Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The winter of the I80 north jackpot continues. Hoping we can see a trend south but not counting on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, StormChaser4Life said: The winter of the I80 north jackpot continues. Hoping we can see a trend south but not counting on it. eh, most other guidance is weaker and farther south. end result is probably somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, purduewx80 said: eh, most other guidance is weaker and farther south. end result is probably somewhere in the middle. One can only hope. Grasping at straws this winter. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 at least rgem didn't get worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: at least rgem didn't get worse maybe a touch north with the heavier band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z GFS and the 12Z NAM are slightly different 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I know which team I'm on. ^ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: The winter of the I80 north jackpot continues. Hoping we can see a trend south but not counting on it. Sorry to say I-80 is a dividing line for multiple storms pretty much every winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, tuanis said: Sorry to say I-80 is a dividing line for multiple storms pretty much every winter. You're not wrong there but it's been extra bad this winter and another sharp cut off always occurs by I74 which I practically sit on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 hours ago, Baum said: interesting not seeing much discussion regarding GFS in theses more under the hood AFD's MKX: Lame. Maybe the worst midwest discussions out there these days. MKX definitely been hit or miss with the AFDs as of late. I think Wood (if I'm recalling the name correctly) typically does a good job with the write ups. Sorry for the OT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 euro south, drier, the usual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM is now officially on on Snow Island there is no model even close to what its showing. Only question is does it just vanish next run or does it take several runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The period from last weekend through this weekend has turned into a big disappointment. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The period from last weekend through this weekend has turned into a big disappointment. We've become MSP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro south, drier, the usual I think we can officially put this to bed. Take your1-2" if you get lucky and hope for a transient lake feed to help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Baum said: I think we can officially put this to bed. Take your1-2" if you get lucky and hope for a transient lake feed to help. Everything other than the GFS has 2-5". Not saying it wont trend down, but that's where we are now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Everything other than the GFS has 2-5". Not saying it wont trend down, but that's where we are now. I hadn't checked out the GEM and and did not bother to check out Euro snow maps, but pretty clear the wide swath of overrunning in a wide area is becoming less to an untrained eye. And yes, I remain optimistic we can pull another moderate event out of this set up. Good to see you feel similar based on current takes. Still 48 hours out and in this pattern much can change quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Everything other than the GFS has 2-5". Not saying it wont trend down, but that's where we are now. Right.. And NAM is slightly higher than that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said: The winter of the I80 north jackpot continues. Hoping we can see a trend south but not counting on it. We're seeing a trend to a nothingburger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 plumes holding that 2-5 look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Gonna ride the NAM hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 works 4 me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: The period from last weekend through this weekend has turned into a big disappointment. Huge disappointment. Besides one 3” snowfall, the remaining 6.7” that has fallen has been from 1” events. The same looks to continue. Getting pixie dust right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 18z NAM NEST is interesting it keeps what appears to lake effect going all day in Lake county before the main snows hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 KLOT (not ricky) First, confidence is increasing that a period of steady snow will occur Saturday as the diffluent right-entrance region of the upper- level jet stream passes overhead. Ensemble QPF from the ECMWF ranges from 0.10" along/south of I-80 to 0.25" along the IL/WI state line. A quick gander at forecast low-level thermodynamic profiles gives credence to very fluffy, perhaps "overperforming" snow ratios with the snowflake growth layer extending well beyond 10,000 feet at times. Plus, a trajectory off Lake Michigan may provide a boost of low-level moisture. Taken altogether, Saturday may end up yet another day to take it slow on the roads due to reduced visibility and accumulations of snow. The current forecast brings 1-2" snow totals from the Kankakee River Valley to I-88, and 2-3" totals from I-88 to the Wisconsin state line. Adjustments upward may be needed in later forecast packages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: KLOT (not ricky) First, confidence is increasing that a period of steady snow will occur Saturday as the diffluent right-entrance region of the upper- level jet stream passes overhead. Ensemble QPF from the ECMWF ranges from 0.10" along/south of I-80 to 0.25" along the IL/WI state line. A quick gander at forecast low-level thermodynamic profiles gives credence to very fluffy, perhaps "overperforming" snow ratios with the snowflake growth layer extending well beyond 10,000 feet at times. Plus, a trajectory off Lake Michigan may provide a boost of low-level moisture. Taken altogether, Saturday may end up yet another day to take it slow on the roads due to reduced visibility and accumulations of snow. The current forecast brings 1-2" snow totals from the Kankakee River Valley to I-88, and 2-3" totals from I-88 to the Wisconsin state line. Adjustments upward may be needed in later forecast packages. Is a LOT AFD worth reading if Ricky didn't write it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ^ easy answer. no question. Carlaw another great read, and seems like quite a bit of good new blood. I think they've been great. Sidenote: ride the Saturday snow trend...third week in a row. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 rgem north and wetter, trying to come into focus now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS is a 1-3 with a 4.4 lollipop over cook county GFS para 3-4 with a 5 lollipop over cook county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I think GFS is underdoing the precip. Nam seems to be more in line with what I think will happen. But we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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