Newman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Which model would handle the current snowpack's effect on 10m temps best? The 3k NAM? Or does no model account for that? Usually the NAM is good at picking up on CAD and surface cold. But just a quick glance at the MOS guidance and it still looks a bit warmer than I expected. We'll see, I think this weekend is a "nuisance" but still dangerous, ice event. Maybe 0.1-0.2" accretion, which is still dangerous like I said. But the real ice events come Tuesday and Friday IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I wasn't questioning the temps, we'll stay below freezing. Just not sure about qpf. NAMs looked "spotty" while other models looked a little more wide spread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Not at all. I've been sitting at 27/28F today after a cold night / overcast with a solid snowpack for quite a while. The ground must be cold AF... Right, and the ground was pretty much frozen prior to the early Feb. storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Which model would handle the current snowpack's effect on 10m temps best? The 3k NAM? Or does no model account for that? I always wonder how much the models account for urban heat islands. I live in Northeast so we are a little colder than like center city etc. I’ve seen ice accru on my sidewalks and backstreets before but not enough to make it dangerous. I won’t be driving but any frozen precip is fun to track. Wonder if it starts as some sleet here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Winter Weather Advisory issued here from 1 pm tomorrow until 1 pm Sunday for less then 1" of snow and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 00Z Euro was ugggggly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhotdog Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Is today basically no big deal now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 23 minutes ago, jhotdog said: Is today basically no big deal now? Won't be until this afternoon evening. Very light amounts of whatever falls but it should be frozen. Maybe some slick spots on untreated surfaces but nothing significant at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, jhotdog said: Is today basically no big deal now? Look like NJ & DE are the spots to be. NAMs don’t look too impressive NW of 95. Still, it doesn’t take much ice to cause issues on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 32 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Look like NJ & DE are the spots to be. NAMs don’t look too impressive NW of 95. Still, it doesn’t take much ice to cause issues on the road. Odd that the HRRR and nam traded spots and hrrr is more juicy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 NAM is the driest of all mesos for today. Either leading the pack and onto something or out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Odd that the HRRR and nam traded spots and hrrr is more juicy? Right. I'm not used to seeing the NAM dry and it's been consistent with that look. Then you have the HRRR. Waiting on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Right. I'm not used to seeing the NAM dry and it's been consistent with that look. Then you have the HRRR. Waiting on the RGEM. Looks like precip gets up to SE PA latitude and pretty much slides off to the ENE. Right now the radar is looking juicy enough south of here. .1" of ice will be enough to make things slick, plus here it will do a number on the bamboo forest. I'd much prefer sleet, or snow obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Looks like precip gets up to SE PA latitude and pretty much slides off to the ENE. Right now the radar is looking juicy enough south of here. .1" of ice will be enough to make things slick, plus here it will do a number on the bamboo forest. I'd much prefer sleet, or snow obviously. Just looking at the radar, Central Del and a little further N will be alright but SE PA looks very iffy and the burbs may get whiffed and have a cloudy day w/temps in the 20s... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The last 2 hours the radar has blossomed and moving in our favor. Definitely feels and looks like precip...sitting at 26F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: The last 2 hours the radar has blossomed and moving in our favor. Definitely feels and looks like precip...sitting at 26F. HRRR still shows us getting something up our way. Think I’ll just watch the radar instead of the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, JTA66 said: HRRR still shows us getting something up our way. Think I’ll just watch the radar instead of the models. Pretty much. Incoming unless virga...28F. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Any reports from Kamuland? He looks to be in a good spot for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Any reports from Kamuland? He looks to be in a good spot for this. Yeah, lol. I was just gathering data to post. Temp. here is 31F, dp all the way down at 12, so I was thinking virga for a while. However, we're actually getting very light rain with a few small sleet pellets mixed in. Wtf, lol, I was hoping for some solid precip to start at least. Guess that warm air aloft is real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzy9479 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 -FZRA started here in Williamstown, NJ - central Gloucester county. 30.6 F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 What happened to this being an evening thing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 So should travel be ok tomorrow late morning/early afternoon? It seems like the timing is better now for when I go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: What happened to this being an evening thing? Who cares? If you have to travel, use your judgement and make the best decision... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, mattinpa said: So should travel be ok tomorrow late morning/early afternoon? It seems like the timing is better now for when I go out. Probably, especially given that there doesn't look to be much precip after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: Who cares? If you have to travel, use your judgement and make the best decision... Uhh I care? What kind of question is that. I don't need to go anywhere but the news was saying and people were asking here if the daytime would be OK. The consensus was yes. Can't even predict the weather a day in advance LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: Uhh I care? What kind of question is that. I don't need to go anywhere but the news was saying and people were asking here if the daytime would be OK. The consensus was yes. Can't even predict the weather a day in advance LOL Not to nitpick, but everything I've seen said afternoon/evening... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Not to nitpick, but everything I've seen said afternoon/evening... People mentioned after 6 on here. They should stick to their day jobs. Freezing rain already falling. No one said 12pm lol lame stream included. Hopefully anyone who took their advice from internet weatherman is safe out there! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, KamuSnow said: Not to nitpick, but everything I've seen said afternoon/evening... I only use the NWS, so can't comment on any other forecaster, but this is what I saw from Mt Holly: A chance of snow and sleet before 2pm, then sleet likely. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Aaaanyway. Currently have a sleet/killer rain mix. 28.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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