The Iceman Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 We are now inside 5 days on this threat and the global are in agreement that some kind of winter event will effect the region this weekend. The gfs hangs on to the primary way too long imo and as a result the area turns to rain but I think with the Arctic air nearby, this is one that has all the makings of a major sleet/ice storm. Here's the 12z cmc. And there is also likely a decent 2-4" thump of snow before the changeover. The ICON also is showing a significant event for 95 n and W. Overall with the snowpack and Arctic air along with the banana high in canada, this one has major cad potential. Discuss here 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Here is the ICON for saturday night, it doesn't do the best with thermals but good to see it kill the primary faster like the cmc: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Uk looks similar to the icon but probably icier. Hard to tell. Overall I like the potential for possible .5" of frozen LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Here is the ICON for saturday night, it doesn't do the best with thermals but good to see it kill the primary faster like the cmc: Some storms have trended north and some south this winter. So we’ll see. I am not a fan of ice like I am snow, so hope the ICON is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Obd2011 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Hello! Is anyone seeing the coastal low exploding off the southern carolinas in the past 2 hours? I don’t recall hearing any mention of that being even a possibility in any forecast scenarios discussed from nws, accu, bernie rayno, etc... i just looked for some of the early week model runs to see if any predicted a low forming and found one, but apparently it was quickly disregarded as nonsense. Im in the south central pa area where they said 36 hrs ago 10-15”, then yesterday it went from 4-8 to 1-3 in 2 hrs, to Bernie rayno saying a dusting or nothing because storm would stay south on or just across the mason dixon. its been snowing steady here since 7:45pm with no mixing. Radar shows heavy snow continues throughout pa moving slightly ENE. Now the dusting nothingburger they said to expect is modified to 3-6” in the past hour. Any thoughts? 10-15 changed to nothing, changed to 3-6, coastal low forms that was never mentioned, radar & satellite imagery plus real time observations dont line up with the forecast? Id appreciate another pair of eyes and opinions. Maybe im missing something? Thanks! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Can we please ban kuchera maps? 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 8 minutes ago, hurricane1091 said: Can we please ban kuchera maps? Why ? Its accurate when we are dealing with ratios. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why ? Its accurate when we are dealing with ratios. It's not accurate and it never is lol 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 HRRR is a bad ice storm for tomorrow PM if it is to be believed. Shows .1"-.25" ice accretion here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 This is one of those times I have no idea what's going to happen. I have plans in Wallingford tomorrow pm. The NAMs don't look too threatening, the RGEM has me wondering if I should reschedule (and what Ralph said above about the HRRR at range). Think I'll be watching the radar tomorrow and make a game time decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Tomorrow may end up more impactful than mon-tues. Light precip falling with temps well below freezing and have been below freezing for awhile, recipe for disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Sleeper event wrt wkend storm. I told my friend who was supposed to visit this weekend to reschedule. RPM suggests there could be problems and I buy it. Don't think it'll be major, but .1" seems likely...I'd give it 70% odds. With cold sfc temps, that as iceman correctly notes have been cold for awhile, and existing snowpack, this is bad news. You don't need much freezing rain to make travel dangerous. The most deadly winter wx events are the minor ones. Advisory snows etc. People tend to go faster and pay less attention, encounter slick spots they don't see, and then, wham. Bigger events generally cause more people to hunker down and stay home. You don't need 1994 to make for a bad day. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'm not sure how widespread the more significant icing will be in this region, but where there is will be a smaller geographical stripe of pure ice during this fz drizzle and light fz showers it will certainly be quote impacted. Could easily see a stripe of .3" or slightly more accretion in the region. Looks bad for areas just SW of our region also. As others have said, this could certainly come as a surprise to some when they wake up Sunday AM and look outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Keep in mind, I know up my way there is still a solid and sometimes deep snowpack that is still fresh (snow on snow on snow). This is massive insulation at the ground and could make all the difference when talking a matter of 1 or 2 degrees at the surface and time need to scour out the colder surface. It certainly isn't melting much today. 27F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Will this effect travel on Saturday as well? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 When is start time for this? I'm getting the vax in the afternoon I hope I'm not impacted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, yankeex777 said: When is start time for this? I'm getting the vax in the afternoon I hope I'm not impacted... Afternoon is vague since it's a 6 hour time span but I wouldn't think things get dicey to the evening at the earliest... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4:00 to be more specific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: 4:00 to be more specific Early afternoon is the projected start time in SEPA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, yankeex777 said: 4:00 to be more specific Just speaking for myself, I would go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: Just speaking for myself, I would go. 1000% still going. I'm just hoping they dont cancel appts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, yankeex777 said: 1000% still going. I'm just hoping they dont cancel appts Where is it? Call/check website and basically use all around judgement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro is 12 hrs of ice accretion SE PA and part of central NJ from 1pm tomorrow thru Sunday sunrise with freezing drizzle still falling at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Around .20" enough with frozen ground to make it a skating rink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Temps in the low-mid 20s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Newman said: Temps in the low-mid 20s Which model would handle the current snowpack's effect on 10m temps best? The 3k NAM? Or does no model account for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Which model would handle the current snowpack's effect on 10m temps best? The 3k NAM? Or does no model account for that? Wondered the same... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Birds~69 said: Wondered the same... I think temps will be .lower than progged ie marginal areas such as ours may remain quite cold at the surface. The question really is how much precip. Wont take much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I think temps will be .lower than progged ie marginal areas such as ours may remain quite cold at the surface. The question really is how much precip. Wont take much. Not at all. I've been sitting at 27/28F today after a cold night / overcast with a solid snowpack for quite a while. The ground must be cold AF... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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