Baum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM seems to agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 End of 0z nam has that weenie look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 hours ago, ILSNOW said: KLOT update (not Ricky) unimpressed. But the combo of Angrysummons and A-L-E-K will be hard to keep down. Thursday through Tuesday... Continued cold conditions are expected through the remainder of the forecast period, including a reinforcing shot of even colder air for the late weekend into early next week. Multiple periods of snow also remain likely, though different portions of the forecast area are favored with each one, and nothing looks overly significant at least into early next week. Is this the update of the old EE rule? The AA rule. When it's in effect, it's a lock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The last time ORD had a 20" snow depth was in February 2011. Does this storm set the table to get there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The last time ORD had a 20" snow depth was in February 2011. Does this storm set the table to get there? Thursday could help and if north side band sets up far enough north tomorrow. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 What's up with the GFS getting more shit each run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The GFS has gone to sh*t over the last few runs. It barely has any snow at all now, certainly nothing in Iowa. One very notable trend over the last couple days of runs is for the moisture source to get whisked away, out of the picture, so there's little left for the PV to squeeze out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: What's up with the GFS getting more shit each run? Too sheared out in the northern stream, not phasing with the southern stream, and dropping the PV further south. All bad things if we want anything good for this region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Also moving the block southeast is going to screw over next week's system too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Stebo said: Too sheared out in the northern stream, not phasing with the southern stream, and dropping the PV further south. All bad things if we want anything good for this region. GEM follows with similar issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Chicago Storm said: GEM follows with similar issues. Too many moving parts, it is going to have something new every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs gonna be bad delayed, but not denied. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 All over the road with every piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 What I get for getting hyped lol. Still think it can come back to a fronto type setup shown on previous runs today. Never bought into the GFS phaser idea, which quickly went away at 12z. EPS is usually a good gauge on things, so we'll see if things can revert back to 12z look or trend down again from 18z. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: What I get for getting hyped lol. Still think it can come back to a fronto type setup shown on previous runs today. Never bought into the GFS phaser idea, which quickly went away at 12z. EPS is usually a good gauge on things, so we'll see if things can revert back to 12z look or trend down again from 18z. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk was 18z EPS close to 12z EPS ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 was 18z EPS close to 12z EPS ?It had backed off from 12z run a bit. The mean was still respectable for 24 hour totals of 1-2+" at 10:1, implying a mean of 0.1 to 0.2" LE. Would expect if things pan out that ratios would be above to well above climo again. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Lololololol. The usual. Get teased in long range and get punted in medium to short range. Really had higher hopes for this pattern. Hopefully it can trend back but as I said before wouldn't shock me to see everything suppressed from the deep cold finally building south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I just find it annoying we keep chasing a day 7 storm, now it looks like the models want to blow up the thing a week from now. We have been chasing that storm for over a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Stebo said: I just find it annoying we keep chasing a day 7 storm, now it looks like the models want to blow up the thing a week from now. We have been chasing that storm for over a week now. Literally just was thinking this. It keeps getting pushed out, then fizzles out, then reappears in long range. Can we please just pull the rabbit out of the hat now?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The Euro is actually a bit north from 12z and is the best of the non-NAM models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 This one sailed a while ago, still should be a narrow band that delivers but sad to see us bungle this pattern so bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2"-5" er while we bide our time waiting for the main event. Not terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, Baum said: 2"-5" er while we bide our time waiting for the main event. Not terrible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 riding the NAM to big totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 interesting not seeing much discussion regarding GFS in theses more under the hood AFD's: QC: THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A BREAK BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ISENTROPIC LIFT, AND DIVERGENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET. DESPITE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT, WE'LL STAY VERY COLD AT THE SURFACE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDING HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MODEL CONSENSUS DEVELOPS A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOT:THERE IS SOME MODEL SUPPORT FOR A SUBTLE MINOR AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TO TRACK ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY LOWER TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BENEATH A REGION OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 130 KT UPPER JET STREAK OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WHILE A COUPLE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SQUEEZE OUT A LITTLE LIGHT QPF ACROSS FAR NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN IL BY 00Z, BETTER CHANCES FOR A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEAR TO COME FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED WAVE TRANSITS THE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA. MODELS VARY WITH TIMING OF THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AXIS DURING THIS PERIOD, THOUGH A GENERAL CONSENSUS TAKES IT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY, WITH SNOW CHANCES DIMINISHING BEYOND SATURDAY EVENING. VARIOUS OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS VARY CONSIDERABLY WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT OF THE QPF AXIS, DIFFERENCES ALSO NOTED IN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF VALUES IN THE 0.10-0.20" RANGE HOWEVER DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. MKX: Lame. Maybe the worst midwest discussions out there these days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Baum said: MKX: Lame. Maybe the worst midwest discussions out there these days. They've gotten bad since Rusty Kapela retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: They've gotten bad since Rusty Kapela retired. Sorry for the little off topic. And not trying to be a smart azz or randomly be negative on someone's performance. But in truth, mostly less than one paragraph descriptions or analysis even in short range situations. I scan these pretty much daily, and have been surprised at the fact you can glean nothing new or in depth from their discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 had a feeling we would get a nice nam run as it baby steps its way south towards other guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM is juiced. Definitely taking the under but can see an advisory level snow for S WI and N IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 12 hours ago, IWXwx said: Is this the update of the old EE rule? The AA rule. When it's in effect, it's a lock. Speaking of... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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