Baum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 40 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: GFS is a 1-3 with a 4.4 lollipop over cook county GFS para 3-4 with a 5 lollipop over cook county GFS was my model yesterday AM when it hit us with the wound up cutter. Now, it's an easy toss due to lack of consistency. 18Z looking like its starting to see where it should be snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I'm trying not to get overly caught in verbatim model run QPF/snow output. It comes down to what the general setup features with respect to large scale and mesoscale lift (fgen, lapse rate assist etc), some of which was covered in our long term AFD section. Sometimes all it takes is the rough idea on footprint of the QPF and banding locations to have higher confidence that you can get a swath of overperforming ratios and totals along the lines of what happened Monday. What Friday PM-Saturday has going for it if the setup doesn't change too much is duration. So if similar ingredients come into play like what we had on Monday you could expect higher upside for totals regardless of the raw model outputs based off duration alone. I think part of the possible frustration with the weekend period is that we had several runs of the GFS with decent ensemble support offering up more widespread bigger event potential, while several posts were made outlining why that outcome was rather unlikely. Euro has had similar depiction on evolution for multiple model cycles in a row now, while varying in QPF/snow output and NAM at this point showing an idea on what totals could be like (in I think a narrower swath than shown) if it all works out. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 00z NAM looks decent. On a personal level, I hope it's a bit too far north. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM looks decent. On a personal level, I hope it's a bit too far north. On a personal level, I hope it's spot on! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 0z NAM 0z GFS still significantly different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Yeah, I'd like a shift south of just like one county if at all possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 This year Lake Michigan is upping snow totals on the Wisconsin side more than the Michigan side. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 0z NAM/RGEM/GEM/UKMET continue to have an axis of 2-5”.GFS is still alone in its solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 you can tell we've had a decent run. Board kind of meh regarding this potential moderate fluffer. Interject some lake enhancement and I've seen these surprise quite nicely. I'll take another 3-6" if I can, A month ago we beg for this..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baum said: you can tell we've had a decent run. Board kind of meh regarding this potential moderate fluffer. Interject some lake enhancement and I've seen these surprise quite nicely. I'll take another 3-6" if I can, A month ago we beg for this..... i'd be more interested if i wasn't trying to squeeze a hit out of today somehow, lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: i'd be more interested if i wasn't trying to squeeze a hit out of today somehow, lol 10" or bust by Tuesday morning. I'm still searching for that 50" call for ORD by Tuesday midnight the euro painted last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 overnight guidance was actually p good on this particular event, feels like a lock for wintery appeal and solid totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Yeah 6z NAM looked money for Chi metro. What a stretch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Plumes basically at 3.5 for this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 You southerners appear to be getting your wish, NAM is further south this morning. It's your winter, no doubt about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 z NAM a touch drier and south solid 5-6 inches area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Nice trend for those along I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12z RGEM touch wetter general 7-9 area wide includes 2-3 from tonites event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 hot look, tho some taint in that map from today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12z RGEM touch wetter general 7-9 area wide includes 2-3 from tonites event This would have me pushing 25-26"" of snow depth. Sitting at 18" now. Big Timin' 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: This would have me pushing 25-26"" of snow depth. Sitting at 18" now. Big Timin' Let's put a big dog on top of it next week 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 14 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: This would have me pushing 25-26"" of snow depth. Sitting at 18" now. Big Timin' Holy sheeet! You have an 18” snow depth? Here in Champaign mines at 2”. Amazing what 2 hours north can do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Chambana said: Holy sheeet! You have an 18” snow depth? Here in Champaign mines at 2”. Amazing what 2 hours north can do. Yeah it’s pretty damn wintry out here. Had at least 1” of snow depth since 12/29/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12z NAM @ 51 hrs vs GFS same time. How is it possible for them 2 be 100% different? 12z GFS @ 51 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 12z NAM @ 51 hrs vs GFS same time. How is it possible for them 2 be 100% different? 12z GFS @ 51 hrsTerrible model is terrible.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 43 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Terrible model is terrible. . Normally would think your referring to the NAM outside 36hrs but the GFS seems lost 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I don't normally post long AFD's but since this thread has been somewhat quiet thought this was a good read on this event out of LOT: CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THAT A PERIOD OF STEADY, LIGHT SNOW WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY AS THE DIFFLUENT RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK STREAMS OVERHEAD. WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE "HEAVY" (GENERALLY 0.1-0.3"/HR), SNOW WILL NEVERTHELESS BE STEADY AND GRADUALLY PILE UP WITH TIME. FORECAST LOW-LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVELY DEEP AND SATURATED SNOWFLAKE GROWTH ZONE FROM THE GROUND TO NEARLY 15,000 FEET UP, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VERY FLUFFY SNOW RATIOS IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 20:1 TO 25:1, IF NOT HIGHER. AN ENSEMBLE OF SHORT-TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO DEPICT A SWATH OF 0.15-0.25" OF QPF THAT (WHEN COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FLUFFY RATIOS) WILL LEAD TO A WIDE SWATH OF 3-5" SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE IF RATIOS OR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS END UP HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. THE EXACT LOCATION AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FURTHER REFINEMENT IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES (AND IT SHOULD BE SAID SOME OF THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS ARE PAINTING AREAS NEAR I-80 WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS), BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SNOW WILL FALL ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 6 PM FRIDAY AND 6 PM SATURDAY. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND LONGER TRAVEL TIMES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4-5" seems like a pretty good bet here. Let's overachieve and get 6" though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 same thoughts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 plumes up to 4.5 ORD 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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