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Feb 12-14th V-Day Weekend Potential Stuff


Chicago Storm
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23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

yeah ratio skepticism generally feels misplaced

12z euro has an evolution similar to the rest of the 12z guidance, given how well a tenth or so of liquid has been fluffing up, i'll take my chances here and mourn the big dog in the med range thread

obv riding the ukmet

Very high ratios become possible with temps in the teens, but it depends on way more variables than just surface temperature.  Lake influence almost always fluffs up totals.  Pure synoptic events tend to be denser most of the time, but sometimes really good dendrite growth conditions happen in a band and you get something like last night.

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I feel like it's best to take ratios on a case by case basis.  Being locked in a cold pattern doesn't guarantee great ratios every time.  It was only 3 days ago that a system generally underperformed on ratios.  Yesterday's snow had outstanding ratios, but you probably wouldn't want to bet on 30:1 or 40:1 or better happening over and over.  Even 15:1-20:1 would be nice though.

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EPS looks great for Fri-Sat. Made some positive changes similar to the op run. Looking at some of WPC’s cluster products, a lot of the sensitivity is tied to how and when the PV heads East and resultant heights in the NE (overall the 12Z EPS is slower w ejecting it). Also some timing issues w Pacific energy as usual. 

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KLOT update (not Ricky) unimpressed. But the combo of Angrysummons and A-L-E-K  will be hard to keep down.

Thursday through Tuesday...

Continued cold conditions are expected through the remainder of the
forecast period, including a reinforcing shot of even colder air for
the late weekend into early next week.  Multiple periods of snow
also remain likely, though different portions of the forecast area
are favored with each one, and nothing looks overly significant at
least into early next week.
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I'm hoping to be on the Long Term desk tomorrow. The more I look, the more I like Friday-Saturday. Reminds me of the fronto setups from NYE 2013 through Jan 5 2014. Somewhere in the CWA (north of 80 currently most favored) gonna start snowing Friday afternoon and not stop until Saturday evening.

 

I'd be shocked if we don't need a headline for the period and think it's already greater than 50/50 part of the CWA will end up needing a warning. Blowing and drifting snow impacts later in the event could rival the night of Jan 5 2014 given the deep snowpack and very powdery top layers and surge of unmodified CAA with 850s crashing to low-mid -20s C.

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm hoping to be on the Long Term desk tomorrow. The more I look, the more I like Friday-Saturday. Reminds me of the fronto setups from NYE 2013 through Jan 5 2014. Somewhere in the CWA (north of 80 currently most favored) gonna start snowing Friday afternoon and not stop until Saturday evening.

 

I'd be shocked if we don't need a headline for the period and think it's already greater than 50/50 part of the CWA will end up needing a warning. Blowing and drifting snow impacts later in the event could rival the night of Jan 5 2014 given the deep snowpack and very powdery top layers and surge of unmodified CAA with 850s crashing to low-mid -20s C.

 

 

 

 

WOW!!!

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44 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm hoping to be on the Long Term desk tomorrow. The more I look, the more I like Friday-Saturday. Reminds me of the fronto setups from NYE 2013 through Jan 5 2014. Somewhere in the CWA (north of 80 currently most favored) gonna start snowing Friday afternoon and not stop until Saturday evening.

 

I'd be shocked if we don't need a headline for the period and think it's already greater than 50/50 part of the CWA will end up needing a warning. Blowing and drifting snow impacts later in the event could rival the night of Jan 5 2014 given the deep snowpack and very powdery top layers and surge of unmodified CAA with 850s crashing to low-mid -20s C.

 

 

 

 

Flying out Saturday AM. Bound to screw up the flight 

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48 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'm hoping to be on the Long Term desk tomorrow. The more I look, the more I like Friday-Saturday. Reminds me of the fronto setups from NYE 2013 through Jan 5 2014. Somewhere in the CWA (north of 80 currently most favored) gonna start snowing Friday afternoon and not stop until Saturday evening.

 

I'd be shocked if we don't need a headline for the period and think it's already greater than 50/50 part of the CWA will end up needing a warning. Blowing and drifting snow impacts later in the event could rival the night of Jan 5 2014 given the deep snowpack and very powdery top layers and surge of unmodified CAA with 850s crashing to low-mid -20s C.

 

 

 

 

So what you’re saying is I’ll likely have to prepare for Metra delays coming from Boone County to Jefferson Park on Saturday evening? :axe:

The snow loving part of me is all :thumbsup: reading those thoughts, though.

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