Stebo Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Terrible model is terrible. . Incredible amount of garbage from GFS. I will give an example, this is at 45 hours in NE Indiana, sounding Map at same time I mean that is insanely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 00z HRRR coming in with a stripe of 6" around I-80 in northeast IL/northwest IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 00z HRRR coming in with a stripe of 6" around I-80 in northeast IL/northwest IN.21z RAP also had a corridor of up to 6” amounts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 18z GEM and Euro and now 0z NAM all have come in drier. Let the trend begin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Gfs ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, A-L-E-K said: Gfs ftw counterpoint: na. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I don't know the amounts, but NAM verbatim, with regard to track looks good and consistent....to me. Also, looks like I-80 corridor does really well. And goes rogue with a band of snow on Sunday. Final edit: I'm okay with this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: counterpoint: na. Short and sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looks like 2-3" of fresh powder tomorrow night/Sat AM for the QCA. Another nice refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 New Euro shows only about a tenth of precip for most of the DVN cwa after numerous runs of 0.15-0.20". Models are just too aggressive in the 36+hr time frame this winter it seems. Almost every time the models vastly reduce QPF in the final 30hrs. It's been great the past 40 days or so, but the models have been jerking us around quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 looks like slightly drier as I'm now at the lower end of the 2-5" call. Still, weekend, ongoing light snow, deep snowpack, bitter cold, and storms to track. Perfect Mid February weekend, Spring training begins next week. No complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Gfs ftw crushed the competition again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: crushed the competition again GFS is the new King (haha) looking forward 2 another 2 inch refresher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 is gonna be a win at the rate we're bleeding plumes dropped again, best cluster now right at 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Wasn't expecting much more than that tbh. 2" still very good given the quality it will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 At this point I can either laugh or cry. I’m laughing maniacally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Well this has trended to a real dry prune. How depressing. I have barely squeaked out anything from this cold active pattern. Cue Taps with the trumpet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12z NAM 2 to 3 inch event tomorrow 12z 3K NAM 2 to 3 with almost a 4 lollipop around cook county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 This morning has actually been one of the rougher ones this winter as far as traffic accidents in southern Wisconsin. I think it's a combination of people not taking it seriously because we weren't forecast to (and didn't) get a big snowstorm, and the inefficacy of salt at these temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DLMKA Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 29 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Well this has trended to a real dry prune. How depressing. I have barely squeaked out anything from this cold active pattern. Cue Taps with the trumpet. I live in Farmington and we have about half the snow as even as close as Hanna City and Peoria proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 because this thread could use a lil good vibes, returns in NE/IA looking better than i expected, hopefully 88 corridor does ok later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 sort of an odd situation the scattered very weak north to south moving radar echoes over IL are light snow showers (drove through some this morning yet the stronger returns over eastern IA into Western IL moving east appear to be virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1" - 6" is in the bag. Don't fret. And than root for the PV to relax for something better Monday-Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 LOL REA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 946 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2021 UPDATE 946 AM CST CURRENTLY, AN ELONGATED 155 KT JET STREAK EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN MICHIGAN, AS SAMPLED NICELY BY THE 12Z RAOBS FROM MPX/GRB/APX. IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK IS A SIMILARLY ELONGATED ZONE OF RADAR ECHOES STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA THOUGH WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS. YET, CLOUD BASES NEAR 10,000 FEET AND A DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION REPORTS FROM ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATION PLATFORMS SUGGEST MOSTLY VIRGA IS FALLING WITHIN THE LONG BAND OF RADAR ECHOES, EXCEPT ACROSS NEBRASKA AND VERY FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA WHERE LIGHT SNOW IS MAKING IT TO THE GROUND. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE INCOMING SUITE OF HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON LIQUID-EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE CULPRIT IS A PREVIOUSLY UNADVERTISED WEDGE OF DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR CENTERED AROUND 850 MB / 5000 FEET, WHICH IS CHEWING UP THE SNOW THAT IS DEVELOPING FROM THE DECIDEDLY UPPER-LEVEL LIFT. AS A RESULT, THE ONSET OF SNOW TODAY AND OVERALL SNOW TOTALS WILL TAKE LONGER AND BE LOWER THAN WE ORIGINALLY THOUGHT, RESPECTIVELY. USING THE RAP 850 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS A PROXY TO TRACK THE ELIMINATION OF THE DRY LAYER, IT APPEARS LIGHT SNOW SHOULD START TRICKLING DOWN TO THE GROUND AFTER DARK AND IN THE 9-11 PM WINDOW. BY THAT POINT, A DEEP SNOWFLAKE GROWTH LAYER OF NEARLY 15,000 FEET WILL STILL AFFORD FLUFFY SNOW RATIOS OF 20:1 TO 25:1, WITH GRADUAL LIFT SUPPORTING A SNOW RATE OF 0.1 TO 0.3"/HR THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. UPPER- LEVEL LIFT WILL THEN WANE WITH TIME AS THE UPPER- LEVEL JET STREAK SCOOTS EASTWARD, THOUGH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. OVERALL, THE REDUCTION IN SNOW TOTALS BY THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT WAS A GOOD MOVE, AND GENERALLY 1 TO 4" (HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE LOCALIZED THAN NOT) LOOKS ON TRACK. SHOULD THE DRY LAYER ERODE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, AT LEAST SOME CONSIDERATION WILL BE GIVEN TO A SHORT LEAD-TIME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER OUR MESSAGING APPEARS QUITE APPROPRIATE FOR A LONG-DURATION LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. BORCHARDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Some guidance has a weenie swath from about BRL into Chicago metro while other guidance, including some of the CAM's are drier or have that higher axis south of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 excellent under the hood discussion by the LOT forecaster. Even baked in the possibility of an over performance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Baum said: excellent under the hood discussion by the LOT forecaster. Even baked in the possibility of an over performance. I wouldn't be surprised if some of you who have continuously gotten snow this week do okay. I'm hoping for an inch. Have yet to see an inch from a single event this week, so it might be a fool's errand. Regardless, it's nice to have snow on the ground and I'm trying to just come to peace with the fact that that's as good as it's going to get this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 ^optimists counterpoint; you could get 15" over the next 7 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Still looks like a 2-4” event where the main corridor sets up, which looks to be through the heart of the metro. A more widespread 1-3" outside of that corridor. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 personally, enjoy long duration 2-4" moderate events in deep cold airmass. Especially, on a weekend where I don't have to drive in it, 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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