McHenrySnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baum said: ^optimists counterpoint; you could get 15" over the next 7 days. I do honestly try to be optimistic, it's just not in my nature. That's REALLY optimistic, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I have to acknowledge I was too optimistic/aggressive on first real post I made to this thread. What we've seen is an adjustment to what probably was always a more realistic outcome in this setup, to have broadbrushed lighter totals and then a more focused corridor where mesoscale banding could enhance things. The 12z runs thus far show that nicely, 2-4" in that swath which should cut across roughly the I-80 to 88 corridors, and can't rule out 4-5" totals if the banding is stronger and more prolonged than expected given likelihood of >20:1 SLRs.Finally, Sunday night into Monday is trending up, especially on 12z RGEM, which has a broad 4-6" across the CWA. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, DLMKA said: I live in Farmington and we have about half the snow as even as close as Hanna City and Peoria proper. Crazy how sharp the cut offs have been in our county. Esp near I74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Finally, Sunday night into Monday is trending up, especially on 12z RGEM, which has a broad 4-6" across the CWA. Halfway decent jet coupling showing up. Better consensus on RRQ action from the northern streak on most other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Saturation occurring ahead of schedule south of DSM thanks to a narrow band of fgen forcing. Nice to see pivotalweather add this to their repertoire. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said: sort of an odd situation the scattered very weak north to south moving radar echoes over IL are light snow showers (drove through some this morning yet the stronger returns over eastern IA into Western IL moving east appear to be virga those snow showers are below the mid level dry layer while the stronger returns moving eastward are higher up and evaporating as they fall through the dry layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 the thin snow band goes right over the DVN radar site. with 15-20 dBZ echoes on the western edge vanishing and reappearing at higher levels relative to the radar beam more east so wasteful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: the thin snow band goes right over the DVN radar site. with 15-20 dBZ echoes on the western edge vanishing and reappearing at higher levels relative to the radar beam more east so wasteful I could see this all ending up north of us. Tricky setup for models. Seem splotchy with the snow. Frontogenic band will likely be north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: I could see this all ending up north of us. Tricky setup for models. Seem splotchy with the snow. Frontogenic band will likely be north. snow hitting the ground south central IA in that band as of 17z CHARITON has 1 mil Vis and Ottumwa has very light snow take that due east and its the northern part of the metro , but I assume there will be a slight north push with time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: snow hitting the ground south central IA in that band as of 17z CHARITON has 1 mil Vis and Ottumwa has very light snow take that due east and its the northern part of the metro , but I assume there will be a slight north push with time Hrrr seems to be latched onto the idea of a band forming to our ne and backbuilding sw into us tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, McHenrySnow said: I wouldn't be surprised if some of you who have continuously gotten snow this week do okay. I'm hoping for an inch. Have yet to see an inch from a single event this week, so it might be a fool's errand. Regardless, it's nice to have snow on the ground and I'm trying to just come to peace with the fact that that's as good as it's going to get this winter. RFD had 1.1" last night. Had .5" here. How do you do overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, Cary67 said: RFD had 1.1" last night. Had .5" here. How do you do overnight? 0.75" - we had quality dendrites for maybe 20-30 minutes between 10 and 11 and the rest was dust. We can't win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The ORD total from yesterday is probably off by 0.2 to 0.4 based off analysis of all nearby CoCoRaHS sites. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The prospect for anything more than another 1-2" fluffer has dwindled for my area. It's still better than nothing, though. It may be the last snow I see for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 plumes got that 2-3 look, large group of underperformers still tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 36 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The ORD total from yesterday is probably off by 0.2 to 0.4 based off analysis of all nearby CoCoRaHS sites. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Gonna start adding an asterisk to the ORD whenever I post it here and it's in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 19 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: plumes got that 2-3 look, large group of underperformers still tho take it and run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Snow falling here. Although looking at radar it appears to be more lake-effect than system snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Hrrr seems very lost today. Rap seems to have better handle on current trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Regarding lake enhancement tonight into Saturday morning for northwest Indiana, the Euro is farther west with the low level convergence axis than the other guidance, bringing solid enhancement as far west as GYY. It favors the Lake-Porter area and several miles either side for highest totals in the CWA through tomorrow evening. We currently have a WWA out for Porter County and if observational trends this evening support the Euro, we may have to extend the advisory into Lake IN. I think we may leave things as is for the afternoon issuance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 klot aviation Snow is ongoing in a band across Iowa. This band will shift to the east and over the area this evening. Substantial dry air is in place ahead of this band, especially across northern Iowa and northern Illinois. It is plausible that snow/flurries begin as early as 00z, but more likely the accumulating snow will start a few hours later from south to north (1-2z MDW, 3z at ORD). Morning AMDAR soundings show that the dry air is not very strong initially, and should be overcome quickly if no additional dry air moves in, but our latest AMDAR soundings at MDW do show dry air is advecting in. Confidence on snow onset is therefore only medium but current thought is that we may need to push things back a bit if the dry air trends continue. Once snow begins, a prolonged light to moderate snow event will unfold tonight into Saturday over the area TAF sites. Confidence is fairly high in this event beginning over the southern part of the Chicago metro (favoring MDW) before ORD and possibly by several hours. This has the look of 1-2 SM snow for much of this event. Late tonight into Saturday morning, approximately 08Z-15Z, there are some signals for temporary sub 1SM visibility. Ceilings should lower through the MVFR category tonight and temporary IFR is probable Saturday, although when on Saturday morning is still too low of confidence to include at this distance in the TAF. Total accumulation of this dry and powdery snow is forecast at 2 to 3 inches at ORD and MDW by Saturday afternoon. If moderate rates are more frequent, namely at MDW, that could be exceeded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: Gonna start adding an asterisk to the ORD whenever I post it here and it's in question. Should just add like 5" onto the seasonal total come April given their inability to correctly measure snow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nice band stalled a few miles north of me. This is not my winter. Lol. Hoping it can build south later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Snowing lightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Forever living on the edge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 KLOT The main axis of snowfall amounts in the 2-4" range has shifted a bit north, focused more around the I-80/88 corridors with this update, with amounts lowered to for our southernmost counties to an inch or less. PoP trends for Saturday morning are a bit unclear, as we`ll begin losing the better jet support, resulting in an overall weakening to the already modest mid-level f-gen. This may allow lingering light snow near/south of I-80 to dwindle, before additional ascent from an incoming shortwave pushes across our northwestern locales. Have trimmed PoPs south and east of I-57 as a result, and left the categorical/definites going elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, ILSNOW said: KLOT The main axis of snowfall amounts in the 2-4" range has shifted a bit north, focused more around the I-80/88 corridors with this update, with amounts lowered to for our southernmost counties to an inch or less. PoP trends for Saturday morning are a bit unclear, as we`ll begin losing the better jet support, resulting in an overall weakening to the already modest mid-level f-gen. This may allow lingering light snow near/south of I-80 to dwindle, before additional ascent from an incoming shortwave pushes across our northwestern locales. Have trimmed PoPs south and east of I-57 as a result, and left the categorical/definites going elsewhere. Sounds about right. Dead on arrival. I give up on this winter. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Tiniest flakes falling. Accumulating on sidewalks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Some decent banding just south of here. Can also see the lake enhanced band charging westward on LOT radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Got about an inch so far. Coming down pretty decently right now and -2 degrees. With the pattern moving more towards the eastern sub this may be the deepest the snowpack gets here, which is at about 16" this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now