accurate and would get more attention. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSU_Pi Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said: Still too much uncertainty in the data to jump to high numbers. They always start on the low end and increase the numbers over time if the data warrants it. I was going to ask those in the know: does the WPC have a little more leeway stepping out on forecasting events like this compared to the mainstream offices? Seems like the former is not noticed as much by the broader public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I believe the WPC probabilistic guidance is based on computer model output... I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grayman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 53 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: I believe the WPC probabilistic guidance is based on computer model output... I could be wrong though. Yes but they use blends , they have a very board discussion for a wide area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 @Disc or anyone else , do you guys believe we will be upgraded to an ICE Storm Warning up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Somebody's got to say it. 00z NAM is a bit weaker with the low and the wedging is a bit stronger on Friday night. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: Somebody's got to say it. 00z NAM is a bit weaker with the low and the wedging is a bit stronger on Friday night. TW Yep definitely trended further south with temps and precip. The wedge dug down more in the eastern part of NC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Very interesting that the NAM shows the wedge retreating around daybreak on Saturday, but then digging back in as the morning wears on. I"m not sure I've ever seen that. Maybe the low is transferring to the coast and negating the surge of warm air? TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, tarheelwx said: Very interesting that the NAM shows the wedge retreating around daybreak on Saturday, but then digging back in as the morning wears on. I"m not sure I've ever seen that. Maybe the low is transferring to the coast and negating the surge of warm air? TW I wonder if it cools back down because we’re no longer having the heat transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: @Disc or anyone else , do you guys believe we will be upgraded to an ICE Storm Warning up this way? You and I are pretty much obliterated off the map Saturday according to 12k Nam. Good lord! Even half of those amounts verify it is beyond significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: You and I are pretty much obliterated off the map Saturday according to 12k Nam. Good lord! Even half of those amounts verify it is beyond significant. Hoping the ice stays to my north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Welp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NAM Total ICE thru Saturday.... geez....Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just makes me wonder about Mon/Tuesday storm after watching the trends today. Do we see the same thing happen with that storm as we get closer with the wedge showing up a little stronger each run and pushing deeper to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, WXNewton said: Just makes me wonder about Mon/Tuesday storm after watching the trends today. Do we see the same thing happen with that storm as we get closer with the wedge showing up a little stronger each run and pushing deeper to the south? Entirely plausible. I’ve seen it happen time and time again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, BornAgain13 said: NAM Total ICE thru Saturday.... geez.... Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk I’ve lived in ROA since 2011. Is there anything that you can recall or think of that even came close to something like this throughout the decades or years? This is about 60 hours away give or take. We’re not talking 5-6 days out. Pretty crazy to think at an average of 1.30” half would still be .65”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Just makes me wonder about Mon/Tuesday storm after watching the trends today. Do we see the same thing happen with that storm as we get closer with the wedge showing up a little stronger each run and pushing deeper to the south? This has been happening for 2 months. So I'd say it's very possible. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Also saw Brad P. in house model tonight and it had almost all of NC in Freezing rain and dropped temps in HKY to 31. It was definitely interesting and seems like other guidance is not too far off from what he was showing. He also seemed a little more excited about a legit ice threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just keep in mind, we've seen alot of doomsday ice forecasts over the years that really just don't pan out - maybe due to sleet, maybe it's a bit warmer, maybe the precip is a bit lighter. Hopefully that's the case here. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tealsnowball Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I’ve lived in ROA since 2011. Is there anything that you can recall or think of that even came close to something like this throughout the decades or years? This is about 60 hours away give or take. We’re not talking 5-6 days out. Pretty crazy to think at an average of 1.30” half would still be .65”. I can't remember any to be honest. Usually when Roanoke is faced with an icy situation, it's primarily sleet. Aside from the freezing rain we received in December, it hasn't occurred often in my mind. Normally Floyd is the place that gets hammered by icy events. For that NAM run, Radford seems to be on the fringe. Out of sheer curiosity, I have an urge to travel to Floyd, Poor Mountain, Bent Mountain, or Rocky mount to see what a true freezing rain event looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Tealsnowball said: I can't remember any to be honest. Usually when Roanoke is faced with an icy situation, it's primarily sleet. Aside from the freezing rain we received in December, it hasn't occurred often in my mind. Normally Floyd is the place that gets hammered by icy events. For that NAM run, Radford seems to be on the fringe. Out of sheer curiosity, I have an urge to travel to Floyd, Poor Mountain, Bent Mountain, or Rocky mount to see what a true freezing rain event looks like. Man you go out toward Route 8 into Floyd you’ll probably get more than you ask for LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, WXNewton said: Also saw Brad P. in house model tonight and it had almost all of NC in Freezing rain and dropped temps in HKY to 31. It was definitely interesting and seems like other guidance is not too far off from what he was showing. He also seemed a little more excited about a legit ice threat. Was that on FB live? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 One critical thing I noted this run was it gets me down to 30 before the main event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, BullCityWx said: One critical thing I noted this run was it gets me down to 30 before the main event. Yea the wedge at a minimum is much more pronounced into western NC as well for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I remember a devastating ice storm up in Wytheville back in the mid 90's or so. Every yard I drove past had some sort of tree damage. Probably at least an inch of ice or so. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now